February 3rd, 2008
12:20 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests Obama, Clinton in dead heat in California

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/02/03/art.cali.ap.jpg caption=" Clinton and Obama are tied in California, a new poll shows."]

(CNN) - A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead in California. John Edwards, then still a presidential candidate, registered 11 percent.

If the eventual outcome of the race is as close as the poll suggests, both candidates stand to rack up significant numbers of delegates in the state: On the Democratic side, California awards its 370 delegates proportionately.

The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close - John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters.

California is worth 170 delegates for the Republicans and unlike the Democrats, the winner of the state's primary will be awarded them all.

The poll, conducted January 25-Febuary 1, surveyed 481 likely Republican primary voters and 511 likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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- CNN Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: California • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Lenore Z.

    Vote to win–OBAMA. No Republican and no Independents will ever vote for Hillary, and neither will a lot of Democrats. Only die-hard Democrats imagine she is electable.
    Looks like some Edwards voters have shifted to Obama, too. Like me.

    February 3, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  2. Nate Wonder

    Yes we can!!!

    Sí se puede!

    Latinos for Obama!!!
    Obama brings together rural and urban, black latino asian and white, men and women, young and old, poor and wealthy America!!!

    Give us a real leader America!!!

    America 08'

    Obama 08'

    February 3, 2008 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  3. Tega

    CNN stop supporting Hillary Clinton by propping up this whole notion of a Clinton/Obama Ticket. I find this very disgusting.

    February 3, 2008 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  4. steven

    cnn pols seems always wrong.... they should ban polls especially CNN.... the media glorifies Obama to much

    February 3, 2008 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  5. R.M.

    Adam, there has been many that have doubted hope and change in the past and there will be many in the future but they don't know the power of hope and change. They do not know the power of unity. We will win against all these odds and give hope and change a fresh new meaning.

    February 3, 2008 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  6. Boomer for Obama

    ...and that is without cell phones, and Independents!!!

    February 3, 2008 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  7. Rodney D Dallas, TX

    Sen. Obama is a leader. When the man's feet hit the ground and he campains, the poll numbers change dramatically. This has been true since he anounced his candidacy. That is why the victory party Hillary had in Florida was a joke. If he would have campaigned in FL, her lead would have decreased. Don't ge mad Clinton lovers. The man just has it. Get out of the way or you will get run over!!!!!
    The movement continues. Say hello, to the next El Presidente!!!!!

    February 3, 2008 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  8. Cindy Stonum

    Your advertisement states "All politics, all the time......" If this is your statement, why do we never have the opportunity to see Ron Paul on your station? He is never mentioned, as if he doesn't exist. We the American people would like to see more Ron Paul on your channel. Who are you to deny us? What are you afraid of? Give us what we want.

    February 3, 2008 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  9. Tim Wals

    The way the media has hyped up Obama is a crime. The nieve people in the country will buy into this like they buy into bubblegum movies that are hyped for months and then end up being garbage. Think for yourselves and don't let the media hype you into voting for Obama. THINK first. This is the same media that never questioned G.W. Bush during the dark years he was president (and still don't!). The truth is Obama is a rookie, don't vote for him because he is black or he has a pretty face! Let us be a little deeper than that.

    February 3, 2008 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  10. Thomas For Hillary

    You know I just can't wait until Super Tuesday when egg is going to be all on the face of Obama and the "supporters". It's says the polls suggest and it say 18% haven't made up their minds. Hillary is going to win California, and lot of places Super Tuesday. The media is trying their best to help Obama but it's not going to work.

    Hillary 2008!

    February 3, 2008 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  11. Beto

    Hillary is battle tested and knows the ropes. She was attacked and smeared for 8 years and remains standing. The media that is pro-Obama will turn on him if he gets elected. Remember how Gore was depicted as a moron and Bush as a genius in 2000?

    February 3, 2008 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  12. Johnson

    I'm not sure why people think that the media is in love with Obama. They say bad things about Obama just like they say bad things about Hillary. Hillary supporters jump on the Media the moment they say anything good about Obama saying that its all the media's fault. Yet when the rolls are reversed they are always they don't make the same argument.

    I'm glad the polls are showing that Obama is catching up. People need to start realizing that Americans are excited for this election because of Obama. If you are a democrat you need to think before you act. This surge of popularism for the democratic party came from Obama. If you remove him from the picture, there won't be as many votes left over for Hillary. Hillary can not beat McCain while Obama can. People like McCain because of his honor and the fact that he was a war hero.

    If its McCain vs Hillary, I wouldn't even know who to vote for.

    February 3, 2008 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  13. gbeatty

    Wrong John. The Republicans will stop the Obama "movement" dead in its tracks in Nov. What country have you been living in? There is a reason that Karl Rove was advising Obama–he knows the power of racism in the hands of the Right, AND he is afraid of Hillary.

    Obama is inexperienced and shallow; he is a poster and a sound-bite. If in the unlikely event that he were elected in a general election, he will fail miserably at a time when such failure couldnt be more dangerous, here and abroad. He lacks the depth, maturity, and experience to perform in the international arena. Grow up and join the real world. Progress in America does not happen through sweeping change. Progress is incremental and painful. It requires compromise and hard work and guts. This is what Hillary understands.

    Enough of our voting our emotions-that's what got us George Bush. Wake up, grow up, and START THINKING.

    Hopefully our collective common sense will be the Imodium that will effectively treat this "movement".


    February 3, 2008 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  14. Fight to Unite!!!!!

    Countdown on delegates:
    Obama = 63 Check,
    Clinton = 48 Check
    Countdown to Launch Super Tuesday: 2, 1, 0
    Ladies and gentlemen we have launch
    We have lock-on...
    Target locked on...
    We have intercept...
    Clinton war machine destroyed

    February 3, 2008 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  15. Tom

    I will vote for Obama if he is nominated and I am a long standing Republican. I will not vote for Mc Cain against Obama; however, if Hillary is nominated I ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT VOTE FOR HER. I hope the Democratic Party realizes his cross over appeal and Hillary’s lack of appeal.

    February 3, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  16. tomdavie

    ramussen just put out the latest updated poll showing clinton with an 11 point lead nationwide.

    Every poll shows Clinton ahead by a double digit or high single digit margin EXCEPT Zolgby.

    So I did some digging into Zolgby , and they REFUSE to publish their poll results. No indication of age, gender or any other factors. Which congressional districts they used.


    They also chuck out people who already PRE VOTED.

    February 3, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  17. tickered

    Change is not about What sits in the President's chair (gender/race).
    Change is about Who sits in the President's chair most likely to make changes in government.

    Vote for WHO you think will make the changes you desire.

    Sadly, a close contest still means we are a divided people. Hopefully whoever wins will be able to unite people together.

    February 3, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  18. DR

    Your conducting of polls is flawed and skewed! Republicans hope to have an election to decide between Obama and McCain and that is why you are publishing these statistics. Not going to happen! Californians have plenty of brains to use and do not need your statistics to decide their vote.

    February 3, 2008 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  19. CL

    18% undecided 2 days away? i doubt it. stop cherry picking the polls just to highlight obama. there are a lot of other polls showing her ahead – more so than tied – let's report them all.

    go hill – take california – take super tuesday.

    February 3, 2008 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  20. bob

    Even though i am a proud conservative republican,i was beginng to like Obama,but since Moveon.org is endorsing him, will skyrocket him right to the bottom of the poles.You know the Clintons are behind this endorsement to move the focus of Moveon.org away from Hillary.If Obama if you are truly interested in being our President have some guts and reject this endorsement.

    February 3, 2008 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  21. Jimmi Mac

    Divide the nation....with the most divisive political hack ever to come down the pike.....socialism is the future........confiscate wages to pay for Clintons' hairbrained schemes.......................China will one day economically ruin and control the USA.........Elect Clinton...........sounds like a great future.......NOT!...Vote GOP and stop the madness, Clinton is pathetic and 50% of America will absolutely loath this women is she were to get elected...............sounds good to me..........payback for the relentless criticism of Bush.........divide America once and for all......AWESOME.........starts on day one with Clinton!

    February 3, 2008 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  22. Eritrea

    Go Obama, yes we can 08

    February 3, 2008 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  23. matt UK

    IF YOU WANT THE DREAM TICKET- VOTE FOR HILLARY. She will nominate Obama for VP without a shadow of a doubt wherever you ask or inquire, but he will not do the same for her. and if he cant reach out as far as clinton, i fail to see how he can reach out as far as republicans.

    If that doesn't clinch it for you, and neither will the issues, then what can?

    February 3, 2008 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  24. Nancy

    Senator Obama is the candidate who can win. He will unite this country. The Republicans are salivating. They are hopeful Hillary wins the nomination. All the garbage The Clinton's wrought in the 90's will be brought out. We will relive the scandals. Senator Obama has vision and great insight. Where was Hillary's insight on the war? Please let’s move forward and not backward.

    February 3, 2008 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  25. MJ - Bethlehem, PA

    People are finally 'getting it'..and they are awakening with a new sense of direction and HOPE for this country. The below paragraph from the Birmingham News endorsement for Barack Obama confirms this!

    "Clinton touts her experience and her ability to get things done. Unfortunately for Democrats, she carries enough baggage to fill an airport luggage carousel. And her husband's heavyhanded (and hardly presidential) treatment of Obama hasn't played well with many. In the general election, Republicans will remind voters of every problem, real and imagined, from the Clintons' eight years in the White House."

    February 3, 2008 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
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