February 3rd, 2008
12:20 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests Obama, Clinton in dead heat in California

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/02/03/art.cali.ap.jpg caption=" Clinton and Obama are tied in California, a new poll shows."]

(CNN) - A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead in California. John Edwards, then still a presidential candidate, registered 11 percent.

If the eventual outcome of the race is as close as the poll suggests, both candidates stand to rack up significant numbers of delegates in the state: On the Democratic side, California awards its 370 delegates proportionately.

The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close - John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters.

California is worth 170 delegates for the Republicans and unlike the Democrats, the winner of the state's primary will be awarded them all.

The poll, conducted January 25-Febuary 1, surveyed 481 likely Republican primary voters and 511 likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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- CNN Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: California • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Greg, CA

    New slogan from California:

    GO (away) HILLARY!!!

    February 3, 2008 03:53 pm at 3:53 pm |
  2. Jessi

    Obama has made many poignant promises...not just for the sake of being poetic, but for the sake of stirring up some emotion and feeling in an otherwise apathetic country.

    We're sick of the political machine called Washington. In my mind, Hilary can make as many jabs at him for being "inexperienced", because that only means he's had less time to form rooted ties to private party interest groups, washington lobbyists, and wealthy business execs.

    She's just like every other smooth talking politician with a (slightly) higher voice.

    Keep the tears coming Hilary. You're gonna need 'em.

    February 3, 2008 04:00 pm at 4:00 pm |
  3. Flem

    People are finally waking up to see Hillary as the shameless liar that she is. This is good to see. The Clintons need to be served up a gigantic piece of humble pie on Tuesday.

    It's really a choice between a liar and a visionary (just to clarify for the folks who still choose to bury their heads in the sand: Hillary is the liar).

    GO OBAMA!!!

    February 3, 2008 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  4. Toby Monte

    How is it possible that 44% of the country believe that Hillary Clinton will do anything to win, including embarrasing the country, and then those same people vote for her? We should value integrity and then vote for someone who will represent us in a way that makes us proud to be Americans. Go Obama!!

    February 3, 2008 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  5. herbert

    People say Obama is black , anyway that was old school let faces it ,the Clinton have try to make this primary to be about race, and sex which is indeed a stupid and selfish political tactic. first of all, Mr. Obama is not black .He is 50% white and 50% black so he is neither black nor white is therefore the true reflection of our noble society where race is a blessing and not an issue. Secondly ,Obama is well knowledgeable, with a vivid judgment ,and he does understand the demography of America because of his experience and judgment on issue which are a great challenge for the twenty first century on issue like foreign policy, economic ,race, sex, security, healthcare, and immigration .He is the only person that can unite the country bring Republican , Democrats together and help our economy to grow by stopping the immigration of jobs oversea by Huge Americans Company which depend on cheap labor at the expense of America consumer.

    February 3, 2008 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  6. Aileen, Bosnia

    Immature Americans voting for a rookie! – It can only happen in America!

    Rest of the world is waiting for seasoned, hard-working stateswoman Hillary Clinton!

    February 3, 2008 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  7. mary

    Obama makes his issue on the war says he never voted for it.Give me a break
    he was not even in the Senate so how could he vote just by saying so.
    Hillary and the rest of the congress and senate voted becouse they thought Bush was going to have the inspector go back in which he did not so who are you going
    to blame all of the Senate and Congrerss for voting. That is one reason we have no help around the world to help us its becouse of Bush dnd onley Bush the rest of the
    world wanted to see what the inspector found Bush was to to go to war.
    And how do we realley know how Obama would vote he was not their
    to see the facts that were their. I for one do not like war I have seen alot of it
    in my time. But if their was a poll out asking all the Americans to vote to go to war or not i would have voted yes becouse American had been attacked and we were not sure if Iraq had anything to do with it or not at least I was not sure and I belive
    if asked that question 95% would have said yes becouse we were hurt and wanted some one to pay for it. But kowing what I know now and if I had the facts
    the answer would have been no. think about it would you have voted yes or no.
    And i wish Obama stop bring it up we know how Hillary voted and why
    he keeps beating an old drum and I for one is tired. So when you vote
    make the right choice.

    February 3, 2008 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  8. Mark

    I don't think people realize that California voters were allowed to mail in their ballots weeks prior to February 5th well before this late surge by Obams's campaign. During that time HIlary was by far the cear frontrunner in California. I think alot of Obama supporters will be disappointed come tuesday. Go Hillary.

    February 3, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  9. CHERYL

    THIS IS WHAT THE MEDIA WOULD LIKE YOU TO BELIEVE! JUST YESTERDAY THEY REPORTED THAT HILLARY WAS AHEAD 60/40! THEY WILL STOP AT NOTHING IN THEIR DESPERATION! ON TUESDAY WE WILL SEE WHO THE WINNER IS! I CANNOT WAIT TO HEAR OBAMA'S RESPONSE THEN! THE PEOPLE OF THIS GREAT COUNTRY WOULD NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF VOTING FOR SOMEONE THAT HAS NO EXPERIENCE AND NO ACCOMPLISHMENTS! HILLARY HAS WORKED ON BOTH HEALTH CARE AND THE ECONOMY FOR YEARS ! SO I SAY THERE IS NO QUESTION! COMPARE OUR COUNTRY NOW TO WHAT IT WAS WHEN BILL WAS IN! THATS WHY HILLARY HAS OLDER VOTERS BECAUSE THEY KNOW THIS! YOUNG PEOPLE ARE LURED BY ALL THE POSITIVE PRESS GIVEN TO OBAMA, BY PEOPLE WHO KNOW NOTHING ABOUT POLITICS! THAT IS WHY MY VOTE GOES TO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!
    **************************FLORIDIANS FOR HILLARY*********************************

    February 3, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  10. Californian voter

    Obama should sell Amway products because he has an amazing ability to sell his crap to suckers!

    February 3, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  11. Seam, Tampa, FL

    Hillary can have the popular vote; Obama will rake up the delegates and cruise to victory. Just ask Al Gore how important the popular vote was in 2000.

    Obama 08 – It's a movement like no other in the history of politics. Wake up and recognize.

    February 3, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  12. Amanda

    A Newsweek reader wrote:

    "While she (Hillary) may have great ideas and programs she might not be able to get much done. Her negatives are so high with rebublicans and many independints that she may be stymied on day one and it would only take 41 republicans in the senate to shut off any change that shey may want to achieve. Barack Obama on the other hand, has made a life's work of dealing with republicans in order to get things done. He is often willing to take half a loaf if that moves his ideas forward. Hillary is not and we can't go another four or eight years of not being able to get past the Washington gridlock."

    OBAMA '08

    February 3, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  13. Manuel, Pearland, TX

    I'd prefer not to have a president run the country on "hope".

    February 3, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  14. Katy Hill Prescott Az.

    I hope everyone heard what Hillary said about garnishing wages of those who don't purchase health care. We already have the IRS and child support doing that now she wants to add health care too?

    February 3, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  15. Hillary Needs Obama He Doesn't Need Her

    Hillary does need Obama's voters. He doesn't need hers.

    No dream ticket...don't even go there. Hillary wants to spin it that way...she needs people to think they get not only 2 for the price of one vote but 3...Her, BillyBoy and Obama. Don't buy into that.

    Do you see Obama spinning Hillary as his VP or just running his own race?

    February 3, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  16. Hillary Needs Obama He Doesn't Need Her

    Hillary needs Obama's voters...he doesn't need her.

    She spins the dream team....He doesn't. He is just running his own campaign and P.S. is winning.

    February 3, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  17. Juan Carlos(Vegas)

    Will the misogynist win next Tuesday?

    February 3, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  18. jon

    another response to "clinton for president":

    Oh my god! Really, is it such a shock that the U.S. has such poor political leadership when our citizens can't put together a sensible analysis of an issue. In your own posting you say that we are supporting all of these 'deadbeats', druggies, welfare moms, etc. because we pay for their hospital visits. First of all, this isn't true. If it was true, there would be no issue with healthcare. Everyone would be happy because we all have healthcare. Obviously, that's not the case.

    But then you turn around and suggest that if we mandate that they buy insurance, it would somehow save us money....even though we would have to subsidize it for those who can't afford it...which is basically most people who don't have insurance now.

    On top of that, if we mandate insurance, it's quite clear that the quality of our healthcare system will sink even lower than it already is, behind that of many other countries.

    February 3, 2008 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  19. Ed, NC

    How can Hillary say a Clinton cleaned up the mess when her husband disgraced the office?

    February 3, 2008 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  20. Lilly

    Come on fellow Californians! Give America back what it so desperately needs; a leader who can tackle the issues that are most pressing to our nation. Give us Hillary Clinton!

    February 3, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  21. chinshihtang

    I'm doing a more serious spreadsheet analysis for tomorrow, but I'll go with some intuitive prediction (based on a national 46-46 tie, with 8% "OTHER" or "True Undecided" (subject to decision in the last day) after Edwards votes are allocated:

    Unofficial National Primary popular vote: 50-47 Clinton
    Feb. 5 delegates won: Obama 870-810 (one undecided)
    States won: Clinton 13-8 (not counting Amer. Samoa, Americans Abroad)

    Given this split decision,
    the key to claiming a Perceived Victory is California. Obama will edge Clinton there, 48-46, and win the delegate count 205-165. By a narrow margin, Obama will be perceived to have the edge coming of Super Tuesday, though this will not be established until well into Super Wednesday (EST).

    February 3, 2008 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm |
  22. Oliver, East Los Angeles

    Obama hasn't given one detail about how he is going to change things in California, not one.

    Just like he hasn't given one detail of how he is going to change America.

    All he says over and over and over is I WILL CHANGE & I WILL UNITE.

    BUSH said he would change Washington and unite, and just like Obama he told people what they wanted to hear.

    Obama like BUSH lacks experience, its time we vote for someone who is the most qualified for the job!

    This is not a personality contest. People voted for BUSH over GORE because they said they thought BUSH was the kind of guy you could have a beer with. Now people like Obama because he "SPEAKS SO WELL. "

    Wake up America, we need a track record not empty speeches about change.

    February 3, 2008 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  23. A. M. Goshert

    My main concern about voting for Hiliary is the influence Bill Clinton will have on Hiliary's Presidency. Will he be the president making the decisions???? Also if not what will he do???? Will he be able to keep his mouth shut if she doesn't do what he thinks she should.?

    February 3, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  24. AJ, IL

    The wife of California Governor, "The Terminator" Maria Shiver, just endorsed Obama at the Obama UCLA rally with Oprah, Caroline Kennedy, and Michelle Obama!

    Obama in 08!

    February 3, 2008 06:04 pm at 6:04 pm |
  25. carmen

    hillary you get my vote

    February 3, 2008 06:08 pm at 6:08 pm |
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