April 22nd, 2008
05:27 PM ET
15 years ago

Schneider: What the exit polls will show

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/04/16/art.clinton.obama.jpg caption="Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have establised bases according to exit polls."]
(CNN) - The Democratic race has been going on for four months. Is anything changing? The exit polls will tell us.

Each candidate has established a base. Hillary Clinton's includes women, seniors, blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Latinos.

Barack Obama's base includes African-Americans, young voters, affluent professionals, and Independents.

Tonight's exit polls will show whether either candidate is making inroads into the other candidate's base. If nobody's moving, we may be doomed to more weeks of trench warfare, with each side trying to rally higher turnout from its base.

How will we know things are changing?

If she wins Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, which was her margin in neighboring New Jersey and Ohio, we'll know the race is shifting in her favor.

If she wins by a very narrow margin, she's losing momentum.

And if Obama beats her in Pennsylvania? She will face powerful pressure to withdraw rather than further divide the party.

Filed under: Bill Schneider • Exit Polls • Pennsylvania
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. 4Hillary

    I guess all the REAL reporters are on a long vacation! LOL!

    Funny how the headline does not say – "O-Bitter, who outspent Clinton 3-1 should drop out if he loses PA"

    Money can buy endorsements but sure CAN NOT buy VOTES!!!

    GOOO Hillary!!!!!

    April 22, 2008 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  2. obamamama

    GO OBAMA....you da man!

    April 22, 2008 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  3. I used to be a Democrat

    If Obama doesn't win Pennsylvania he will have lost all the big states in the country. That is bad news for Democrats in November. Especially considering that the Obamanazis are turning everyone off to their candidate.

    Obama should drop out if he doesn't win today.

    April 22, 2008 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  4. Dayahka

    Enough already! If the primary season runs through June 3, why on earth should there be a nominee before that? Why not let the whole thing run its course? McCain isn't going anywhere. Give him a couple more months to dig himself into a great big hole, then we can have a Democratic nominee who can throw the earth in over him.

    April 22, 2008 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  5. v.ananthan



    April 22, 2008 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  6. DGW

    Bill, you have no news yet, wait for the polls to come in and then post this article! I feel so, what is the word?, I feel used that I even looked at this , I feel so darn "bitter"
    And Bill remember fair and balanced, remember!

    April 22, 2008 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  7. Venus The Super star

    If Hillary Clinton wins, its still a win no matter what margin. Obama has out spent her and used every possible way to win voters and if he loses under these circumstances, it will show a weekness that he can't win big and important key states when running against McCain.

    April 22, 2008 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  8. jeremy


    you are nuts. trust a liar? that just doesn't make sense.

    April 22, 2008 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  9. Tim B, KS

    The exit polls will suggest that there is a new kind of politics. The politics of changing clothes. We will find out that many voters are homeless people looking for a place to put on a new pair of pants in privacy.

    April 22, 2008 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  10. Colin

    Oh my gosh, Obama supporters would let Iran nuke Israel and would do nothing about it??? THat's scary.

    April 22, 2008 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  11. smokesignals

    Schneider, this is a ridiculous post and an unwarranted speculation. All a Clinton win will show, double digit or not, is that the Pennsylvania voters were duped and taken in by lies. An informed voter would know that. Look at Bill's shenanigans (another lie today) and tell me that an intelligent voter would still vote for Billary.

    April 22, 2008 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  12. kevin from alaska

    McCain beat Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

    An unproductive one-term governor from the liberal north east and a Christian with no appeal to anyone that believes anything remotely close to evolution.

    No wonder he won the nomination.

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  13. Texdem

    Bait and Switch!! The link says "first wave of exit polls arrives" .... so where are the exit polls?

    Arghh. Its hard enough being a political junkie, but that was a low blow CNN.

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  14. Montana Obama Grandma

    Hands down – June 3rd primary- Barack Obama will win in Montana..

    But as an independent voter- Hillary Clinton will have a very, very diffcult time getting independents to vote for her in the general election.

    Hillary's campaign is broke right now- How can she manage a country with severe debt when she can't run her campaign.. Let alone LOUD mouth Bill who can't remember what the heck he says from one minute to the next.

    Hillary will start another war (Iram comments) so how can she manage three wars because she doesn't read intelligence reports to stop any war.. She is a false hope for change..

    we are doomed just like the innocent people in Iran if Hillary claws her way to the top.

    As an Independent – I can not vote for her no matter what the future holds. I don' trust her and she lies straight up to us thining people are ignorant to her claims.

    Yes.... We... Can....

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  15. Eli

    I dont understand some people, this is what an election is all about, when the going gets tough you dont just drop out of the race. If you are in line for a big promotion at work and someone else is up for the same thing would you just say, "OH just give it to them Im dropping out I didnt really want it". If you did that you did not have any get up and go in you, you didnt deserve the promotion. If I was running for President and the race was this close I WOULD NOT GIVE UP AT ALL and I would bet that 80% of all Americans would not. If you disagree I think your not telling the truth, we are Americans we THINK we deserve everything.

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  16. mary

    Oh yes she is so intelligent and for the trust you bet.... But I was thinking what's gome happen april 25 in court with Palul vs Clinton... Anybody knows??

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  17. Mark M Kansas City

    *****Evelyn****** I have heard a number of reasons while people would choose to vote for Hillary, but you said you TRUST her. I am sorry to be so blunt, but that just makes you plain stupid.


    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  18. leo

    Hilary please put aside shame and pride. Obama is the better candidate. Hilary is not trustworthy.

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  19. Mike

    Obma can't close the deal. Hillary will be our next President. If hew can't win one big state then he is toast. And by the way, he may be slightly ahead but there is no blowout. Keep runnin Hillary.

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  20. An Agnostic Democrat

    And Bill Schneider and the rest of the crew at CNN will be supporting Hillary's final days with all the B.S. and gaseous punditry. Whatver will they do when they have to go back to their real jobs? Oh that's right!
    They weren't doing their real jobs before all this either, otherwise they wouldn't have joined the Bush administration in the march into war without even questioning or investigating its legitimacy!!!

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  21. Chut Pata

    Correction Bill (Schneider)! Slipping from 30 point lead to a 10 point lead is NOT gaining momentum 🙂 She WILL have a consolation last win, but it wont even wipe Obamas lead. Then she will ultimately loose much more than her gains here, over there in SC etc.

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  22. kimbelina

    there is a reason hillary is still in it. there is also a reason she may not win it... because Americans are too stupid to not vote for her!

    April 22, 2008 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  23. trl

    This blue-collared white male is voting for Obama.

    April 22, 2008 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
  24. David Minneapolis

    I think that Pennsylvania will prove to be the moment of truth. Just as noone thought that Hillary would win in New Hampshire after Barack's commanding performance in Iowa, noone, except maybe talk radio hosts in Pennsylvania, and msnbc pundits on the ground in PA, think that Barack has a chance. Well take those 200,000 or so new registered voters, and independents, and so many who are just plain tired of this race, and you have the potential for an upset. 58% of democratic voters polled do not BELIEVE Senator Clinton. How can you vote for someone you don't BELIEVE. Not to mention the fact that the Clinton Campaign is broke, again, and you know what they say about drowning.

    April 22, 2008 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
  25. Susan

    Hillary is so high and mighty on health care but won’t even provide health care for her campaign workers.

    Her campaign is 10 million in debt.

    She lies like there’s no tomorrow.

    She blames other people for her own mistakes.

    She’s a train wreck waiting to happen!

    April 22, 2008 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
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