February 5th, 2008
05:58 PM ET
14 years ago

Schneider: Conservatives seem split, Could be long night for Dems

The conservative vote appears split.

The conservative vote appears split.

NEW YORK (CNN) - The first round of exit polls from Republican and Democratic primaries across the country are providing some early signs on what trends are at play, and how the night may go.

On the Republican side, the conservative vote appears to be deeply split: 80 percent of Mitt Romney voters identify themselves as conservative, and roughly the same percentage of Mike Huckabee voters say the same. But only 49 percent of McCain voters said they were conservative – one sign the Arizona senator's efforts over the last week to placate conservative voters has not yet paid off.

On the Democratic side, early indications suggest it could be a long night. Primary outcomes often turn on those people who made their decisions within the last three days before the vote. According to the exit polls, Obama and Clinton are essentially splitting those voters, with 47 percent going for Obama and 46 percent for Clinton.

There's no doubt Democrats are torn between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But the early exit polls show they are not bitterly divided: 72 percent of Democrats said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the party's nomination, while 71 percent say the same about Obama.

–CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

Filed under: Bill Schneider
soundoff (98 Responses)
  1. TR

    Reading these emails proves that we are still a country that is divided. I pray that Obama can bring our country together and teach you that your prejudices is uncalled for. You are not voting for Hillary because she will bring this country out of war (you know she will not) you are not voting for her because she will bring this economy up (she's not going to do anything that will not help her special interest groups) Health care (what a fairy tale) when you look at your pay checks under her plan you will see money deducted that you didn't agree to have taken from you to force you to have her plan and ask yourself how much of that money is going to her special interest people. She stated that she would not stop taking money from those groups. Since you are voting for her don't complain when your bank accounts start to decrease. Clintons are about them first then their special interest groups, then they might throw the American people a little something.
    We are tired of the same old same old. 35 years experience in what? When she started out she was running on Bill's record, where is her record for the balancing the budget.

    February 5, 2008 07:11 pm at 7:11 pm |
  2. Jessica

    I am offended that people are implying that Hillary Clinton supporters are uneducated.

    I received a 75% scholarship for college based on academic performance, am graduating magna cum laude, attended Oxford University (one of the best universities in the world) for one year, and have applied to Oxford with recommendations from some of the best theologians in America and England for a Master's degree.

    I am well-informed, educated, and I voted HILLARY CLINTON FOR 2008!

    February 5, 2008 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  3. Realistic Voter

    Gail said:

    Go Hillary!!

    Just like NH

    We need a woman!!

    We have had how many men and 0 woman and look at the mess we are in

    Go GIRLS!!!!!

    OMG. You people have got to be kidding me!! Equal rights for women has become the bashing of ALL men. Once when a bunch of women said they were going to stand for Hillary, they were asked what she stood for. THEY HAD NO IDEA!!!! But dont ya know: we need WOMAN POWER!!!!! What I ask is that you do not vote for someone that does not agree with your PERSONAL beliefs.

    We don't need ANOTHER female Clinton running the White House. The last one was a disaster!!!

    Don't worry Bill-I would have cheated on her, too!


    WOMAN POWER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    (Or at least thats what the ultrafeminist leftists told me...)

    February 5, 2008 07:13 pm at 7:13 pm |
  4. Charlotte

    Saying Huckabee voters would go to Romney instead of McCain is phooey. All 3 are ultra conservative on the abortion issue (unfortunately for us pro-choice Republicans). Now is the choice to make a statement and the one issue where one stands apart is on Taxes. Huckabee supports the FairTax, the others want to continue to prop up a terminally ill, irrevocably cumbersome and complicated IRS/Income Tax system. A vote for Huckabee is a vote for change in the way the government receives its funding. Without him, many of his votes will actually go to McCain – he's got the best centrist-Republican, least-partisan, pro-winning the war platform.

    February 5, 2008 07:16 pm at 7:16 pm |
  5. D Barker

    As for the statement by one of the commentators a few momenst ago...that Huckabee Voters are choosing McCain as a second choice... I'm 47 YOA...I voted for Reagen twice, George Busch Senior Twice, Dole once, George Busch Twice, Huckabee in the Florida Primary....I will not vote for John McCain. He is an Independent, not a Republican! If Gov. Huckabee has trully signed a deal with the Devil to run as a Romney Vote Detractor, he is no better than Ross Perott, and I am sorry I voted for him...I will vote Democratic or not at all...if McCain gets the Nomination!

    February 5, 2008 07:22 pm at 7:22 pm |
  6. Mel

    I have a strong feeling the prediction that Chuck Norris made will come true...

    February 5, 2008 07:22 pm at 7:22 pm |
  7. Can I EVER get posted?!

    Very offensive "Realistic Voter." Pathetic. I feel sorry for you- you must lead a lonely life.
    P.S. Hillary 2008!

    February 5, 2008 07:23 pm at 7:23 pm |
  8. anonymous

    Blah Blah Blah. Vote Romney and save the economy please.

    February 5, 2008 07:25 pm at 7:25 pm |
  9. Realistic Voter

    Dear Can I ever get posted:

    I like to express my personal beliefs, just like all Americans have the right to do. I thought that was something liberals supported.

    February 5, 2008 07:27 pm at 7:27 pm |
  10. DrS

    Logic, please?

    Yes, multi rounds eliminates candidates to focus supporters. But McCain was not "knocked" out or was his 15%. Thus logically if votes were appropriately casting then he would have >15% in the next round pulling a percent or two from Paul. This could have pushed for a third round between Huckabee and Romney. If then Huckabee won, good for him. But in the case of what happened there was political fraud. Huckabee – political decoy.

    McCain had >15% of the supporters, but just didn't want Romney to get the delegates. So his 14% voted for Huckabee (plus 3% form Paul). That equals 51%. Simple enough. Math 101. Romney got 7% of Paul's 10%.

    February 5, 2008 07:31 pm at 7:31 pm |
  11. 30%er

    Can we all wait and see how this thing plays out before we froth over ?

    February 5, 2008 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  12. Maury Dann

    Realistic Voter:

    MY personal belief is that your original post was stupid, sophomoric, and false. You summed up succinctly why I don't vote Republican anymore. And no, I'm not a Hillary supporter. By the way, are you saying Hillary has actually murdered infants? Evidence?

    February 5, 2008 07:42 pm at 7:42 pm |
  13. DrS

    If McCain was so confident that he would clinch the nomination after today (which he probably would), why the WV deal? It makes him look back-handed.

    February 5, 2008 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  14. Sally Smith

    CNN, look who the panel is. Wolf, Gloria Amy, John King, Bill Bennett all republicans. Rowland a obama rep. Oh and sometimes they let Donna B comment just to throw Hillary a bone to try and say hey dummies out there, see we are fair. After reading alot of the blogs it's great to see that alot of the Americans are not as stupid as you would like them to be. Remember they had obama winning New Hampshire, and something went wrong Hillary won. Do you remember the rederic they came up with? The american people lied to the pollsters. Now with that said you know why they support obama and Mcain. It is only for their best interest, not the food on your table or the house that your going to lose. So i say go Hillary go show cnn a thing or two as you graciously do.

    February 5, 2008 07:44 pm at 7:44 pm |
  15. feo

    the best of all this .... es que con OBAMA VIENE LA CAIDA DEL IMPERIO!!!!!!

    February 5, 2008 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  16. Realistic Voter

    Maury Dann,
    I admit I probably went too far, but as a pro-life person I firmly believe that her Senatorial opinion, along with those of others is part of the reason abortions are still legal.

    February 5, 2008 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  17. puddytat

    Thanks for the warning FEO. Iwas going to vote for Obama but I want someone who BEST supports the Constitution

    February 5, 2008 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  18. Michael

    It’s fascinating to me that everyone seems to think that Hucklebee is taking votes from Romney, what if it’s the other way around, I mean if anyone thinks that McCain can beat one of the liberals when he is one himself is foolish. The only person that can debate Obama is Hucklebee because he is straight forward. Don't be surprised in the big swop for the GOP tomorrow, in my opinion Romney is the one stealing votes.

    February 5, 2008 08:11 pm at 8:11 pm |
  19. Joshua

    Ok, you guys are taking this election thing way too seriously. Calm down, relax, be optimistic. Whoever wins this election will do a marvelous job. Smile everyone 🙂 Have a great day!!

    February 5, 2008 08:45 pm at 8:45 pm |
  20. NickAtNight

    When do we get the California votes?

    February 5, 2008 10:17 pm at 10:17 pm |
  21. tim

    "John McCain will never unite the Republican Party." So that's why he's leading Romney 44% to 29% in national polls. So that's why he won 42% of Connecticut's conservative vote as opposed to Romney's 41%. So that's why he won 39% of New York's conservative vote as opposed to Romney's 41%. Now I get it.

    NOT! John McCain is the only candidate that can unite the GOP. John McCain is the only candidate that can beat a Democrat.

    And for all of you who rely on McCain's history of working with Democrats like Feingold, Kennedy, and Kerry to prove that he's too liberal to be considered a Republican, consider the words of Rutherford B Hayes: "He serves his party best who serves his country best." John McCain is willing to work with Democrats to do what is best for America. There's nothing wrong with that.

    February 5, 2008 10:24 pm at 10:24 pm |
  22. keep it simple

    Why get two masters degrees, rabblerouser? Isn't the next step a Ph.D.?

    If you take your own and your friends' preferences and background as evidence of a national trend, then at least we can rest comfortably knowing that the degrees could not have been in anything quantitative.

    February 5, 2008 11:04 pm at 11:04 pm |
  23. Espi

    Hillary is the true winner of the Super Tuesday as she won in the face of unremitting hostility from big media, Clinton enemies among Democrat politicians who endorsed Obama and above all the total switch of the black vote for Obama who ignored the support given them by the Clintons over the past 25 years.

    What is ominous for Obama is the polarization along racial lines that is visible. Even if he the nominee of Democrats he will lose to McCain as white Democrat Hillary supporters will rally behind McCain as McCain is a centrist in the Clinton mould while Obama is a left wing liberal loathed by most of America. This message will not be lost in the next round of primaries. Voters will go for Hillary as they know only she can take on McCain. For Obama his captive vote bank of blacks are largely unimportant in the remaining primaries and Hillary will win.

    February 6, 2008 01:27 am at 1:27 am |
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