February 3rd, 2008
12:20 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests Obama, Clinton in dead heat in California

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/02/03/art.cali.ap.jpg caption=" Clinton and Obama are tied in California, a new poll shows."]

(CNN) - A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead in California. John Edwards, then still a presidential candidate, registered 11 percent.

If the eventual outcome of the race is as close as the poll suggests, both candidates stand to rack up significant numbers of delegates in the state: On the Democratic side, California awards its 370 delegates proportionately.

The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close - John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters.

California is worth 170 delegates for the Republicans and unlike the Democrats, the winner of the state's primary will be awarded them all.

The poll, conducted January 25-Febuary 1, surveyed 481 likely Republican primary voters and 511 likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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- CNN Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: California • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. COLLECTIVE WILL

    Hillary represents the POSH Americans because those are the only Americans that matter

    February 3, 2008 11:17 am at 11:17 am |
  2. do work

    How is obama going to 'change' the white house? some of his top advisors have worked in Washington for YEARS. He's the same as everyone in washington.

    Do you think he's going to fire all the politicians in washington and start new? Bring in people who have never been in politics to 'change the game?"

    Of course not. He's a fake and you people are falling for it. Get a hold of your emotions and use your brain.

    February 3, 2008 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  3. Honest Voter

    Please America I ask you to make the right choice in this election our troops
    need to come home they are killing themselfs, some of them only children themselfs they dont even know what their fighting for anymore, its not like they are in a country that wants PEACE this war has to be ended its not a matter of I won you won, its a matter of not belonging over in Iraq bring our boys home and let the
    Iraqs kill each other because that country does not want peace.......Please if
    you vote... for the right man BARACK OBAMA 08 YES WE CAN & YES WE WILL
    bring our boys home.Our country will never have this chance again ,so I say vote
    correctly this time.
    BARACK OBAMA 08 *=

    February 3, 2008 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  4. R.M.

    Obama will surely win Cali with the momentum going forward. While I acknowledge that he might not do so well overall in super Tuesday, the race will go on until much later and we will see Obama emerge victorious all the way to white house in November next year.

    February 3, 2008 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  5. yankeedoodle

    This is exciting. With every Obama success I feel pride in my country and hope for our world.

    February 3, 2008 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  6. Brad, Columbia, S.C.

    It can be maddening to watch these polls go up and down as election day approaches. Many times, they don't tell us anything - Obama's "lead" in New Hampshire turned into a loss, and his "close" margin in South Carolina turned into a bloodbath.

    It's best just to wait and see what happens. I'm looking forward to it, but I dare not predict an outcome.

    February 3, 2008 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  7. Pat

    In as mush as I love the both Democratic Presidential Candidates, lets remember that our country has been place at a cross road by president Bush. Hillary will be the best person in my judgment to bring back the desire respect we need. Let's remember that military might will not make the world look at us as leader of the free world. We need to take into consideration world issues that will give us long term peace and stability. Hillary can provide the leadership in addressing these issues. As for John McCain, if he will be around for the next one hundred years to fight this senseless war than I'll consider voting for him. Let's make this country more likable by making the world a peaceful place. My judgment tells me that this year the Democrats position can address these issues and Hillary is better position in achieving these goals.

    February 3, 2008 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  8. Matt

    I don't trust any poll which suggests 18% of Californians have yet to make up their minds. I don't doubt Obama has closed the gap but the fact is anywhere from a quarter to a half of all ballots have already been cast due to early voting in the state. These will favor Clinton overwhelmingly given her early lead and presence of the "Clinton machine" in the state. It'll obviously be much closer than those early polls which showed her leading him at 20+%, but she'll still win. I predict her eventual lead to be anywhere from 5 – 10%.

    February 3, 2008 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  9. Chris

    I want chance. So I am voting for Obama not the lady with 35 year political experience.

    Obama for Change.

    February 3, 2008 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  10. Matt

    I think you've misunderstood the system the Republican party uses to allocate Californian delegates. They are actually awarded on a Congressional district basis, with the person with a plurality in each district gaining that district's 3 delegates. Also, the overall state winner gets an additional 11 delegates.

    February 3, 2008 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  11. matt

    The poll in California proves that character and truthfulness matter. The latest revelation of push polling, a sleazy and political viral tactic employed by the Clintons in California to influence unsuspected voters will back fire and will bring her down. The Clinton campaign did not answer calls or rely to emails when asked about their push polling in California. Lies and misinformation in subtle ways about Obama can only go to certain extent. At the end of the day, people will vote for someone who is honest and truthful.

    As a Democrat, I will vote for a candidate who inspires, who looks to the future and who brings hope to all Americans irrespective of race and color. Hillary has lost my vote and the votes of my circle of friends and relatives. I cannot support a candidate who lies, distort and misrepresent facts. Her consistent lack of character is something that matters most to me as a voter because this election is about inspiration, trust and character.

    February 3, 2008 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  12. CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT

    *** FOR ALL YOU WHO THINK MANDATING INSURANCE IS A BAD IDEA…

    How about those drug users who don't have insurance who OD and have to go to the ER? Who pays for it? WE DO.

    How about welfare moms who have multiple kids just to stay in the system, but they don't have insurance? Who pays for it? WE DO.

    How about young adults who have college loans to pay, or choose to spend their earnings on a fancier vehicle or a new house or go on vacation, so they CHOOSE not to buy that "affordable" health care? What happens when they get in a car accident, and have to be air-lifted to the hospital and have tests and x-rays and surgeries? Who pays for that? WE DO.

    Mandating it will ensure EVERY PERSON has insurance. If they can't afford it, they will get help via tax breaks and subsidies. IF WE DON'T MANDATE IT, EVERY TAXPAYER PAYS FOR THEIR HEALTH CARE!

    Sorry, but I don't want to be stuck paying for people who "choose" not to have health insurance, whether they are greedy, stupid, or just ignorant.

    Obama asked the other night what we would do if they can't afford it – garnish their wages? HECK YES! THEY NEED TO PAY FOR THEIR OWN!

    Get real people. LISTEN to Hillary Clinton. She is not only READY, she is RIGHT FOR OUR COUNTRY!

    HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT 2008

    February 3, 2008 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  13. Juan Carlos(Vegas)

    Are the polls inflated again? What was the difference in NH? 2 digits? Who was leading? WHO WON? LOL
    LOl. Obama 2016.

    February 3, 2008 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  14. Benjamin

    It's not that you have to LIKE the person who you elect President, it's that you TRUST them to do the job, do it right, and do it well.

    That is for all the Obama supporters who want change for the sake of change (despite Hillary would still be change, especially after the last 8 years).

    We need action, not words, not beautiful speeches that move our HEARTS, we need detailed plans that inspire our MINDS!

    February 3, 2008 11:35 am at 11:35 am |
  15. Dan

    The more people get to know Senator Barack Obama the more people are inclined to support him. Change requires unifying leadership - leadership Senator Obama offers right now. If the election were held next week, and more people got to know Obama, Obama would probably take Cally. This late momentum may not be enough.

    Nevertheless, La Opinion and many prominent Hispanic leaders are beginning to realize that Obama is the more honest, unifying leader that is absolutely needed to lead this country in the future. Let's hope more and more folks tune into Obama over the next couple of days.

    PS: I wonder how many Californians mailed in their absentee ballots early for Clinton that are now regretting that decision?

    February 3, 2008 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  16. Larry Freeman

    As a Californian, this result is not surprising.

    Before the South Carolina primary, all of my friends with one exception were supporting Hillary Clinton (mostly based on the reasoning of the NYT endorsement of Hillary).

    But something changed with Bill Clinton's irresponsible attacks on Obama and with Hillary's failure to see that even if democrats do not support Obama because of experience, we are all very proud of what his candidacy represents. He is a vision of hope and an indication that America may be improving as a society.

    Hillary and Bill's attacks on Obama have shown us that she cares more about attaining political office than what is really great about America and what is potentially great about the democratic party. She has also show great weakness and pettiness in the sudden rise in popularity of a political rival.

    Shame on, you, Hillary. 🙁

    Now, all my friends with one exception are supporting Obama. I will most likely vote for Obama on Tuesday. The one person support Hillary is wavering.

    Hillary, if you want my vote, please apologize for your treatment of Obama and let the nation know that your candidacy is about hope, respect, and the great possibilities of the future. And please don't play the race card. In this "political race," it should not be an issue.

    -Larry

    February 3, 2008 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  17. James R

    I believe that it has started.... "YES YOU CAN", and you WILL become the next leader of your once again proud nation Mr. Obama!

    February 3, 2008 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  18. Kyle Columbia SC

    Watch out Hillary this wave is about to hit you. I'm sure all you Hillary supporters have heard how Barack builds this wave of momentum that just wipes out his competition..........

    February 3, 2008 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  19. Jesse

    Just one quick question:

    Are these the same polls that had Hillary losing in New Hampshire?

    February 3, 2008 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  20. COLLECTIVE WILL

    FORCING her own solutions on Americans... SHAME ON YOU HILLARY!!!

    February 3, 2008 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  21. Dennis

    Lets get real.
    Who took this poll, Obama ????

    I have relatives in CA, It's not even close.
    The Media and CNN just seem to have a love affair with Obama, a novelty.
    Would you be so obtuse to vote for a person with literally no experience....

    " VOTE CLINTON "

    February 3, 2008 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  22. Mike

    So how about the other polls? Most show Hillary with up to two digits leads..... typical CNN reporting

    February 3, 2008 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  23. Im4Obama

    The interesting thing is that I believe if Obama wins the primary, he will beat McCain because he will be able to gain Clinton voters.

    However, polls show that Clinton would likely lose against McCain, and I think it may be because Obama voters may not go vote for Clintons (Yes, I wrote the "CLINTONS".)

    Obama '08 & '12

    February 3, 2008 11:42 am at 11:42 am |
  24. Bloggin4Barack

    Let's go. He said he was drafting. Now it's time to pull ahead. California, the country turns its weary eyes to you. Don't let us down.

    February 3, 2008 11:42 am at 11:42 am |
  25. Kerry

    Yes, OBAMA will win this!!

    Go Obama, I love YOU!!

    February 3, 2008 11:43 am at 11:43 am |
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