May 1st, 2008
02:27 PM ET
15 years ago

Blitzer: Should Clinton's swing state edge be a factor?

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption=" Blitzer: Could new polls sway some superdelegates?"] WASHINGTON (CNN) - There are new polls suggesting Hillary Clinton might fare better against John McCain in three key Electoral College battleground states in November than Barack Obama. These are states the two parties will be fighting over desperately in the general election – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The polls are snapshots and are certainly not conclusive evidence that she would in fact be a more formidable candidate against McCain in those states than Obama. A lot, of course, can change between now and November. But the polls are significant because they could influence those still-undecided superdelegates – and perhaps even some decided superdelegates who can change their minds.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton is currently ahead of McCain in Florida, 49 percent to 41 percent. In the same poll, McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 44 percent to 43 percent.

In Ohio, the poll shows Clinton ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 38 percent. McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 43 percent to 42 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead of McCain, 51 percent to 37 percent. Obama is also ahead of McCain in this state, but by a slightly smaller margin - 47 percent to 38 percent.

As you know, Clinton defeated Obama by about ten points in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Florida, there was no campaigning because the state had moved up its primary against Democratic Party rules. But all the candidates’ names were on the ballots, and Clinton won decisively.

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will see a lot of campaigning in the months ahead. McCain is already spending lots of time there – as he should if he wants to be president. So should these latest polls be a serious factor in the minds of superdelegates?

Filed under: Wolf Blitzer
soundoff (325 Responses)
  1. Matt


    May 1, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  2. Nunya

    This sort of hypothetical poll, in this early situation, when the final candidate isn't known yet mean exactly nothing. There is zero information to be gained from them beyond knowing that someone took the time to conduct a meaningless poll. The superdelegates are free to consider whatever factors they please, but there are far more significant things for them to pay attention to.

    May 1, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  3. Trenton Sims, Los Angeles

    It's funny how her campaign uses polls when she is leading but when she's not leading she says "oh I don't watch the polls since they constantly change."

    More Clinton double talk.

    May 1, 2008 07:02 pm at 7:02 pm |
  4. Jo

    If Obama wins the election, Republicans take the White House. So, if Hillary exits the campaign - we have McCain for President. Now, who is harming the party - Obama, that's who!

    I don't see many blogs saying that a story about the TEN Things Obama likes is not news worthy - but that article is on this site.

    Oh, yeah! Who cares how many states Obama won. One of the states he won only has about 300,00 people in it. He won most of the states with small populations compared to Hillary winning most of the more populas states. She should be the nominee!

    May 1, 2008 07:02 pm at 7:02 pm |
  5. Allison Marie

    Of course that's how the general election works.

    Yes, she will!

    Clinton/Edwards 08/12

    May 1, 2008 07:02 pm at 7:02 pm |
  6. Concerned Voter

    I feel Clinton has always been the one to be McCain. From the beginning we have heard Republicans have voted for Obama so Hillary would not win the party's nomination so McCain would have a better chance to win. Apparently, that will be what happens if Obama wins the nomination. If Gor had won Tennessee he would have been President. The same will happen for Obama.

    May 1, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  7. Dee Vague

    I am stunned at all these new twists on how to get Hillary into the White House, I can't believe that people are saying that the press is being UNFAIR to the Clinton's, in months I have not seen seen one NEGATIVE report on the Clinton's,(other than her lie on Bosnia story) on any MSM, yet all we here is NEGATIVE about OBAMA Day in and DAY out, it amazes me this woman has NO chance to win in the real world of Politics, but that's right, there is NO REAL WORLD in the MEDIA, it must be owned by the Clintons, I know of at least 3 scandals out there that there is TRUTH to, yet the media won't cover them, WHY IS THAT. I HAVE stopped watching any News Cable show ANY of them, they are so bias. YOU WOLF, SHAME ON YOU, I really thought you were one of the good guys, I was wrong.

    May 1, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  8. Don

    The Obama infatuation has peaked. He is in a swan dive and there is no net. If for some reason he survives to win the democratic nomination, the republicans will eat him alive. Futhermore a large percentage of democrats will not vote for him. There is another shoe that will drop, hopefully it will happen before the DNC. Keep your eye on Chicago.

    May 1, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  9. Patsy

    My God Wolff...are you bias towards Hillary? I wish you "Older Journalists" would remember the Clinton times in your reporting. Seems a little one sided if you ask me. I use to think you were a fair reporter...I've since changed my mind! Do us all a favor and report the Clinton history for a day. Let's see what happens then!

    May 1, 2008 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |

    If the fact that she "won" these states help to determine the outcome of these polls then I would say no because she had help from Republicans in at least one, Ohio! And Fla. voted during Super Tuesday, at his time many did not know much about Obama at that time they selected her NAME. Plus she has revealed herself to a great many since I'm sure there are many with buyer's remorse!

    May 1, 2008 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  11. Zack Wingate

    Obviously Cnn just doesnt get it...they continually talk about this matter and then all agree that obama has the edge with independents and maybe some republicans like myself. But what i never hear any of these so called analysts say is hold on here in a general election with a republican canidate that borders on being an independent i would think you would want a democrat that has a chance of stealing away some of the all important independent and moderate republican vote ....democrats are going to vote for the democratic canidate in this election and with the economy and the war both going poorly you need a democrat that can reach out to the moderates who also find VALUES to be an important factor ....clinton does not have the reputation to do this!!! I am 25 and a registered republican and have never voted for a democrat and I will not if clinton is even on the ticket....she is a liar and no one can trust her and values do matter thats how bush won 4 years ago even though he was not very popular independents thought John Kerry had no values and that is the same opinion I have of Clinton....She will say anything and do anything to win ..regardless of normal values and decency

    May 1, 2008 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  12. Dani

    Her edge with swing states should absolutely be a factor. If you can't win the red swing states in primaries, what chance do you have in the general election, especially with the bitter bickering between Clinton and Obama. His bickering and whining does not make him any more desireable to a Democrat to vote for in November if he were to take the nomination, so without that support and without being able to win a red swing state in the first place you would have to factor in the edge for Clinton to pull it off....otherwise we may as well sit through 4 more years of a Bush style reign.

    May 1, 2008 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  13. Zack Wingate


    May 1, 2008 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  14. 1st time voter 53 yrs old

    I have never been so disappointed in both Obama and Hillary supporters. We are all democrats here and all of us have our favorite canidate we wish to win the nominee, but daily the comments are so negative against the other canidate they wish to not win the nominee, that this is what will break the party apart if anything. We shouldn't judge the other canidate by what other people feel, or what the media shoves in our faces daily. We all have individual reasons we are voting for a canidate and we all know we don't want another 4-8 yrs of Bushs policies, so the only negativity is coming from each nasty comment each of you writes.
    We all want a Democrat 09' so stay true to your canidate and if they don't win and you truly don't want the other canidate then don't vote, but that won't get a Democrat in the White House 09'.

    First time voter – Go Hillary or Democrat 09'

    May 1, 2008 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  15. Dustin in OR

    Throw out the polls that can be misleading, quit using buzz words like 'electability', and all that nonsense. Who's the better person? Who wants it for the right reasons? Who has a better chance of working with the other side and getting something positive done in DC? The Senator from Illinois it the best answer to those questions and it isn't close.

    May 1, 2008 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  16. vic nashville,Tn

    Obama playing basketball and bowling with flow citizen
    Hillary drinking a shot and filling the gas with flow citizen
    Do we need the guy playing game with us or the woman feel our feelings

    May 1, 2008 07:20 pm at 7:20 pm |

    its time blitzer realizes, that clinton is loosing and that the rules must be respected ,cos the dems prioritise delegates and popular vote to super delegates,which from all signs are favourable to obama.
    stop portraying the illogical ideal of an undemocratic idea of electability ,at the detriment of the dems ,just as to benefit hilary,i count on your vote for obama

    May 1, 2008 07:20 pm at 7:20 pm |
  18. drz

    I hate these stories about one set of polls. Check out the whole picture with all of the polls on pollster dot com. Yes, Hillary got a boost from PA, but it will be short-lived. Barack has still won more contests and has more delegates. Hillary cannot change that fact. The voters have spoken.

    May 1, 2008 07:21 pm at 7:21 pm |
  19. Doug

    That's funny... Rasmussen polls show that Obama vs. McCain is much stronger than Clinton vs. McCain in almost EVERY state.

    Also, since when were Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, and Virginia removed from "swing state" status? Obama won all of these – most of them handily. Why are these states less important than Pennsylvania and Ohio?

    May 1, 2008 07:21 pm at 7:21 pm |
  20. Cynthia

    You all are really getting ugly with your comments. We all need to face the fact that neither candidate can win without the other candidates people voting. All we have to go on is who has the most pledged delegates and popular votes and that should be our nominee.

    May 1, 2008 07:23 pm at 7:23 pm |
  21. Terry

    There is no doubt in my mind that during the General Election the Democrates world-wide will rally behind Obama, since he's the one who will recieve the nomination. If Hillary Clinton recieves it.; there will be trouble in the Black Community voting for her regardless what the polls say. I do not trust her not her husband; they will do what they have too to win regardless of the pain they cause.
    At this point in history most Americans don't know what to expect especially white Americans; There is a fear among the blacks as to if this is really possible and a fear among the whites, as to what would happen if a Black man is elected. Many fear retaliation because of the horrible way we have been treated. Really, there is no need to fear all we want is to live in peace and harmony with everyone else.

    May 1, 2008 07:24 pm at 7:24 pm |
  22. Anonymous

    Where do you think Hillarrys experience is coming from ha!!

    from Bill

    May 1, 2008 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  23. sunny

    if wright came out two month earlier obama was done with his carrier.cnn and nbc will playing very bias role and people watching very sensibaly. if obama is nominy he can win presidency but half of the people will lose fath in some media and dem party.

    May 1, 2008 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  24. kelley James

    When Obama was leading in the poll all the while cnn never made a big deal out of it. Hillary has a record that is scary. There are so many issues of her that Obama could have used to shut her down but never did because of the party. Wait till Republicans start bringing them out. People are going to hate her even more, Then we will see where she will stand in the poll that is if she is the nominee.

    May 1, 2008 07:30 pm at 7:30 pm |
  25. Marion Wiley

    Wolfe, I think superdelegates realize Obama would beat McCain far and away easier than Hillary could due to the honesty / integrity issue.
    Superdelegates as well as all voters should learn what Cornell Fowler, former reporter for the Des Moines Tribune, wrote in today's Des Moines Register: Fowler, whose father and grandfather were both pastors from the south side of Chicago,says that to understand the ruckus over Wright, you must understand the south side of Chicago, where Obama attends church. In this neighborhood Wright is typical. "You can hear that kind of stuff in dozens of churches." As much as Obama needed to denounce it, he still owed his political career to that 8000 +congregation at Trinity United Church of Christ. Fowler adds, "You don't choose a church just for the pastor. You go for the people in the church and how active they are in the community. "
    Maybe as an aspiring politician, this reason for his attachment to his church makes more sense than anything yet we've heard from the pundits.

    Marion in Iowa

    May 1, 2008 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
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