April 17th, 2008
10:00 AM ET
15 years ago

Clinton-Obama lead McCain in 'swing' states

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/03/26/art.cand.gi.jpg caption="Sens. Obama and Clinton lead McCain in swing states according to a new poll."]
(CNN)—In potential fall match-ups, Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in states that were decisive in the 2004 election according to a new survey.

The latest Gallup Poll conducted during the first 15 days in April, consisting of more than 13,000 registered voters shows Obama and Clinton ahead by 4 points in so called “purple” or swing states with 47 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

In “blue” states where John Kerry won by more than 6 percentage points in 2004, Obama has a comfortable double-digit lead, while McCain leads by a slightly smaller margin in the “red” states where George Bush prevailed by more than 6 points.

Clinton has the same lead over McCain in purple states, but she does not fare as well as Obama in the “blue” states and also trails McCain by a larger margin than Obama in the traditionally Republican “red” states.

The remaining purple swing states where Bush or Kerry won by 5 points or fewer in 2004 include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon.

soundoff (270 Responses)
  1. Patrick from CA

    Amen "lived in Europe"

    Aaaaaaammmmmmmmen!

    April 17, 2008 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  2. Dave B

    I just saved a boat load of money by switching to Ron Paul 🙂

    Since the media has chosen to utterly ignore the candidates that never dropped out perhaps Paul and Gravel should run for the Liberterian ticket?

    Its going to be very sad when Obama becomes president and the dems begin to realize charisma was not the answer we needed. We will still be in Iraq killing women and children, but everyone will be saying "At least Bush is gone". I'm sure McCain, Obama and Clinton are all decent people but none will bring about the systemic changes we need.

    The crisis is upon us and we refuse to take responsibility. We have to decide what the role of our governement should be. Is it to give us a job, a car, free health care, free college tuition, empire build & police the planet?

    If we don't feel we have the right to break into our neighbors home and force them to behave as we wish why do we think our elected officials have such a right? The USA is not Canada, its not France. The United States of America is the greatest experiment on the face of the planet. Seems to me that we are afraid and no longer trust our individualist instincts. We should be setting the example! Not turning to other countries or even our own leaders for protection or advice.

    I love this country and hate the direction in which we seem to be leaning. Thank goodness we still (ostensibly) live in a republic & not a democracy. Good Night & Good Luck.

    April 17, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  3. Baby Girl

    Brain you only get the wrong information from the Clinton's. What do you know or read about any of the people HIllary has mention. That is why so many people get sued for slander. Let Hillary keep making a fool of herself, because I don't care for a women who wants to run the country that can't hold her own. Throw a brick and hide her hand.

    Obama 08

    April 17, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  4. AJ

    Oh please. Obama cant win Florida or Ohio and Michigan will be iffy.
    Obama will not win in the fall.

    April 17, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  5. simon

    The ABC debate was the most two-sided and fairest debate I have seen so far. The Obama supporters didn't like it cause for the first time, their candidate didn't get the royal treatment. I'm proud of ABC.

    April 17, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  6. streetsmart

    Funny how some people quickly trump poll numbers if it favors their candidate and just as quickly discount them if they don't! Polls provide a snap shot of now and possible indicator of future events. This poll put to rest the notion that Obama would not win the normally large blue states that Hillary won in the primary.

    Based on other polling data, Obama will not win Philadelphia but he will certainly win Indiana and North Carolina to lock up the nomination contest.

    Democrats are favored to win the White House in November so no wonder Hillary is holding on to the "bitter" end...

    April 17, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  7. Jan

    Keep up the good work, Cheryl–naturally, Obama supporters think they own CNN blog space-we will prove them wrong. . Cnn likes our pro-Hilary comments-they can say they posted a few! Hilary–2008

    April 17, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  8. Bitter - New Orleans, LA

    The pin lapel deal...

    Not that I really care, but the fuss is that he USED to wear one and then stopped all of a sudden. Why?

    The other candidates haven't worn one, so they're not asked about it.

    But seriously.... this was supposed to be a debate. It was more like a cut from E!

    I do, however, applaud ABC for not tossing Obama softball questions like the other networks. I really want to see him answer some real questions and stop skirting around them.

    April 17, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  9. Independant

    The republicans never have to win a presidential election the democrats always find a way to loose it. We need a third (new) party.

    April 17, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  10. Tired of W, OH

    Hillary or McCain – There IS no other choice wrote: And besides, the only one who stole anything is your hero – he stole Florida's and Michigan's votes, so once again, it's a case of the pot calling the kettle black

    Doesn't matter – I'll get even by voting for McCain in November. Oblahblah will only get away with stealing my vote once
    __________________________________________________

    I don't even know where to begin... Obama did not steal anything. Floriday & Michigan broke DNC rules and it was the DNC that stripped them of their delegates. Obama had nothing to do with it. This is old news and you've not been paying attention, apparently.

    You'll "get even"?!?!? By voting for McBush? Do every Democrat a favor and get out of the Democratic party because you obviously do not vote according to the issues. By the way, Obama did not have to "steal" your vote. If you're willing to vote for McBush, your vote must not be very important to you, anyway.

    April 17, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  11. Voter

    Charlie and George both asked questions Americans have wanted to know the answers. Obama did not appear strong and if answering the questions asked now makes him stubble how will he be able to look capable of leading the country against McCain in the fall. Obama never answered George about the man who funded his senate campaign and made statements after September 11 that more bombs should have happened in New York. Obama has some anti-American support that makes Americans unsure of his ability to bring people together.

    The more we find out about Obama affiliations the less he appears to be able to with stand against McCain in the fall. Americans do not want a leader that divides the people. Obama having heard all the messages from Reverend Wright for 20 years now turns around and actual gives a campaign speech isolating more Americans. Obama will not be able to play the sympathy card in the fall against McCain. He can not stubble over his answers appear unsure and really be able to with stand McCain in the main election.

    Hillary has carried most of the larger states and will be able to with stand the questions and have a good plan to bring Americans back to peace and prosperity. Hillary answered the questions strongly in the debate and will do very well against McCain in the fall.

    Florida and Michigan should be counted at the convention will all delegates and the only candidate who has stood up for the Citizens votes has been Hillary. Obama will not even stand up for the voter's being counted a simple fair choice.

    April 17, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  12. Independents Prevail

    Lee, from Treasure Island Florida:

    What newspapers are bashing ABC? The Washington Post, The New York Times, your favority MoveOn.org newsblogger? Who cares what those liberal elites say. There is a large portion of this Nation who don't care what they have to say, since its all coated in liberal bias. Its sad how the fanatical Obamamaniac robots attack Hillary and ABC for asking Obama tough questions that half the country find very relevant. Too bad Obama wasn't exposed earlier for his secretive anti-American, racist views and suspect comments. Hillary should be able to run as long as she wants to run and feels she has a chance to win. If she didn't think she was the better, more-electable candidate she wouldn't be running. Get over it Obamians, and let the man answer the tough questions. Half the country doesn't appreciate his arrogant and pressumptious responses and patronizing gazes, and a lot of people of faith laugh at his "moral authority" and "devout" Christian faith. America does not need another "leader" that half the country wont be following.

    Vote McCain, unite America, lets work together under a President who shows a willingness to work the middle to get things done!

    April 17, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  13. mattD

    Obama seemed very nervous last night answering those tough questions. I am doubting how he'll be able to take the blows from the Republicans if he's nominated. HILLARY '08

    April 17, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  14. Dee

    Hillary supporters stop with the Clinton/Obama ticket. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. Obama supporters don't want anything to do with Mr and Mrs Clinton.

    April 17, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  15. ALBO

    IT SEEMS THAT IN THE SWING STATES THE POSITION OF HILLARY AND CLINTON VERSUS McCAIN IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.

    SO, INDEPENDENTLY WHO IS THE NOMINEE, THE CHANCES OF THE DEMS THERE ARE THE SAME.

    THEREFORE: WHAT HAS THIS TO DO WITH THAT HILLARY LEAD OBAMA IN THE MAJORITY OF THESE STATES ??

    ALBO

    April 17, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  16. Eric

    Jan, to your question: DOES THIS TELL YOU ANYTHING ABOUT THIS MAN

    Yes, it tells me the guy is able to see many sides on the issues, preventing him to act like the idiot Bush was.

    But your post is certainly more telling about you. It tells me that your love of the country, instead of revolving around devoted work like Obama did for years, is summarised by a flag pin, by where you put your hand, and other REALLY IMPORTANT QUESTIONS. You must have liked the debate last night, even though you probably thought they should have asked about Sinclair, to make sure they covered the entire gutter.

    April 17, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  17. Joe from Maryland

    If we accept the premise that both Clinton and Obama will carry the same states that Gore and Kerry won, who will win that one " purple" or " red" state, such as Florida, Ohio, West Virginia or New Hamphsire?

    April 17, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  18. To Linda

    Let's see : Hillary Clinton has showned she is a honest person, a person who likes to get things done for the good of the country, she works very hard to win votes, Unlike obama, who is a bad loser and does not seem to realize that all the mud slinging he is doing is very negative because it gives a terrible image of the men and thus is a major setback for the advancement of men in society. She clearly is another Jackie Robinson and is the right woman for the job.

    ------------------------------

    GIRL !! What are you on???? I just hope one day, you take your blinders off and actually learn to think for yourself..instead of wasting your time posting comments..please go get an education honey!!

    April 17, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  19. chris isner

    Obama displayed admirable dignity last night, not only in his refusal to rise to the hit job that Clinton crowingly hitched herself to, but even going so far as to defend her while she attacked him. This man is the most dignified and effective candidate I've ever seen and I suspect that he will win over the embittered Clinton supporters in the months preceding the general elecion. For so many to say if not Clinton-then-McCain or if not Obama-then-McCain, well, maybe we deserve th eight-years-of-Bush mess we're now in.

    April 17, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  20. Bukky

    Obama can thank ABC for my donation to his campaign... I ahve always been a supporter but if they are going to attack him for what some one did when he was 8... I have to say they've got nothing on the guy.

    Hillary has Peter Paul to deal with. People scream until Media did stories about rev wright. Where is the Peter Paul Story on clinton?

    April 17, 2008 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  21. sue

    Clinton/Obama will benefit Obama. He can have eight years of VP oval office experience so he can run and win in 2016. We can have Obama for a total of 16 years. Think about it... Clinton/Obama!!

    April 17, 2008 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  22. kw50

    Did you hear Clinton last night. She said Yes, Yes, Yes Sen. Obama can beat McCain. So, she admits she lied again when she said he was not electable. She has been saying for months that he was not electable, well; now that it has been said on National television in the face of millions, she can't make that case with the Super Delegates anymore. Which is why Sen. Obama received 4 more SD endorsements right after the debate.

    Hillary is pathetic and a liar. If she spent 20 years in a church listening to her spiritual leader, she would not be doing these underhanded tactics. She says her faith gets her through, everyone in that conference should have moved two rows back before the lightning bolt struck. I know it's not faith; it's another 4 years of greed and power that gets her through. She is supposed to be a Christian, this woman would make anyone lose their religion. The fact that Sen. Obama hasn't gone after her the way she is going after him, shows that he is more of a Christian than Hillary will ever be. Maybe, that what she can't tolerate. Shame on you Hillary, Shame, Shame on you.

    April 17, 2008 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  23. Matt

    Last night Clinton finally had to admit that Obama can win in November, essentially crippling her primary sales pitch to the superdelegates that he can't. Now these numbers come out that show Obama fares just as well as Senator Clinton in swing states against McCain, and that he does better in both blue and red states. So much for the "stronger swing state candidate" theory. The fact that this information was collected while Senator Obama was getting shelled by both Clinton and McCain does nothing but improve Obama's "toughness" credentials to superdelegates and further weakens Hiillary Clinton's relevancy. I'd watch out for flocks of superdelegates joining Obama after the Pennsylvania outcome.

    April 17, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  24. Enough is Enough

    jeff raygun

    Obama will win it all. I will bet my paycheck on it. Will you?

    April 17, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  25. suzanne

    I don't hear the Obama supporters complaining when CNN and NBC constantly rip Hillary apart and praise the Great Obama. If you think that the majority of Americans will support this joke of a candidate you are in for a big surprise in November.

    April 17, 2008 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
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