February 3rd, 2008
12:20 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests Obama, Clinton in dead heat in California

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/02/03/art.cali.ap.jpg caption=" Clinton and Obama are tied in California, a new poll shows."]

(CNN) - A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead in California. John Edwards, then still a presidential candidate, registered 11 percent.

If the eventual outcome of the race is as close as the poll suggests, both candidates stand to rack up significant numbers of delegates in the state: On the Democratic side, California awards its 370 delegates proportionately.

The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close - John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters.

California is worth 170 delegates for the Republicans and unlike the Democrats, the winner of the state's primary will be awarded them all.

The poll, conducted January 25-Febuary 1, surveyed 481 likely Republican primary voters and 511 likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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- CNN Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: California • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Kwaayesnama

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    (¯`'•.¸//(*_*)\\¸.•'´¯)

    Just sharing my views:

    As a loyal Republican I voted for George Bush – One of my biggest mistakes!

    As a Arizona resident I would love to vote for John McCain but because of his stance on Bush’s war of revenge I just can’t.

    So that leaves me – The scandal ridden Clintons or Sen. Barack Obama.

    No question !

    I support Barack Obama and at 60 I recently donated for the first time to a Democratic candidate for any office.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    February 3, 2008 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  2. Joe Ossai, Bedford, NH

    President Obama, I love that sound.

    February 3, 2008 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  3. Tom

    Clinton is way ahead of Obama. Stop trying to sway the voters. Clinton will beat Obama by a landslide.

    February 3, 2008 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  4. Glen, Boston, MA

    Walter Lobo –

    Isn't it rather shallowly presumptuous to presume that simply being a "woman" will change the White House? That just seems very sexist and denies the humanity of that woman to determine whether SHE is most qualified to change the White House. After all, putting a chimpanzee in the White House would certainly be a far greater change (well, maybe that's a bad example given our current Resident).

    February 3, 2008 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  5. Chris

    Can you explain the relationship of this poll to the other CA state polls? Perhaps analyzing the significance/insignificance of the way it was conducted? The way CNN cites poll numbers – more often than not to suggest the inevitability of Obama's rise – is fairly irresponsible. We already saw the inconclusiveness of polls in one state contest – why is CNN so biased toward the nomination of Obama? I'm totally excited that Oprah can have the same affect on elections as she can have on book sales – oh James Frey, where are you now?

    February 3, 2008 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  6. maynard

    hillary clinton is not presidential material..... the last name is the clincher.
    SORRY HILLARY BUT I CAN NOT VOTE FOR YOU BECAUSE OF YOUR LAST NAME. 8 YEARS OF THAT NAME IS ENOUGH

    February 3, 2008 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  7. Paula in Virgina

    This is hopeful news!

    February 3, 2008 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  8. Marty, Orlando Fl

    That's great news!!!
    YES WE CAN AMERICA!

    Obama '08 '12

    February 3, 2008 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  9. Pat

    The media seems to be campaigning for Obama. Is this because he's a man or because he's African American? Hillary Clinton is hands down the best candidate for this country. Obama says he wants no part of old Washington. He's all about change but he certainly has a lot of old Washington supporters. How do you get older than Ted Kennedy? What is old Washington hoping he will do for them? Maybe they feel that because he's so green they can push him around.

    February 3, 2008 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm |
  10. Ian in TX

    To Walter Lobo – the most significant change in the presidency should not be based on a candidate's anatomy but on who is best able to lead our country in a new direction! Are there any policy ideas from Senator Clinton that you support, or are you merely voting for someone based on gender? If so, shame on you.

    And douadavid – can you provide the sampling size and margin of error for your personal poll? I don't believe any polls currently have Obama leading, but I find a 30-point deficit somewhat incredulous.

    February 3, 2008 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm |
  11. Christopher

    Go Obama Go can't wait to see you in White house. Its time for change. Also time to end the dynasty rule in USA. No more Bushes and Clintons. We need a new generation of leaders.. God please help us..

    February 3, 2008 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  12. Doc Jerome

    It was inevitable that the Clinton's DNC backed machine would have it's collective blindfold removed from the eyes of the California voter by the sentiment, or dare I say, the incredible sense of the "urgency of now," thereby threatening the thinly veiled alliances of the purveyors of broken government and purchased political support. This signals the end of the status quo politician whose vote can be had by peddling his constituents intrests in return for money and mediocre leadership.

    Obama '08

    Can U Feel It?

    February 3, 2008 12:37 pm at 12:37 pm |
  13. dallas

    Obama 2008! No violations of 22nd for America (because we all kow they'd like to try and get around that).

    there have been dozens upon dozens of individuals who have held national security positions including a former secretary of the Army who are supporting Obama.

    He can lead with strength and dignity. No more Clinton drama please.

    February 3, 2008 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  14. Abi

    ah! CNN!! We shall see where this is gonna go with Obama!

    February 3, 2008 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  15. mikesfdem

    in ca 511 dem is not a good sample in a state that has over million plus people living in the state

    February 3, 2008 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  16. Hung

    If Obama win the nomination, I will vote for J McCain instead.
    Hillary ' 08

    February 3, 2008 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  17. Mary R

    I think Senator Clinton would make a good president, i am in agreement with what she stands for.

    February 3, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  18. Harvey, Tampa, FL

    I think we should take a poll of all polls out there. Then with data in hand, take yet another poll to see if anyone believes in the last poll. Then, and only then, will we know who's going to win the white house...

    February 3, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  19. lugina

    Same like in New Hampshire....

    February 3, 2008 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  20. John (PA)

    Judging by the comments here, some people still think that Hillary is much more experienced than Barack. He has been in elected office for longer. What benefit does Hillary supposedly get from having an extra couple years in the Senate? By the time you are there for a year you know how things work. If anything less time in the senate is a good thing.

    Some people also think that Hillary has a better chance to win the general election than Barack. That is just not true- look at the polls. Obama is winning over conservative independents and even some republicans like never before.

    There are lots of people that would vote for Obama but never for Hillary (conservative independents), but I can't see there being all that many people voting for Hillary but never for Obama.

    February 3, 2008 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  21. Kevin FL

    Some Polls Show Clinton Leads by a huge margin your poll show its a dead heat.. So with that being said let the voters make there choice not the polls.. CLINTON/OBAMA 08

    February 3, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  22. Aaron

    Hillary, if elected, would be just another 50.1% president. Its time for a president that all Americans can get behind. Hillary cannot end partisanship, she can only fan the flames higher.

    February 3, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  23. lw

    Saw on Meet the Press where this poll was unreliable.

    February 3, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  24. Upset American

    I find it very interesting you wont show my comment the media is so one sided for Obama

    February 3, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  25. D McKee

    Obama is a short distance runner. Hillary is a long distance runner. Go figure!

    February 3, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
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