April 22nd, 2008
05:27 PM ET
15 years ago

Schneider: What the exit polls will show

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/04/16/art.clinton.obama.jpg caption="Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have establised bases according to exit polls."]
(CNN) - The Democratic race has been going on for four months. Is anything changing? The exit polls will tell us.

Each candidate has established a base. Hillary Clinton's includes women, seniors, blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Latinos.

Barack Obama's base includes African-Americans, young voters, affluent professionals, and Independents.

Tonight's exit polls will show whether either candidate is making inroads into the other candidate's base. If nobody's moving, we may be doomed to more weeks of trench warfare, with each side trying to rally higher turnout from its base.

How will we know things are changing?

If she wins Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, which was her margin in neighboring New Jersey and Ohio, we'll know the race is shifting in her favor.

If she wins by a very narrow margin, she's losing momentum.

And if Obama beats her in Pennsylvania? She will face powerful pressure to withdraw rather than further divide the party.

Filed under: Bill Schneider • Exit Polls • Pennsylvania
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. cindy

    why is the media so bias against Hillary Clinton

    April 22, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  2. Colin


    April 22, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  3. ak

    GO Hillary!!! We all know you are the best candidate. All of the Obama supporters above are just scared. Talk, talk, talk, this is all they can do.

    April 22, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  4. What?

    What's wrong with this statement, "Hillary will cry and whine and do everything she can to get Fla. and Mich. results counted in a an attempt to get elected." Oh, I'm sorry Obama supporter, you would rather votes not count? Obama says he's the change candidate but he didn't have balls enough to go against the DNC and register on the ballot in Michigan, he deserves to not get those votes counted toward him.

    April 22, 2008 06:00 pm at 6:00 pm |
  5. Bessie

    Go Hillary! Go Hillary! GO Hillary!

    Obama will never carry these Battleground States in the general election get real people.

    Arkansas always for Hillary!

    April 22, 2008 06:00 pm at 6:00 pm |
  6. Bill

    If Obama wins a caucas in Alaska it's considered a big win, if Hillary wins in PA by whatever margin it is still a win. Obama is such a loser that his backing pundits will claim a victory even if he loses. He outspent Hillary nearly 2 to 1 so if he loses by even a little it counts in my book at least as a loss.

    April 22, 2008 06:01 pm at 6:01 pm |
  7. Antoinette

    Affluent professionals ought to tell you alot about Obama's supporters

    We're pretty bright

    April 22, 2008 06:01 pm at 6:01 pm |
  8. Rigo

    Has anyone noticed how much more eloquent one has to be now to not look like a fool in these recent Democratic debates, and really in all of them? Just compare that to our intellectually vapid commander-in-chief and his debates against Kerry in '04. How on earth did that guy survive those debates? Man, we've come a long way, at least with Obama and Hillary. It's unfortunate that the moderators of these debates, however, are corrupted into asking inane questions about Weather Underground and pastor preferences and other issues that are relatively meaningless.

    April 22, 2008 06:01 pm at 6:01 pm |
  9. Clinton or McCain, but NEVER obama

    obama is so unfit.............

    April 22, 2008 06:02 pm at 6:02 pm |
  10. Brandy- I love Obama!

    Bloggers like "E.C., Houston, TX" are a huge example of the ignorance and hatred in America. It's so sad. There are so other issues going on with you E.C. I won't say it on this blog.

    Obama 08

    April 22, 2008 06:03 pm at 6:03 pm |
  11. Generation XYer

    I don't see how the Hillbots believe that she will have a chance in 2012 if she does not get it here. She has burned so many bridges (labor, the left, African Americans, Independents, etc.) that she will not have a fighting chance to run again. This was her chance and if she does not get it this time, there are no more chances...ask Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry...you get one bite at the apple before you are told to sit down and shut up! I am hoping she will challenge Harry Reid for Senate Majority Leader because he's a wimp and we need her to throw the kitchen sink at Mitch! And maybe throw the bathroom sink at Nancy...we need some people in Congress with some b*lls! Congress is where all the legislation starts and ends!

    April 22, 2008 06:03 pm at 6:03 pm |
  12. cindy

    Mcain will stomp Obama into the ground , he has worse baggage than hillary ,Racisim, shady friends , making snobbing comments againts our bible and guns , domestic terrorist ties , and a ton of friends from many islamic countries , not to mention good old rev GD america , he is way to devisive and plays the race card every chance he gets

    April 22, 2008 06:03 pm at 6:03 pm |
  13. wolfsbane

    Sure, Hillary is picking up momentum. A fall has momentum, and she's fallen from a 30 point lead weeks ago in PA.

    GO Obama!

    April 22, 2008 06:04 pm at 6:04 pm |
  14. Hillarious Clinton

    I'm not a Clinton supporter, but don't you think "10" is simply an arbitrary number? Why not 9? 11? 20?

    Obama '08

    April 22, 2008 06:04 pm at 6:04 pm |
  15. Brandy- I love Obama!

    Obama will be the nominee and as you can see so many are getting on the train with him. ALL of you Obama haters will get left behind.

    Yes we can! Obama 08

    April 22, 2008 06:05 pm at 6:05 pm |
  16. What?

    Antoinette, I think "affluent professionals" would know something that a lot is two words, I doubt you're an affluent professional, just the kind of person who thinks they are and, thus, an Obama supporter. No backing to your statements.

    April 22, 2008 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  17. Venus

    Go Obama!
    Hillary should have BLEW you off the planet months ago if she is so great! Gives me pure pleasure to see 3-Clintons – and their gangs go after a rookie! I love it!

    April 22, 2008 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  18. king from toronto

    i feel bad, that i have to be,repeating myself over and over.it's bin over since super tuesday!!!!.

    April 22, 2008 06:07 pm at 6:07 pm |
  19. Not really...

    Brandy, all us Obama haters won't be left behind, we'll be voting republican.

    April 22, 2008 06:07 pm at 6:07 pm |
  20. Sage Bill

    What the heck is wrong with the Obama supporters? A LOSS is a LOSS. In what parallel universe does a win equate to 20-30% point margins? Democracy is guided by one principle: one man, one vote. If more people vote for Clinton, she wins. If voters in Florida and Michigan do not get heard, democracy has been seriously breached, rules or no rules. The arguments of the Obama side are idiocy and fly in the face of democracy the world over. Hillary will win PA today and the race should go on.

    April 22, 2008 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  21. ak

    People wake up! I guess, what should I expect from a nation who voted for Bush. Wait! I know, another Bush, I mean Obama.

    April 22, 2008 06:10 pm at 6:10 pm |
  22. Nancy

    Why do any of you care if Hillary is still in it? There is a high number of dems that still want her there and If she was not still there then Obama would be talking about McCain and all of you would say McCain is bad so what difference does it make who Obama goes against and talks bad about because some of you think Obama walks on water so who cares who he is running against.

    April 22, 2008 06:12 pm at 6:12 pm |
  23. jack

    the best man ever obama 08

    April 22, 2008 06:12 pm at 6:12 pm |
  24. Judy Harwood

    When Clinton wins in Penn. what it will show is that she is the one able to cary the large states with the most electoral votes; something that Obama had not done. If anyone remembers the last election, it was not the popular vote that gave Bush the election; it was the electroal vote.

    April 22, 2008 06:13 pm at 6:13 pm |
  25. Adrian

    She was leading by 26 points just three weeks ago. Any win by less than 25 points shows that she's losing momentum. It's perposterous to say that a win by more than 10% means Obama is faltering. If Obama was in Hillary's position at this point in the race it would be OVER.

    April 22, 2008 06:13 pm at 6:13 pm |
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