February 3rd, 2008
12:20 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests Obama, Clinton in dead heat in California

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/02/03/art.cali.ap.jpg caption=" Clinton and Obama are tied in California, a new poll shows."]

(CNN) - A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead in California. John Edwards, then still a presidential candidate, registered 11 percent.

If the eventual outcome of the race is as close as the poll suggests, both candidates stand to rack up significant numbers of delegates in the state: On the Democratic side, California awards its 370 delegates proportionately.

The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close - John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters.

California is worth 170 delegates for the Republicans and unlike the Democrats, the winner of the state's primary will be awarded them all.

The poll, conducted January 25-Febuary 1, surveyed 481 likely Republican primary voters and 511 likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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- CNN Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: California • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. bry

    Those polls are not taking into account the percentage of Independents and Republicans you can add on to Obama'a total, that you can't add to Hillary's.
    Everyone should check out the new "YES WE CAN" music video by Will I. Am on Youtube. It's incredible.

    February 3, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  2. Joshua

    If you do not know what Barack Obama is talking about by now, you have not been listening.

    February 3, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  3. Eric, San Diego

    I voted for Edwards! Hillary and Barack are unacceptable.

    February 3, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  4. Leo

    For those of you listening to Hillary say, "Hope to do what? ... to change what?" Anyone listening to Mr. Obama's speeches know better. Trust me, Hillary knows better too. What do you want to change? Did Mr. Obama not say repeatedly that change is from the bottom up? He is listening to us just as he did on the streets of Chicago helping poor people there. I am from Chicago. This man is for real, people. He will change what we want to change, not what he wants to change to make a better name for himself. This man is the real thing so do not be misguided. Before listening to anything a person may say against this man, listen to Mr. Obama himself. Listen to his speeches (over and over, I have). He is real and it would be a grave mistake on the part of the people of this country to not get this man into the White House. Thx.

    February 3, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  5. Marty

    If Obama gets the democratic nomination I will vote for a republican president for the first time in my life. All Obama does is make pretty talk, but he has not said anything specific to back it up.

    Looks to me like CNN is now trying to push Obama, as they are showing his speach on TV now. Let's have equal time guys.

    February 3, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  6. Your Conscience

    Infinite Derision and Devision vote for Hillary

    Want a warrior to lock horns and fight in DC vote Hillary

    Want to go backward vote Hillary

    Want to accept her experience with no need for her to open Clinton library records vote Hillary

    Want a candidate with more corporate donors than citizens vote Hillary.


    Why would any sane, rationale, forward thinking voter actually vote for Hillary?

    Time to turn the page America.

    Gobama 08

    February 3, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  7. tony

    That poll is not the best one. It includes a lot of Edwards support. The total vote for Obama and Clinton is only 70 percent. So that's a whopping thirty percent unaccounted for. Most of the other polls show Clinton winnng - with far fewer undecides. Check out realclearpolitics.com and pollster.com.

    February 3, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  8. James Simpson

    no matter what they should be on the same ticket.

    Hillary in N.Y.

    February 3, 2008 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  9. ZALIE


    February 3, 2008 02:22 pm at 2:22 pm |
  10. eileen swank

    COLLECTIVE WILL February 3, 2008 11:17 am ET
    Hillary represents the POSH Americans because those are the only Americans that matter

    WRONG – More financially stable people are voting for Obama and economically disadvantaged people are voting for Hillary. You have it backward.

    February 3, 2008 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  11. monique

    if people listen and listen good, hillary should not have a problem. obama is a fast talker, and over talk himself. a fast talker always stumble sooner or later, whoever would vote for a guy that was never heard tell of until now, what have he did. we know what hillary have done.

    February 3, 2008 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  12. Odi

    To all that say that Obama's main claim is that he is a speech maker; I would like to say that Hillary's main claim is that her husband is Bill Clinton.

    February 3, 2008 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  13. Lana

    After much consideration, I can not in good conscience vote for Obama. Had Obama been a woman he would not have even made it this far. He would have been mocked and jeered at for his sappy rhetoric and lack of substance. I really feel that sexism is alive and well in America. Hillary no matter what you think about the "Clintons" has good ideas that will help pull America out of the disaster that it is in right now. How can people think that Obama will be able to fix the economy, change our foreign policy, fix the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, tighten our borders, reform immigration, and make all these wild promises he has with no experience on how thinks work in Washington. He will not be able to hold up on any of his promises and he lacks those fierce negotiating skills which Hillary has. He lacks an understanding of how things work in Washington. He will not change Washington overnight so stop believing this fluff he has been giving us. It feels like people that follow him are a cult. The only thing I keep hearing from this is change and yes we can with no meat to it. It means nothing if it can not change the nightmarish Bush years. People honestly believe that he is gonna go there with a magic wand and wave it over the government and everything will become this perfect utopian. At the end of the day he actually has to be able to do something in the White House. People be honest and real with yourselves. This is a critical election because of the barrage of issues that one must face in the White house. You can not send a newbie there to fix things. You send a workhorse. Please for the sake of our country, our future, our children rethink drinking this koolaid that the media has feed us about Obamania.

    February 3, 2008 03:08 pm at 3:08 pm |
  14. California Voter


    As you said, you have to TRUST the person you're voting for. Anybody that trusts Hillary Clinton, Mark Penn, and Bill Clinton after watching them the past month is delusional. You may still want to vote for her because you think it's time we had a woman President or for some other reason, but TRUST? Are you serious?

    I'm voting for Barack not because I have some idealistic view of him as a choir boy but I certainly think my chances of getting the truth out of an Obama White House are loads better. A Clinton White House might have different priorities than the current Administration, but their modus operandi are IDENTICAL. Just one example is her refusal to release her White House records. Sound familiar? Yes, it did to me too.

    February 3, 2008 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |
  15. Kyle

    WASHINGTON (AP) Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she might be willing to have workers' wages garnisheed if they refuse to buy health insurance to achieve coverage for all Americans. The New York senator has criticized presidential rival Barack Obama for pushing a health plan that would not require universal coverage. Clinton has not always specified the enforcement measures she would embrace, but when pressed during a television interview, she said: "I think there are a number of mechanisms" that are possible, including "going after people's wages, automatic enrollment."

    February 3, 2008 03:25 pm at 3:25 pm |
  16. Roger

    To JA Cook,

    Clinton was asked to stay away from Al Gore's 2000 campaigh because Clinton will overshadow Al Gore since Clinton appears more superior and skillful. Gore's lost in 2000 is just Republican's long 8 years organized come back after those extreme wealthiest are so fearful of tax raise and they can not see another democrate get into White House. Bush is a perfect puppy to those wealthiest, and Bush's 8 year proves already who benefit the most.

    Only Clinton has the skills to restore America, Obama is just a good public speaker, that is not Hope.

    Vote for Hillary!!

    February 3, 2008 03:26 pm at 3:26 pm |
  17. Roz

    GO HILLARY! Obama is going to give Illegals everything up front and hope they comply and apply for citizenship later. STOP HIM NOW!

    February 3, 2008 03:35 pm at 3:35 pm |
  18. Jim

    "36% + 34% = 70% . Even with the addtion of 18% undecided the total is only 88%. What about the other (100% – 88%) = 12% . Who are they going to vote for? Hhhmmmm, and we wonder why polls are wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
    Exactly...based on these numbers, we really have 30% "undecided" instead of the 10% or so that were "undecided" yesterday. The media seems to be doing everything possible to bring down Hillary on Tuesday. I hope the Democrats know what they are doing this time. Somehow, I doubt they do. This election is for the Democrats to lose. Unfortunately, they know how to lose elections all to well.

    February 3, 2008 03:38 pm at 3:38 pm |
  19. California voter

    What is Obama going to change?? I am mystified still. Is he going to eliminate the House and Senate? Is he going to magically rid Washington D.C. of all the lobbyists and other special interest groups? Would his appointees be "Washington insiders"?
    By the way, a Senator by definition is a Washington insider.

    A much bigger change would be for a woman to be President of the United States. We already know what the men can do! Go Hillary!

    February 3, 2008 03:44 pm at 3:44 pm |
  20. Dem08

    Meet the Press this morning also said that you can not trust this poll, that its inconcievable that at this time there could be 36-34 with 18 undecided. Plus, who is the 12% thats not counted for go to.

    Tuesday will be the true test, lets wait and see who votes, and who has already voted.

    February 3, 2008 03:49 pm at 3:49 pm |
  21. Nate

    I get to cast my vote on Tuesday!!!!! And Hillary has got it!!!!! Sorry, nothing against Obama, but all his supporters want to do is bash Hillary. She's more qualified and has more experience. He may give her a run for her money, but she WILL be the victor in the end. Obama supporters, you speak about change so much.....CHANGE your attitudes!!!!!!!!

    Hillary ALL the Way!!!!!!!!

    February 3, 2008 03:50 pm at 3:50 pm |
  22. Diggs' Crew

    Obama 08.............YES We Can!

    February 3, 2008 03:50 pm at 3:50 pm |
  23. Nathan (from Canada)

    As a Canadian, closely watching the American election, I'm amazed at what I see. First, 4 years of Bush Sr. Then 8 years of Clinton. Then 8 years of Bush Jr. Now (potentially) 4 years of Clinton. This adds up to a MINIMUM of 24 years of 2 families basically running the country. (And we hear BOTH candidates speaking of "change.")

    Now if you LIKE what's been happening in America since 1989, and you want to see more of it...by all means you ought to support Hillary Clinton. On the other hand, if you DON'T like the direction, it's rather obvious that she's a poor choice. You don't really think she's going to "about-face" on her own past, do you?

    From a Canadian perspective, I see the USA losing influence internationally and losing respect world wide. I see huge financial problems looming in the direct path of the USA. Our Canadian dollar has risen approximately 50% against the US dollar in the past 3 years and this is due to financial issues Americans face.

    One thing is certain, American citizens will get the government they deserve.

    February 3, 2008 03:51 pm at 3:51 pm |
  24. Lisa

    Hillary SUCKS! This Mama is votin Obama!!!!!!

    Mama's 4
    OBAMA 08

    February 3, 2008 03:51 pm at 3:51 pm |
  25. John, Coralville, IA

    As a resident of Iowa and supporter of Obama, I am very excited about seeing the "Super Tuesday" results. I listened to Obama in April 2007 speak in front of thousands of people in Iowa City, and appreciated his extra effort to double back to shake my hand before the event. His message is a stark contrast to all of the other candidates, and is a refreshing change from the past.
    If you don't think his ideas and experience are sufficient, do a little research. He has many great ideas and will surround himself with competent people, and doesn't owe the political favors that will muddy his ideas and resolve.

    Vote Obama 2008!

    February 3, 2008 03:51 pm at 3:51 pm |
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