April 17th, 2008
10:00 AM ET
15 years ago

Clinton-Obama lead McCain in 'swing' states

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/03/26/art.cand.gi.jpg caption="Sens. Obama and Clinton lead McCain in swing states according to a new poll."]
(CNN)—In potential fall match-ups, Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in states that were decisive in the 2004 election according to a new survey.

The latest Gallup Poll conducted during the first 15 days in April, consisting of more than 13,000 registered voters shows Obama and Clinton ahead by 4 points in so called “purple” or swing states with 47 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

In “blue” states where John Kerry won by more than 6 percentage points in 2004, Obama has a comfortable double-digit lead, while McCain leads by a slightly smaller margin in the “red” states where George Bush prevailed by more than 6 points.

Clinton has the same lead over McCain in purple states, but she does not fare as well as Obama in the “blue” states and also trails McCain by a larger margin than Obama in the traditionally Republican “red” states.

The remaining purple swing states where Bush or Kerry won by 5 points or fewer in 2004 include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon.

soundoff (270 Responses)
  1. An Agnostic Democrat

    Well, there goes all of Hillary's arguments to the superDs!!!
    Is he electable? Yes! Yes! Yes! Her words, not mine. She was unwise to paint herself into this corner. Now the blue state argument is out the window, too.

    April 17, 2008 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  2. carolflowery

    you know, the funniest thing to me about the questions last about each candidate believing the other one could win in NOvember was,
    well, hello, duh, can you imagine if one of them had said NO, LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

    April 17, 2008 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  3. After further review,Texas

    BAYOU JOE?Can undocumented workers vote?

    April 17, 2008 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  4. Rose from Chicago

    ABC blew it! With 7weeks worth of credible questionjs that could have been asked last night, this is what they came up with???!!!

    I thought it was "Let's pile on Mr. Obama and see what happens".

    Not impressed...I'll stick with MSNBC and CNN.

    April 17, 2008 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  5. Kenny

    What no one seems to notice is the meaninglessness of this particular brand of "purple state poll." Most of the "purple states" have been won by the dems in the last two elections anyway. Only two of the states will probably matter, Ohio and Florida. So the fact that Clinton/Obama will win New Hampshire or Michigan by more than John Kerry did simply doesn't factor into who would be president. I would guess if you went back and averaged the actual margins of victory in the purple states in this way for 2004 it would be quite similar to what those polls show now.

    All McCain has to do is hold serve. Win exactly what Bush won and he's the next pres. Score an upset in a 2004 Dem state that might be bitter their candidate wan't selected by the dems (might McCain steal Illinois if Obama gets screwed at the convention?, If Penn goes overwhelmingly for Clinton and Obama is the nominee might they run to McCain?) and he'll win in a walk.

    April 17, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  6. Gal

    Hmmm that would tell me that Mrs. Clinton is not as electable as Obama.

    April 17, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  7. Ryan, MO

    The Dems only need to run one ad this fall "Do you trust a member of the Keating 5 to run the country?"

    April 17, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  8. PSU Gambit

    It's so funny that is ok for Hillary to get the tough line of questioning, but it's not ok for Obama. He did poorly in the debate and definitely solidified if he is the democratic nominee, McCain will get my vote. He can't answer the tough questions, how is he going to make the tough calls.

    April 17, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  9. kentucky

    Obama complains about the tone of the questions in the Philly debate. Quit whining. If for some reason Obama is the nominee, the questions will be 10 times tougher than the ABC debate.
    Obama is not entitled to anything. He must earn what he gets. Quit whining Obama!

    April 17, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  10. Dylan

    Well... so much for that "Obama is unelectable" argument, eh Clinton supporters?

    It is abundantly clear that Sen. Obama is oh-so-much-more electable than Hillary Clinton. How anyone could look at these numbers and try to refute that is beyond me.

    April 17, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  11. Marc, Tacoma Wash

    This is the perfect time for Hillary to give up. I still want to know, who is the guy who was sitting on the board for Wallmart, along with Hillary and he said that Union Members are the lowest of human species. Lets see what Hillary have to say about that.

    April 17, 2008 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  12. jone

    There is a fundamental ideological difference between McCain and either of the democratic nominee. If you are a supporter of one of the democratic nominee, I don't see how you can support John McCain. You are supporting a person based on how old he is? McCain has gone back on everything he has said. I respected McCain as an individual who was not in line with mainstream republicans. However, during this campaign he has tried to modify his sayings, policies, and actions to match that of mainstream republicans. How can anyone support an individual who sells out his values so that he can get elected? What sort of candor or will does this individual have if he is flip-flopping like a banked fish?

    April 17, 2008 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  13. Mary, OH

    April you are right on the money. But Obama supporters have something that Hillary supporters will never have, an honest candidate. We can honestly say that our candidate has integrity, and good character. The win at any cost strategy will never win.

    Hillary is crazy if she thinks she is going to steal my country. She and Bill can't lie their way to her nomination. It won't work and it won't happen.

    Obama 08

    April 17, 2008 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  14. Wise Choice

    Fantastic. The chickens are are almost home to roost. Go Obama.

    April 17, 2008 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  15. jay

    Sen. Obama has Recieved two super delagates today. including one defecting from Sen. Clinton.

    April 17, 2008 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  16. Mike from Westchester

    Cheryl for Hillary:

    The last candidate who majored in miracles was Huckabee. Hillary can commiserate with him after she tires of being rejected by the voters.

    All the smear tactics and tag team debates are not going to prevent the nomination of the best person for the President.

    Can he win? "Yes, Yes, Yes" he can! "Yes, Yes, Yes" he will!

    April 17, 2008 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  17. Sophia

    Everyone, you have a brain....CNN is offer their opinion not necessarily the facts! There are presential polling websites that have all the numbers by state...go read for yourself so you are an educated participant! eg. McCain beats Obama by 15points in FL while Clinton beats McCain by 1 point....Obama & Clinton beat McCain by 5 points in NJ.

    Again, go read the numbers for yourself and stop being gullible to the media reporting & analysis. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF

    April 17, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  18. JoAnne, IN

    Dean had better grow a spine between now and August because he is in for the fight of his life. There will be political blood on the DNC's hands if Clinton scum is at the top of any ticket.

    April 17, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  19. mama4obama

    Hillary=fallen star

    April 17, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  20. Damian

    If the debate focused on Penn and Bill Clinton's connections with free trade with Columbia; or followed up the Bosnia questions with the Ohio 'story'; or asked about the fact that Hillary supported Nafta (whether she secretly opposed or not) on behalf of her husband while first lady; or on the negative aspect of her campain (amazingly they tried to make Obama's campain look negative and failed); or on the fact that SHE was also not wearing a flag pin; or that in her health plan, if you can't afford insurance, then you'll be penalised as if it's a crime to be poor; or that she has the gall to call Obama elitist ingnoring the difference in their respective backgrounds and incomes (still hasn't released last year's returns BTW); or that the polls show that he has a better chance of winning than she does (though she admitted he is electable so out goes that argument) then there's no way she would have fared even close to how well Obama did when they spent most of the debate focused on him instead of the issues or on her.....I think Keith Olberman should be the moderator for the next debate just to even the score.....

    April 17, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  21. NickNas

    So then Obama IS the stronger Candidate. You ClintonBots can Spin this ALL you want and you will just look ignorant and in denial.

    April 17, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  22. Sue

    Go Barack, Go! Your nation is with you!

    April 17, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  23. uchujin

    Any of you yahoos that think any Democratic ticket that has HRC on it is a good/winning ticket are delusional. If she is anywhere near the ticket the anti-hillary vote will come out of the woodwork like cockroaches in a dark room and disappear just as quickly after her defeat. Please don't even joke about a joint ticket with her on it. It isn't funny anymore.

    April 17, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  24. Finally Decided

    Is Obama electable?????

    I used to believe Hillary when she said Obama was not electable.

    What happened last night with her screaming YES! YES! YES!
    A single YES! would have done it. Her Superdelegates should be offended for she mispoke again!

    April 17, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  25. Gale

    I am so confused as who to choose as the nominee! Now I know how some of the superdelegates feel.

    The polls are just snapshots. They can change by November. The Media does not help depending on which one you go to they will spin the story to help their canidate of choice.

    The debates are not useful because thier platforms are too similiar. I will not vote Republican because they are not intouch with people who make less than 200 000. Being a female I would prefer a female president but Hillary is too scary especially with her Bosnia lie. How can we trust what she says when she visits Iraq or Afganistan?

    Once emotions are taken out of politics and the facts are looked at Obama looks like the best canidate for President.. Obama 08 !?!?

    April 17, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11