Schneider: What the exit polls will show
[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/04/16/art.clinton.obama.jpg caption="Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have establised bases according to exit polls."]
(CNN) - The Democratic race has been going on for four months. Is anything changing? The exit polls will tell us.
Each candidate has established a base. Hillary Clinton's includes women, seniors, blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Latinos.
Barack Obama's base includes African-Americans, young voters, affluent professionals, and Independents.
Tonight's exit polls will show whether either candidate is making inroads into the other candidate's base. If nobody's moving, we may be doomed to more weeks of trench warfare, with each side trying to rally higher turnout from its base.
How will we know things are changing?
If she wins Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, which was her margin in neighboring New Jersey and Ohio, we'll know the race is shifting in her favor.
If she wins by a very narrow margin, she's losing momentum.
And if Obama beats her in Pennsylvania? She will face powerful pressure to withdraw rather than further divide the party.
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Do the exit polls show Hillary's campaign is dead broke?
How will she be able to compete in Indiana and NC with no money, regardless of the outcome in PA?
BILL YOU CAN WISH ALL YOU WANT, BUT YOUR
NEXT PRESIDENT WILL BE OBAMA.
How can you say that the race turned in her favor if she wins by 10 or more points? Just like the demographics in PA don't favor Barack, the demographics in NC don't favor Hillary. And the demographics in Indiana favor Hillary but the voters so far prefer Obama.
Momentum, schmomentum. Put a fork in this thing already.
Agree
obama will never win over john mcain?
Clinton once led Obama by 30% in PA. Those same polls say that she has lost at least 20% since then.
No one can argue that her getting 10% more votes today is a win. No matter how you slice it, dropping 20% in a couple months is LOSING.
Why should she quit, while there is still some shred of the Democrat Party left? She is the best Candidate the Republicans have.
Why do people insist that if she wins by 10% that momentum is moving in her direction? She was ahead by 20-25% in PA 6 weeks ago. Logic has it that anything below 20-25% would have momentum moving in Obama's direction.
GO OBAMA!!!!!!!!
GO OBAMA!!!!!!!!
"doomed to more weeks of trench warfare"?
That's not a good analogy. We are learning more about these candidates than we ever would have if the race wasn't so close.
That's good for America.
BILL WE DON'T HAVE A PROBLEM WITH YOU FAVORING
HILLARY, JUST WITH YOU MOUSING AROUND AND TRYING
TO CONVINCE US THAT YOU ARE NOT BIASED.
YOU HOWEVER SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA
OF HAVING SEN.OBAMA AS YOUR NEXT PRES.
why should hillary quit? why dont obama just go away?
She was up by more than 20% in PA 6 weeks ago. She's ALREADY LOST momentum. She's already losing voters every time Barack speaks...
Hilary please don;t with draw the country needs you. My gosh after what we have seen from Obama how can this man be the next president?
The exit polls will show that Obama will not become the next President Of The United States.
Well said, ***AMERICAN***........ WELL SAID.
Tell us somethign we don't know. WOW. You been holding this in all day?
cnn is trying it's best to extend this campaign.
not sure how winning a state that you once had a 30 point lead in is taking momentum?????
NC is going to be a landslide and IN is going to be in favor of Obama. Maybe then she will drop out. If her creditors don't get her first.
Time to consider a VP position HRC....
Obama will win. In just few weeks he closed the gap!
I love how all these unemployed shut-ins already know what the exit polls will tell us LMAO
There was no vote weeks ago. Such previous polls are just guestimates. The only one that actually measures accurately is on voting day at the booth.
I find it interesting that she's saying "a win is a win" in PA but somehow that doesn't apply to all the states that Obama has won because they're "small" or unimportant in some other way according to Clinton's campaign.She can't have it both ways...her campaign is increasingly creative as time goes on about what defines the front runner in this race...and when one definition doesn't work, they have another one ready!
The Exit Poll's, will Show... Exit, Stage Left.. Obama...
I sincerely hope this guy isn't getting paid too much to tell us the obvious. Can we have some deep analysis here? Jeez, I could give this summary in my sleep.