April 22nd, 2008
05:27 PM ET
15 years ago

Schneider: What the exit polls will show

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/04/16/art.clinton.obama.jpg caption="Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have establised bases according to exit polls."]
(CNN) - The Democratic race has been going on for four months. Is anything changing? The exit polls will tell us.

Each candidate has established a base. Hillary Clinton's includes women, seniors, blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Latinos.

Barack Obama's base includes African-Americans, young voters, affluent professionals, and Independents.

Tonight's exit polls will show whether either candidate is making inroads into the other candidate's base. If nobody's moving, we may be doomed to more weeks of trench warfare, with each side trying to rally higher turnout from its base.

How will we know things are changing?

If she wins Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, which was her margin in neighboring New Jersey and Ohio, we'll know the race is shifting in her favor.

If she wins by a very narrow margin, she's losing momentum.

And if Obama beats her in Pennsylvania? She will face powerful pressure to withdraw rather than further divide the party.

Filed under: Bill Schneider • Exit Polls • Pennsylvania
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. smokesignals

    Once again I am amazed at the people who say if their darling Hillary isn't the Democratic nominee that they will vote for McCain! What kind of logic is that? What kind of crazed thinking is that? You would vote for a Republican war monger senior citizen over a sane, intelligent and inspirational Democrat who has gained the support of the youth of our nation that has been so long disenfranchised?
    Come on people. Use your brains!

    Go Obama!

    April 22, 2008 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  2. wl

    I just don't trust someone who 1. can't win the states that matter (California, New York, Ohio..) and 2. has supporters who are first time voters. No offense to all you first time voters, but I don't trust you. Follow politics for a few more years before you decide to pick whoever you think is most popular or says a few things that makes you tingle. Obama may be an interesting person, but in no way is he fit for this position.

    Become a little cynical before you vote. Obama won't be able to make change, sure, it sounds nice, but it won't happen. Clinton knows how to make change that will happen.

    April 22, 2008 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  3. That Boy!

    wow so after 6 weeks it all comes to the same old bickering about who should be the nominee...this is just sickening. i mean any rational mind looking at the stats shld alrdy have this figured out
    let put aside favourtism

    More States won = Obama

    More delegates to date = Obama

    Most Popular Votes = Obama

    now u tell me the winner, even a 4 yr old can solve this math.


    April 22, 2008 06:15 pm at 6:15 pm |
  4. ajbb

    First of all, polls are not reliable when taken months ahead which is why no one gives creedence to polls about the general election in November. Polls only give you a snapshot of what is happening in the minds of voters at a particular point in time. Polls can be skewed by weighting and sampling which is why some polls are more reliable (SUSA) and others are not(Zogby). Advertising can make a huge difference in a close race since most people get their news from TV and not print media. As far as lying goes, they all do it. Obama has lied in every debate as well as some interviews that I've seen him on so you can't say lying is a Clinton specific problem. The country is in peril and voters need to understand experience does matter.

    April 22, 2008 06:15 pm at 6:15 pm |
  5. Michael

    Like most of the other posters here, I too am a political junkie. If we weren't, we could all wait until tomorrow and then we wouldn't have to guess how it's going in Pennslyvania. But c'mon, this debate we're having is stupid–as far as votes go, the race is over already and has been for a while. Barack won the nomination weeks ago when he built an insurmountable lead in delegates, IF delegates are all you're looking at.

    Hillary's only possible chance to win now is to convince the pledged and superdelegates that she is more electable and get some of them to change sides. Can she convince enough? I don't think so, but won't completely exclude the possibility. Can she damage the unity of the party sufficiently that we'll lose in November? Much more likely. Don't get me wrong–I WILL vote for her if she does somehow get the nomination, but I 'll continue to harbor quite a bit of resentment for how she's allowing an EXTREMELY slim personal shot at the White House to jeopardize an election that the Dems should have locked up.

    Those of you who think the Republicans would go harder on Barack than on Hillary are either very young or have very bad memories. They HATE her–they're SCARED of him.

    April 22, 2008 06:16 pm at 6:16 pm |
  6. Mary in Georgia

    Amen to 4hillary.. My prayers and so many others have been going up faithfully for Hillary. God bless the United States Of AMERICA.

    Hillary Clinton 2008

    April 22, 2008 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
  7. Rob

    Who will rid us of this pestilential harridan?

    Us "elitists" want a smart and thoughtful guy in the White House, not a power-hungry know-all who tells everyone what to do instead of winning them over. She's incapable of negotiating for a chocolate donut.

    April 22, 2008 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
  8. Cal Jim 2

    I do believe that Mrs.Clinton will win In Pennsylvania. I'll even make a prediction. Are ya ready? Clinton 63% Obama 47%. Of course, plus or minus whatever is, different than my prediction. Time, is Obamas enemy. Mr.Obama has a reality problem. The more time there is, for people to get to know, the behind the scenes reality, of Mr.Obama, the more people will move away from him. Mr.Obama, and his core of radical thinkers, are his own worse enemy. Not Mrs Clinton. If the voters don't unite behind Mrs.Clinton, they will unite behind Mr.McCain. Really, the question is, who do you want as president Mr.McCain, or Mrs Clinton? That ..IS.. what we are choosing, right now, in Pennsylvania. Good luck.

    April 22, 2008 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
  9. ak

    ****smokesignals*** I would rather support McCain, I know and like some of his politics. Yes, we'd loose a supreme court judge, but it can't be worse than what Obama won't do. I'm surprised at the democrats who look at politics as party lines, McCain is actually a smart guy, you shouldn't hate him just because he's not the same as you for everything.

    As for Obama, I don't know where he really stands, besides present, on anything. I'm not going to vote for someone I don't know anything about. What I do know about him, is that he lies and misleads the media, as I've seen it done in many talks and debates. I don't trust him.

    April 22, 2008 06:18 pm at 6:18 pm |
  10. That Boy!

    Ooops! and by the way let's not forget about the finances....i'mean would'nt want any collection calls if i were hillary,...when ur debtors know fully well that u got cool Mills in the bank

    April 22, 2008 06:19 pm at 6:19 pm |
  11. Emeka

    I don't see Hillary wining by a big margin. In order for her to stay in the race, she has to win PA by a double digit margin. If she don't, she will have a problme catching up.

    I think Obama is going to be party nominee.

    April 22, 2008 06:19 pm at 6:19 pm |
  12. Jane

    I think the contest between Hillary and Obama (I support HIM) will continue because the gutless "superdelegates" are worried about showing their hands. If A superdelegate supports Obama, it means he or she could be perceived as anti-feminist. If a superdelegate favors Hillary, he or she might have an African American backlash or be perceived as racist by some citizens. Obama is the best candidate. I'm a 64 y/o white woman who chose to support Obama because he is the BEST CANDIDATE, period.

    April 22, 2008 06:20 pm at 6:20 pm |
  13. Nancy

    How can any of you believe polls. I use to take polls in Las Vegas and what they are is a survey. They only poll just a few out of the thousands and hundered of thousands in a state or city so if they poll 1600 in a city of 500,000 then that is not much of a poll they would have to poll every voter or citizen in order to really make a poll.

    April 22, 2008 06:20 pm at 6:20 pm |
  14. mike

    If Obama wins the nomination we will definately loose in the Fall. The Republicans will chew him up in the general election. Let's all get real here and realize thqat the only person that can give McCain a fight in ther fall is Hillary. I hope the Superdelegates get this message and get it quick.

    April 22, 2008 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  15. Terry from VA

    How is it she whens 1 contest in since March 4 and she has momentumum. She has lost two races since then. She is the establishment candidate and should have closed this deal a long time ago. If the people in PA do not want to move forward, what can you do? We will as a Nation move forward with PA, OH and any other state that fails to see the change will get left behind.

    April 22, 2008 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  16. Erica AM

    GO HILLARY!!!!

    If she wins the nomination, it will be so FANTASTIC and a value proof of a real fighter that all the dems should be sure she'll crush McCain in November.. it's called SWEAT, PATRIOTISM and BLOOD..

    April 22, 2008 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  17. ak

    I agree Mike. Obama can't win the big states, we've seen it. He won't win the general election because the small states will turn on him and the big states may or may not go his way.

    April 22, 2008 06:24 pm at 6:24 pm |
  18. 4Hillary


    Pittsburgh Tribune-Review – 4/20/08
    "....Those who have endorsed Obama have rhetorically swooned, too, designating him the future of American politics, while denigrating Clinton as a relic of politics past.

    How ironic, since Obama owes no small part of his success to the grooming and support of Chicago's old-line Daley political machine....He has spent just three years in the U.S. Senate. Before that, he spent just eight years as one of 177 state legislators in Illinois. Before that, he was a university lecturer, a community organizer, a civil-rights lawyer.

    Quite simply, this is no portfolio for a president, the world's most powerful leader. The presidency is no place for on-the-job training in the best of times - and certainly not when the nation is at war, the economy is struggling, and federal governance in general is adrift."



    Breaking News for "Waffle Man" ~ You can NEVER have my VOTE!!

    April 22, 2008 06:24 pm at 6:24 pm |
  19. Bill W - PA

    What stereotypes! You guys think you know how everyone is supposed to vote based on their age, gender etc. ...And you got it totally wrong, at least in my case.

    Hey, I am a Catholic. I am a blue collar worker. And I am over 40. And I refuse to vote for Hillary Clinton, ever. Because I have thoughts! And a brain in my head!

    I remember NAFTA, TATA Consulting, her lies about giving licenses to illegal immigration, her lies about being shot at, and generally, her lies about everything else. I remember scandal after Clinton scandal: WhiteWater, Monica Lewinski, Ken Starr, Cattle Futures, looting the White House and Air Force One, and right on up to the sale of presidential pardons as they left office.

    The Clintons are crooks, criminals. The worst kind. They should both be in jail. And if it was any of us, we would be. They don't deserve the White House again.

    20 Years: Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush. And where exactly has that gotten us? It is time for change, time for a new direction. I would vote for the Devil himself before I would vote for the Clintons again. (And there wouldn't be that much difference.)

    April 22, 2008 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  20. What?

    I would like one Clinton supporter to explain to me why Obama should drop out or go away when he leads in every category from delegets, states, popular vote, money raised? I just beg one person to give me a reason better than the 4 reasons i gave.

    April 22, 2008 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  21. Linda Mae

    Why is it that Politics bring out the Worst in people instead of the Best?
    I am voting for the canidate that runs HIs/Her campaign with the most Dignity and Poise in this unrelenting heated battle.
    I believe that person to be Obama. I'd rather have a gentle (but strong) giant in the White House than an hard (unyielding) person with experience!
    From an Independant.

    April 22, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
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