April 22nd, 2008
05:27 PM ET
15 years ago

Schneider: What the exit polls will show

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/04/16/art.clinton.obama.jpg caption="Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have establised bases according to exit polls."]
(CNN) - The Democratic race has been going on for four months. Is anything changing? The exit polls will tell us.

Each candidate has established a base. Hillary Clinton's includes women, seniors, blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Latinos.

Barack Obama's base includes African-Americans, young voters, affluent professionals, and Independents.

Tonight's exit polls will show whether either candidate is making inroads into the other candidate's base. If nobody's moving, we may be doomed to more weeks of trench warfare, with each side trying to rally higher turnout from its base.

How will we know things are changing?

If she wins Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, which was her margin in neighboring New Jersey and Ohio, we'll know the race is shifting in her favor.

If she wins by a very narrow margin, she's losing momentum.

And if Obama beats her in Pennsylvania? She will face powerful pressure to withdraw rather than further divide the party.


Filed under: Bill Schneider • Exit Polls • Pennsylvania
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. ABG

    I think the biggest question is, why does Barach Obama think he should not be winning PA?

    I would think the big states with the same demographics would be easy for him to win if everyone thought he could actually had the credentials to deliver Hope and Change!

    April 22, 2008 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
  2. Anne E.

    I'm hoping for an upset victory/surprising turn of events in Obama's favor.
    As a former Clinton supporter, I cannot believe their antics and am fed up with the both of them.
    We do NOT need a president who rattles sabres she doesn't yet have.
    Seems to me that any candidate who touts the "experience," and "unique set of qualifications" she claims she has wouldn't be talking about nuking at all! Every time she opens her mouth, I'm glad I voted for Obama!

    April 22, 2008 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
  3. jak

    How very sad.............

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  4. John Abrams

    She's done in 2 weeks anyway....so win she may, hopefully, by a small margin, let the media have it's field day, but NC and IN are in the bag....the buck stops in 2 weeks...like many of you have pointed out, a win in a state where she is favored by demographics, etc, doesn't spell momentum.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  5. Shawna

    I can't wait to see how the votes swing, especially the newly registered voters, and those who switch party affiliation.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  6. Lisa Nyx

    Hillary needs to leave town, go home and settle down with Bill. She needs to be content with the decisions she has made since becoming senator and realize that voting for a war that shouldn't be happening will be her downfall. Many of us ladies would love to have a woman in the white house...but not this one. I'll take someone who had perspective and voted against this war over anyone else any day.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  7. ***AMERICAN***

    She will still be in the wheelhouse when the USS Clinton is run aground. That is dedication!

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  8. Sara from Arizona

    Obama 08!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  9. James

    I am tired of CNN being biased against Clinton. The media has done nothing but show her in a bad light...which is what the media is known for, I guess. I can't imagine CNN (Clinton News Network) changing their name to ONN... you feel me?
    And, secondly, it's definitely not fair for CNN to CONSTANTLY say that Obama as attracted the African American population. BELIEVE me, this is not an accurate statement. I am black... and I would never in my life vote for Obama. I never would cast my vote based on the racial background of the candidate. But...that's the difference between being ignorant and rational.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  10. Sharon Ohio

    Obama can't win over McCain

    He has proven he bulks under pressure and questions.

    He has proven he is merely words in a speech.

    He has proven he Backbone to Stand up.

    He has proven he is Unpatriotic and all about race and his church.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  11. Voter from PA

    For all the other states posting comments....PA will turn out for Hillary and our voices will be heard! Trust me, the way Obama has been courting our vote, he knows this is an important state to win...and it isn't going to happen. I almost felt sorry for the Obama campaing worker that showed up at my door this afternoon...he looked so down, and I was just another door to tell him my vote had already been cast for Hillary.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  12. DDG

    What does Obama stand for? Does any one know? What has he voted? Does any one know? What does his record of voting indicate? Does any one know? Who is Obama other than a person running for office with "change" as his campaign mantra?

    In my eyes Hillary represents change with a voting record that indicates to me that she believes what she says she believes in and her work history indicates the same.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  13. Thanh

    The silent moderates and independents are going to swing over to McCain if Obama gets the nomination. Obama's policies shifting towards a welfare state and curbing free markets are not what the majority of this country wants or needs.

    April 22, 2008 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  14. Anonymous

    Pennsylvanians are handing the election to McCain if they vote for Hillary.

    April 22, 2008 05:48 pm at 5:48 pm |
  15. justobserve

    To just catch up with Obama's pledge delegates, Clinton has to win 64-68% for the remaining 10 states. If the winner of more pledge delegates is not the nominee, then why do we waste everyone's time for the primaries & caucuses? Voters who TRUST Clinton don't know what the Clintons are made of, even after their incomes reveals of their work behind the scene for special interests? It can only be explained by the Clintons' talented acting skill : the best swindlers.

    April 22, 2008 05:48 pm at 5:48 pm |
  16. Bye Bye Hillary

    go Obama

    April 22, 2008 05:48 pm at 5:48 pm |
  17. Ms TN

    I am a black female and absolutely refuse to vote Obama. The idea of what Obama represents is what draws crowds. It is attractive. But we're talking about the president of the U.S people. My president whose pastor can't get over the civil rights movement? Hell, he's having a tough time quiting cigarettes! Change? Heck, orange hair is change but I am not going to buy orange hair dye and hope for the best. Neither have experience as president. But I'd rather go with the person who knows what it at least looks like rather than someone whose seen it only in text books! I heard a saying once "stick with the devil you know rather than the one you don't."

    Go Hillary!

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  18. Ken

    How are all you Obama fans going to feel when he gets beaten by McCain?

    Al Gore should have beat Bush, but didn't.
    Kerry should have beat Bush, but didn't.

    Now, once again, Democrats will pull out another general election defeat if Obama gets the nomination.

    Go Hillary!!!!! Never quit!!!!!!!

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  19. george

    How can you not like this guy-BO?
    He's got game.
    He’s not only an exceptional and intelligent human being, he's cute, he's witty, he's elegant and he's a jock!
    I want him as our President so bad. Never have I identified with a political figure as I do with him. He speaks for me more than anyone ever has.
    There is nothing fake about Obama. Never have I beeen able to say that about ANYONE in the political sphere.
    That's it, folks. It's a slam dunk.
    This great man will make one of our greatest presidents.
    LONG LIVE BARACK OBAMA!! What a WINNER!!!

    A White, Male, Obama supporter & Hungry For Some PRINCIPLES!!

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  20. Sean

    You guys are stupid and just trying to be balanced when you say the race would be shifting in her favor. It's mathematically impossible for her to get the nomination no matter what unless super delegates and that would never happen.

    Why does being balanced in news media mean lying sometimes?

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  21. Rick

    From an earlier comment:

    "why should hillary quit? why dont obama just go away?"

    The answer, dear lady, is because he knows that he must keep up the fight or forever have it on his conscience that he gave it over to those less capable. Not to mention to those who struggle with the language.

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  22. 4Hillary

    Well.... I am "clinging" to my religion todayt o pray not because I'm "bitter" but because I have FAITH that GOD will give Hillary a BIG Win today!!!!

    No more WIMPS in the White House!!! We need a FIGHTER!!!

    Hillary "Rocky" Clinton!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  23. CNN SUCKS 08

    CNN and the media in general want to drag this contest all the way to Democratic convention; however, a lot of Americans are getting sick with all the negativity that Hillary is bringing to the table. I would suggest the following to Obama: Leave the Democratic Party to Hillary and run as an independent. Forget the DNC and all the rhetoric. There are enough of us fed up with the Democratic Party and the two party system that we are willing to vote for Obama if he ran as an independent. I would not donate a penny to the Democratic Party if Hillary is the nominee. I would rather another round of Republicans before voting for the selfish, liar, and flip-flopper Hillary.

    PS: Clinton News Channel (CNN) Sucks

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  24. Patricia

    During the Debate George should have never been a Moderator, since he was an Advisor to President Clinton.

    George and Charlie Ambushed Obama. Hillary had all the questions in advanced.

    The World knew Hillary had the questions because they gave them to her. If George had any Integrity, he should have excused himself.

    McCain and the Repugs will bring out the Blue Dress, Impeachment, Disbarment, Bosnia Sniper Fire, The Death of Vince Foster, Bimbo Eruption, Clinton taking money, etc.

    Why in the world have all the Clinton enemies such as Hannity ben courting Hillary. Joe in the morning saying he loves Hillary and then telling Rachel, she cannot talk about MCain because he's been around for decades.

    Get a clue the Repugs want Hillary because they do not want to seem like racist to the entire World.

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  25. Brian C

    I'm in PA, just voted for Obama, and I'm a middle-aged white guy NOT in Philly or Pittsburgh. But I think there are just too many socially conservative Democrats in this state for Obama to take it. If he gets within 3-5% it'll be a big, big night for him. It'll be a long night because we'll be waiting for all the counties to come in.

    April 22, 2008 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
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