April 22nd, 2008
05:27 PM ET
15 years ago

Schneider: What the exit polls will show

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/04/16/art.clinton.obama.jpg caption="Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have establised bases according to exit polls."]
(CNN) - The Democratic race has been going on for four months. Is anything changing? The exit polls will tell us.

Each candidate has established a base. Hillary Clinton's includes women, seniors, blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Latinos.

Barack Obama's base includes African-Americans, young voters, affluent professionals, and Independents.

Tonight's exit polls will show whether either candidate is making inroads into the other candidate's base. If nobody's moving, we may be doomed to more weeks of trench warfare, with each side trying to rally higher turnout from its base.

How will we know things are changing?

If she wins Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, which was her margin in neighboring New Jersey and Ohio, we'll know the race is shifting in her favor.

If she wins by a very narrow margin, she's losing momentum.

And if Obama beats her in Pennsylvania? She will face powerful pressure to withdraw rather than further divide the party.

Filed under: Bill Schneider • Exit Polls • Pennsylvania
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. Fed up

    This may have been the dumbest thing I have ever read on CNN. How in the world is she picking up momentum when she has lost 20%-25% of her following in PA? If she doesn't win by a land slide tonight, there is no point in continuing. She needs to win all the remaining states by atleast 65% to catch up in the delegate race. That isn't even going to happen tonight, let alone in the remaining states. And her campaign can't even afford this!! This just sounds like poor judgement on her part. She is fighting a battle she statistically can't win. And why haven't the superdelegates realized that themselves? The country has already spoken for a democratic candidate. I am ready to focus on defeating McCain!!

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  2. Jordan

    Nice spin Bill Schneider! Schneider explain to readers how is Hillary gaining momentum after going down from her initial 25% lead in Pennsylvania?

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  3. Molly

    GO HILLARY !!!!
    Obama will not win with his radical friends and very questionable background. Hillary will win big in PA, do well in the remaining states, count FL & MI votes – and she wins the popular vote.
    Maybe now Obama should step aside for the good of the party!

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  4. Angela

    So what if Obama has cut into her lead. She will still win and it is not indicative of Obama having the ability to beat McCain. He can't. Hillary can. I've said this over and over and over again. If Obama is the nominee come november McCain will be our next president. Some of you are beating on cinderella and we all know she had to leave the dance early. That is whats going to happen if Obama runs against McCain. You watch and see. I promise I won't come on here and say I told you so. You ever going to put anything on that I respond too CNN??

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  5. lynda

    CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT!!!!!!! she is our only hope to repair what Bush has done not some wet behind the ears junior senetor who admits he hates America!

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  6. True

    We already know that Hillary is going to win with all her well oil machinery. Ed and Nutter

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  7. Constant

    How can you talk about Hillary loosing momentum? Since when did she gain momentum in the first place. Obama had a seires of 11 wins before we talked about him having momentum and now just because she won texas and Ohio you think she ahd momentum? Obama came to Pen to reduce the gap between them and if she wins by a norrow margin his goal is met.

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  8. Allan

    Based on what you've shared on air so far, Barack is cutting into several of her base constituencies (Iraq, seniors) and improving with the black voter. Could it be that Obama has won PA?

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  9. rae

    Pennsylvanians are level headed, practical, good down to earth, salt of the earth, people. That is why Hillary will win Penn.

    They know better than to vote for a not even one term senator, a 'done nothin' senator who was so ambitious he couldn't even finish out his senate term and chose to run for Pres. The EGO on that upstart is unbelievable.

    He's got a lot of young people fooled, people who are easily fooled anyway by anything new that comes down the pike. And of course he's got overwhelming black support because well, he's black! But that's it. And that can't win in the general election.

    Go Hillary!!

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  10. R.I.F.

    Evelyn April 22nd, 2008 5:38 pm ET

    As a former Pennsylvania, born and raised in Reading – If I still lived there Hillary would have my vote. She is intelligent, experienced, and I TRUST her.

    I don't know where you live but I'm really happy that you only get to vote once. The fact that you said you TRUST her defies the law of reason. Proof that Obama may never win the uneducated voter. When you talk to adults like adults they don't understand. The just want someone to feed them some bull so they feel good.

    Obama '08

    April 22, 2008 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  11. Chris


    "United we stand, divided we fall." Please Hillary, let us unite!

    That, my friend, is one of the best oxymoron statement.

    Hillary = I, I, I and Me
    Obama = We, We, We and Us

    April 22, 2008 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  12. David, Silver Spring, MD

    The potential outcome is being examined according to what it means for Hillary in isolation. But if Obama trails by 15%, can't we say that shows that he survived all the recent controversy?

    It isn't all about whether Hillary is gaining momentum or losing momentum, it's also about the short term impact of some pretty thick mud thrown Obama's way.

    I say given all that Obama has been through over the last two weeks, getting within 20% shows he's a survivor and ready to move on to NC and Indiana.

    April 22, 2008 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  13. Robert

    "Obama can't win over McCain

    He has proven he bulks under pressure and questions.

    He has proven he is merely words in a speech.

    He has proven he Backbone to Stand up.

    He has proven he is Unpatriotic and all about race and his church."


    April 22, 2008 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  14. KM

    If Clinton wins today she's won every state that matters for the party and will get more support where it matters. That's why todays win will be a big one.

    April 22, 2008 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  15. Rigo

    So do we finally have enough evidence that debates run by major corporations is not in our best interest as a citizenry, or was the other night's Philadephia debacle not enough to convince us?

    April 22, 2008 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  16. Suzanne McGuire

    I am TRULY amazed that the men of this country are still afraid of women. They wouldn't allow us to vote and they now are afraid that we will have some power over them (the men?). It is so much like the "cults" that have been allowed to exist in this country. Men must dominate – women must be subservient to THEM – no matter who or what they respresent. This country has been dominated by powerful men for so long that they do not know how to allow "freedom for all". They want women to be slaves to them.
    Women, please stand up for your rights that everyone has strived for for so many generations.

    April 22, 2008 05:52 pm at 5:52 pm |
  17. obama will blow Mcsame

    Obama will tear grandpa monster in Nov... I cant see how he will save himself in a debate with Obama :)... Bush 3rd is getting a free ride as long as dems are done with primary season...he wont last a single debate against Obama...

    Grandpa monster is older than plutonium..

    April 22, 2008 05:52 pm at 5:52 pm |
  18. noemi in los angeles

    I can't hardly wait until the polls are closed and results show that Obama won! I am a bitter professional, Catholic, Latina living in Los Angeles with friends and family supporting Barack Obama. Not all Catholics are supporting Clinton, not all Latinos are supporting Clinton and definitely not all women are supporting Clinton. We are more than drained seeing her divide our party. We want change and we want it now. My name is Noemi, I voted for Barack Obama, I am part of the Obama Generation and I am powered by Hope.

    April 22, 2008 05:52 pm at 5:52 pm |
  19. Hillary Clinton

    Grif, Evelyn, Susan, Shirley I see alot of you females supporting me and thats good BUT I would like to remind you that Sen. Obama is a decent man, he is a man of integrity and truth. I know I will most likely win Pa but thats all I have left. I threw the kitchen sinks at him and he has stood the test!
    I would like to take this opportunity to have you vote for the best candidate ~ one who speaks the TRUTH!

    April 22, 2008 05:52 pm at 5:52 pm |
  20. Colin

    Obama supporters would not do a thing if Iran nuked Israel, Obama will never win the general election.

    April 22, 2008 05:52 pm at 5:52 pm |
  21. A foreigner in US

    Why the media always makes such a generalization that young, affluent, and professional are for Obama. The media never mentions that African americans who vote for Obama are less educated, and with lower income???

    April 22, 2008 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  22. Sante

    Obama , step aside for the Good of the Party.

    You offer only steem, anyhow!
    America never will become Sosialism, Obama tipe!!!!

    April 22, 2008 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  23. Mike in PA

    James, its not the media's fault that Hillary is being shown in a bad light. Its WHAT SHE IS. They are reporting what they see and hear.

    She has no chance at being president nor should she.

    April 22, 2008 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  24. daniel

    Just stand behind a tree and watch.... Clinton will secure the nomination. People like her don't go down easily and they make sure they take everyone down around them. Sadly, no matter who wins the nomination.... or even the Presidency...for that matter... will have a direct effect on 80% of the population. I love Clinton, I like Obama and I like McCain. As a democrat, I could possibly vote for any of them in November. While all 3 have their quirks and idiosycnhrosies, Obama won't beat McCain in November. I can't imagine another four years of Republican rule...even though I do like McCain.

    April 22, 2008 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  25. thinktank

    Guess it's true that BO has the youth votes. Many of the probama comments appear sophomoric if not downright obnoxious. No kind of politically intelligent or insightful analysis.

    My guess is that many of you probama bloggers are college kids who thinks by supporting BO in the way you do is an expression of rebellion against the establishment.

    Be informed. BO is more of a same-ole politician chicago style than he would like you to know. He blames HRC & media for focusing on side issues & negative campaigns, yet his neg campaign is outspending HRC. Hypocrite!

    April 22, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
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