April 17th, 2008
10:00 AM ET
15 years ago

Clinton-Obama lead McCain in 'swing' states

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/03/26/art.cand.gi.jpg caption="Sens. Obama and Clinton lead McCain in swing states according to a new poll."]
(CNN)—In potential fall match-ups, Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in states that were decisive in the 2004 election according to a new survey.

The latest Gallup Poll conducted during the first 15 days in April, consisting of more than 13,000 registered voters shows Obama and Clinton ahead by 4 points in so called “purple” or swing states with 47 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

In “blue” states where John Kerry won by more than 6 percentage points in 2004, Obama has a comfortable double-digit lead, while McCain leads by a slightly smaller margin in the “red” states where George Bush prevailed by more than 6 points.

Clinton has the same lead over McCain in purple states, but she does not fare as well as Obama in the “blue” states and also trails McCain by a larger margin than Obama in the traditionally Republican “red” states.

The remaining purple swing states where Bush or Kerry won by 5 points or fewer in 2004 include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon.

soundoff (270 Responses)
  1. HP Boston

    Independent for Hillary, Pittsburgh April 17th, 2008 11:56 am ET

    I wish they would stop with all the polling.

    The winner of an election between Obama and McCain would be based on who wins over Clintons voters. If McCain takes 20% (significant pop. especially in critical areas) then he wins. If Clinton supporters decide to support Obama then he will win.

    Personally, I wont support Obama because I think McCain is more experienced and would do a better job. But I am a conservative Independent and I cant speak for other Clinton supporters

    Yes there are MILLIONS of us who will never supprt or vote for OBAMA.

    April 17, 2008 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  2. Bosnian Sniper

    However you want to impugn these results, they are important in that they go to the last remaining hope for HRC – to convince superdelegates that she is more electable. Indeed, they show that she is less electable.

    I like her. In fact, over the past several months I have started to like her more than Bill. But I prefer Obama. And it seems for the timebeing anyway that a majority of Democracts and – more generally – Americans do. It doesn't make her bad, disliked, etc. It's just where things are right now. This would have been her moment in history if not for Obama and for that I actually feel for her a bit. But I hope she graciously accepts it before the convention.

    April 17, 2008 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  3. Daniel, Loganville Ga

    Congrats to Sen. Clinton on winning the debate on ABC. I now know I do not want the same old politics.....OBAMA '08

    YES WE CAN!!

    April 17, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  4. eddie n. powellnye

    I want all of you southern Democrats to blog the Huffpost and read the article about what HRC stated in 1995 about us. Her statement was-
    "SCREW THEM". This is what she really think of us. We here in rural
    NC are going to put Obama over the top. We know "HONESTY". We also know that the old saying about an old dog -– " YOU MAY MAKE AN OLD DOG BARK, BUT, YOU CAN'T TEACH HIM/HER NEW TRICKS'. HRC and all them talking heads are all the same -- "SAME
    BARK BUT NO NEW TRICKS -– OLD NEWS IS NO NEWS IN THE FACE OF TRUTH'. With HRC and them heads engaging their mouth
    before their brains is becoming a habit when they don't understand
    'GOD'S WILL BE DONE'. It is no mircle that Obama is winning the people's minds and heart, that is what honesty and truth will do to those that really know what "HOPE AND CHANGE' AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO HONESTY AND TRUTH.

    April 17, 2008 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  5. Susie

    CNN please post this- it is not a duplicate because you have not posted it.

    ABCs debate was the most specific, relevant and fair one.

    Under those circumstances- with no Obama panderings- Hillary excelled and Obama tanked.

    He hedges ALL his positions.

    No to Obama.

    Hillary is the BEST candidate and will make a great president.

    April 17, 2008 02:36 pm at 2:36 pm |
  6. bessie

    Obama is ahead in delegates is mostly due to him winning or cheating the caucuses. Numerous complaints have been filed against the Obama campaign for cheating the process. There will be no caucuses in the general election. He will not win.

    April 17, 2008 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
  7. To Brain

    Barack Obama-Wright for America? No. BHO is an elitist,arrogant snob.Most radical senator,attends white hating church,inexperienced,unpatriotic

    April 17, 2008 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
  8. Paula in WI

    If the people in PA are as in tune to faith and values as portrayed they will never vote for Hillary.That would be hypocritical to due after all the media exposure.Lying to the people like she has is unacceptable in any faith.The definition of "elitest" in political terms means "unelectable".Last night once again she got caught in a lie.Not to mention there are photos of her and Bill with Rezco.Does that make her a crook?There was the impeachment,Peter Paul trial,Bosnia,the former presidents remarks (worse than Obamas-they are on the Huffington Post),lie after lie.I don't think the good people in PA could possibly back a phoney like like.That would be insulting their own intelligence.

    April 17, 2008 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  9. Bosnian Sniper

    Bessie: Umm, Obama has won more primary states that HRC too. It's not just abotu caucuses.

    Oh, and by the way, caucusing relies on ground-support and the motivation of your supporters. HRC should have had all Democratic candidates trumped on those scores, but her campaign decided to ignore them in favor of big states only.

    If she had tried to compete everywhere more aggresively and with a better campaign message and strategy, your point might be vailid and sh might be winning now. But she didn't, and she is therefore losing. You can point to caucuses being unfair. Or you can reflect on the reality of the above.

    April 17, 2008 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  10. Jason

    I think this proves what many have been saying about Obama ALSO winning the states that Clinton has won so far in the primaries. In effect, Clinton has not won anything that Obama wouldn´t win anyway.

    "Clinton has the same lead over McCain in purple states, but she does not fare as well as Obama in the “blue” states and also trails McCain by a larger margin than Obama in the traditionally Republican “red” states."

    April 17, 2008 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  11. California Girl

    UCLA students for HILLARY

    April 17, 2008 02:46 pm at 2:46 pm |
  12. Debbie Wilson

    Quit trying to turn the election...do some unbiased reporting. Your Hillary bashing is getting old.

    April 17, 2008 02:46 pm at 2:46 pm |
  13. linda

    The democratic party has been experiencing a slow split for the last 10 years.

    Obama has accentuated and capitalized on that schism for personal political gain.

    On one side you have the left wing elitists who intellectually embrace the idea of equality- but can not and do not put it into practice.

    They continue to look down their noses at the less fortunate, who they label uneducated, and then profess to want to "save them".

    They support Obama. Because of his skin color, African Americans also overwhelmingly support him, irregardless of political, educational or economic position

    On the other side you have the lifelong democrats who are more centrist and populist. They believe in democracy and have protested marched and worked for equality. They see all Americans as one people with a shared future. They support Clinton.

    We WILL NOT come together just for party loyalty and unity in Nov. We have a right and an obligation to support the BEST Candidate.

    April 17, 2008 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  14. Sylvia

    I live in Florida, and many Democrats say that if Obama wins the nomination, they will vote for the republican candidate. Florida is a swing state and crucial in this election in November. Hillary can win Florida, and Obama will not be able to do that. Obama supporters,be pragmatic and practical about your candidate. He does not have the experience to run for president. He will loose against the republicans in the south and in Florida too. Get used to that idea, cause it is the reality here in the South.

    April 17, 2008 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  15. Retired Navy Veteran

    Senator Hillary Clinton is a DISGRACE to America.

    April 17, 2008 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  16. Sam

    don't fall for the billary hillbillies trap. if Obama pounces on her lies and gaffes people all over america will be crying foul about a "man" being mean to some "poor defensless woman". wake up people its not going to work.

    April 17, 2008 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  17. GC

    You know, I think it's funny when there's a lot of comments that Obama is winning, and still in this, because he's gotten such a large percentage of the African American vote in this country because of his race. Yet, Hillary has a large percentage of the female vote, because she's female, and so many fewer people comment on that.

    Even if you count the blog entries made by women in most of these comments, then take the percentage of those that are Hillary supporters, you'll see a strong majority of those comments made by females on here are Hillary supporters. Just an observation that not many comment on.

    April 17, 2008 03:04 pm at 3:04 pm |
  18. Retired Navy Veteran

    Senator Clinton enjoys silly season. Her gold is to destroy those who stands in her way. They know that Obama can win.

    April 17, 2008 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |
  19. Eddie

    If Hillary is truly vetting Obama because she knows the republican machine and this will just help him ,right.Why would you smear a candidate in your own party with lies and half truths.Hillary is the biggest,lying,deceitful individual I have ever seen.Take your loss and just leave,because I am sure Obama nor the democratic party needs your kind of help to be stronger.

    April 17, 2008 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  20. Voting Values in the NW

    Sylvia from Florida,
    Wouldn't it be interesting if Florida started becoming less relevant on the national stage. RealClearPolitics.com shows that Clinton is slightly behind McSame in FL, but that Obama is ahead of McSame in Michigan. If FL's Dem Party keeps screwing up so badly, then no wonder the Rep's can steal elections there. Obama will do great with many Southern states and he'll take enough of the rest of the swing states

    Florida voted for Jeb and Bush and Bush and even if it was stolen, it was too dang close when your dealing with the RNC and Dibolt.

    We might be ready to conceded Florida.

    April 17, 2008 03:35 pm at 3:35 pm |
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