April 22nd, 2008
05:27 PM ET
15 years ago

Schneider: What the exit polls will show

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/04/16/art.clinton.obama.jpg caption="Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have establised bases according to exit polls."]
(CNN) - The Democratic race has been going on for four months. Is anything changing? The exit polls will tell us.

Each candidate has established a base. Hillary Clinton's includes women, seniors, blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Latinos.

Barack Obama's base includes African-Americans, young voters, affluent professionals, and Independents.

Tonight's exit polls will show whether either candidate is making inroads into the other candidate's base. If nobody's moving, we may be doomed to more weeks of trench warfare, with each side trying to rally higher turnout from its base.

How will we know things are changing?

If she wins Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, which was her margin in neighboring New Jersey and Ohio, we'll know the race is shifting in her favor.

If she wins by a very narrow margin, she's losing momentum.

And if Obama beats her in Pennsylvania? She will face powerful pressure to withdraw rather than further divide the party.

Filed under: Bill Schneider • Exit Polls • Pennsylvania
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. jeremy


    have you ever read anything about HRC? her background consists of some very shady periods. you should be happy that obama is above the bashing of character.

    April 22, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  2. cindy

    go go Hillary Can't wait to see you win in Pennsylvania .
    Hillary Clinton 08 get used to it boys

    April 22, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  3. Bill in Illinois

    What really worries me is that Hillary will cry and whine and do everything she can to get Fla. and Mich. results counted in a an attempt to get elected.
    I do think that it is important for her to stay in the race, at least for the short term. That will give her the opportunity to demonstrate to the voters that an administration with her at the helm will just be more of the same old thing.
    And – here's a scary thought for you. Does Hillary and Nancy Pelosi having that much influence over what happens to our country let you sleep well tonight?

    April 22, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  4. Newman

    Obama will close the deal! If Hillary stops doing John McCain's work for him. She's been helping McCain all along these last 6 weeks, and it's no secret that John and Hillary are not going at it like a couple of pit-bulls like she's done to Obama. No more lies. No more Clintons!

    April 22, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  5. Obama 4 prez

    Obama: inspirational, smart, honest ...refreshing!
    Hillary: Boring, sly, dishonest (misspeaks a lot) ...same ol' politics!

    April 22, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  6. Losing Hope in America

    Sadly, the longer this drags out, the more it looks like the people who gave us eight years of "W" are going to find a way to get us 8 years of McBush.

    April 22, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  7. citizen-Denver

    Mrs. Clinton is resilient, I want see her Knok Offf. I am an Obama supporter and I want the race to continue till she knok off from the race without Super Delegates involvements. Soon, she be out of cash....and?

    April 22, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  8. Gollum

    I see that some Obamatons (or maybe just one using a lot of names?) posts about how Hillary had a 30 point lead some time ago. Not true. There was some outlier poll in that territory, but otherwise the margin has been 15-20. So she has lost some ground since then, which of course is natural considering that Obama has outspent her 3 to 1 for a couple of weeks... A 10+ victory for Hillary is good for her, and a dissapointment for Obama.

    April 22, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  9. Inna Vaughan

    Regardless of what happens tonight, Sen. Clinton will get my vote. If Sen. Clinton does not win, my vote goes to McCain.

    April 22, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  10. michael in MO

    It is long overdue for all of us to finally stop playing the American Idol game and acknowledge the hypocracy of Obama. He is an empty suit – a nice gift box with nothing inside. He does not offer this country leadership in any tangible sense – he offers words. He offers hope. We don't have time to "hope" for "change." For someone who touts not being a part of the Washington system, his "change" platform is one of the oldest politcal dog-n-pony shows known. This man has no vested interests in the needs of Americans and the betterment of our country, domestically and internationally. He is in this for one thing only – Obama. For the country's sake, please get real and vote for Hillary.

    April 22, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  11. KM

    All McCain will have to do is say something that has substance to it and Obama will start drooling and mummer something about hope and the election will be lost.

    April 22, 2008 05:56 pm at 5:56 pm |
  12. KEVIN


    April 22, 2008 05:56 pm at 5:56 pm |
  13. Kim

    In the beginning I was supporting Hillary Clinton, but then it seems like she lost her mind. Hillary had no respect for Obama and didnt take him or his campaign serious. If she had of been on her game this would have been over already. Clinton please stop doing damage to the party. How can you demean Obama so much and then say 'hey we will unite'. If you had not have been so nasty you could have become the first female vice president, but now I would not want Obama to dirty himself with you, your husband, or your campaign.

    April 22, 2008 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  14. 4Hillary

    jeremy April 22nd, 2008 5:43 pm ET

    you are nuts. trust a liar? that just doesn't make sense

    LIAR?? LOL!!! I think you should rewind all of O-Bitter's statements...you know when he says one thing and has his camp do another!

    O-Bitter...."Hypocrasy you can beleive in"

    We have your back, Hillary!!!!

    ~~~ GOD BLESS AMERICA!!! ~~~~~

    April 22, 2008 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  15. HSNP

    Alex in TX – the demographics in NC don't favor Barack Obama.....in November when it counts, like MOST of the other states he's won.

    April 22, 2008 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  16. Ann


    April 22, 2008 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  17. Lynn

    these divisions is ridiculous, divisive and full of holes. A vote is a vote...what about a white man who is Catholic who votes for Obama...or a black woman who is affluent and university educated who votes for Clinton.

    The media has literally LOST IT with their bizarre coverage.

    April 22, 2008 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  18. Venus

    Go Obama! Just win! It's time for new ways to poll and review old politics!

    April 22, 2008 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  19. Richey's, Pasadena

    The numbers say hillary has lost the nomination. She cannot catch up.
    The Clintons will try the underhanded backdoor sneaky way to try and get superdelegates. Bill has already said that pledged delegates don't HAVE TO vote for the candidate that they are pledged to. Can you say "disenfranchisement"? Sick.

    April 22, 2008 05:58 pm at 5:58 pm |
  20. edmond

    cnn please stop having fun with this,cus u know it will all be over in the next two weeks in indiana and north carolina

    April 22, 2008 05:58 pm at 5:58 pm |
  21. cindy

    the news media should report this I am very srong democrat and a delegate and I will cross party lines and vote republican if obama wins the primary so there is noway he can win the whitehouse he needs hills votes and noway he is going to get them, we will all vote mcain at least he loves this country and ALL the people in it , obama is already trying to spin his loss in Pa , he is unelectable report that too divisive not a uniter a divider

    April 22, 2008 05:58 pm at 5:58 pm |
  22. Cowboy Jack

    Today, I encourage typical white people to vote present....

    If you do, for the first time in my adult life, I'll be proud of my country....

    Obama/Rezko '08: Change without experience

    April 22, 2008 05:58 pm at 5:58 pm |
  23. Jane

    Hillary is going to get drop kicked in NC. Her days of smiling and gloating are very short lived. A record number of first time voters in PA are overwhelmingly for Obama. That's wonderful news.


    April 22, 2008 05:58 pm at 5:58 pm |
  24. daniel

    Interestingly to note.... as another poster said Obama will win Montana hands down. Well, Obama has continued to win all the states that are rather useless to the rest of the nation. Go figure, a useless candidate winning the useless states...such as Montana. These useless and meaningless states mean nothing. For those fanatics that stand in lines and in school gymnasiums for hours to vote for a candidate...that right there should tell you something about the configuration of the country.
    CLINTON 08

    April 22, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  25. Jack from WV

    Trench warfare so this is what the media is now calling this smear and fear campaign of Hillary Clinton. If Obama stooped to the level the Clinton’s have to win everyone would say he is a woman hater but since it’s Hillary that’s ok with them, talk about your double standards from the media.
    I recall Bill and his down sizing of the military and now Hillary mentioned using nuclear weapons against Iran, now that’s irony. The Clinton’s never had much use for the military and with her statement that’s quit a bit different than Bill’s stand years ago. I didn’t trust Bill years ago and I don’t trust Hillary now and hope that the Clinton’s will retire from politics and fade away quietly and quickly!!

    April 22, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
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