May 1st, 2008
02:27 PM ET
14 years ago

Blitzer: Should Clinton's swing state edge be a factor?

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption=" Blitzer: Could new polls sway some superdelegates?"] WASHINGTON (CNN) - There are new polls suggesting Hillary Clinton might fare better against John McCain in three key Electoral College battleground states in November than Barack Obama. These are states the two parties will be fighting over desperately in the general election – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The polls are snapshots and are certainly not conclusive evidence that she would in fact be a more formidable candidate against McCain in those states than Obama. A lot, of course, can change between now and November. But the polls are significant because they could influence those still-undecided superdelegates – and perhaps even some decided superdelegates who can change their minds.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton is currently ahead of McCain in Florida, 49 percent to 41 percent. In the same poll, McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 44 percent to 43 percent.

In Ohio, the poll shows Clinton ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 38 percent. McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 43 percent to 42 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead of McCain, 51 percent to 37 percent. Obama is also ahead of McCain in this state, but by a slightly smaller margin - 47 percent to 38 percent.

As you know, Clinton defeated Obama by about ten points in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Florida, there was no campaigning because the state had moved up its primary against Democratic Party rules. But all the candidates’ names were on the ballots, and Clinton won decisively.

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will see a lot of campaigning in the months ahead. McCain is already spending lots of time there – as he should if he wants to be president. So should these latest polls be a serious factor in the minds of superdelegates?

Filed under: Wolf Blitzer
soundoff (325 Responses)
  1. Yes We can

    Wolf, I am not sure if you think like you are a columist the same way one would write in NYT, Economist or Wall Street. Honestly, no body cares what you think. Just have your segment on TV and get off the internet.

    May 1, 2008 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  2. King in MO

    Some "emphasis on some" of you Hillary supporters seem too vindictive. I mean this is what turns a lot of males off of her. If you and Hillary were nuturing and understanding or maybe more humane at least we might think of voting for her. Everyone of us has run into that witchy evil woman at work that steps on everyone to get to the top and when she needs the little people nobody is there for her. Then she cries sexism or foul play. Men also know that sweet yet smart and strong woman that works her way up the latter, eats crow like everyone else, and is respected by all. I was raised around women and know a good woman when I see one. Hillary used to be that, but Washington politics changed her for the worse. Her supporters on here remind me of that everytime I see just evil comments written about Obama. Support your candidate without attacking people and maybe we might pay attention to the points she truly has an advantage over Obama. Just my observation, don't bite my head off about it.

    Obama/Webb 08

    Oha yeah CNN – report Pual VS Clintons CA

    May 1, 2008 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  3. A democratic interested in having a winning Democratic Ticket

    Yes, if the goal of the party is to win the Presidency of the United States and to either maintain or increase the Democratic representation in the House and Senate. Remember this is a representative democracy and representatives are entitled to their individual judgment whether or not it differs from the judgment of their voters. These superdelegates should also be concerned about their own elected positions and people on the rest of the ticket. If you can't win these swing states and Michigan and Florida Democratic voters are disgruntled because of the actions of the DNC can you really expect to win the election? A recent poll showed that Hillary Clinton can defeat John Mc Cain by nine points whereas Barack was in a statisical tie with Mc Cain and this is at a time when the present President has one of the highest disapproval rates in history. The recent news shows that Barack is losing momentum and whether or not it comes from Hillary's showing in Pennsylvania or with the reaction to the remarks of Pastor Wright, losing momentum is losing momentum. The key to the voting of these superdelegates should be to vote for the person he/she feels has the greatest chance of winning the general election. Oratory, personality and appeal to certain demographics should not substitute for electability. Are we willing to undergo four or eight more years similar to these past eight years. Superdelegates please keep that in mind.

    May 1, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  4. Anonymous

    I would like to see them settle it all with a bowling tournament.

    May 1, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  5. Larry from Georgetown, Tx

    Wow, it seems that people are trying to divide the democratic party before Hillary does it in Denver. So why not divide us even more than the Congress is today. The statement united we stand means nothing anymore to people other than just words, but it is true. Hillary needs to go back to Bosnia, or white water, or wherever she would do less harm.

    May 1, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  6. John

    Listen people Obama is the next kennedy we know this the whole world is excited and waiting to meet him to work with him .
    He didnt try mislead us with gas tax joke like the crooks
    He is the one open the eyes of your hearts

    May 1, 2008 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  7. Nando, Florida

    Wolf can you just please get Dressed and stop letting Hillary slap you on your @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ YOU LITTLE MARK.

    May 1, 2008 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  8. Anonymous

    I am a loyal watchner of CNN. and I am not a Democret, but day after day you come on and beat the drums for Hillary Clinton, You come accross as more a campaign manager for her, than the respected CNN figure that you have become


    A concernen Independent

    May 1, 2008 06:35 pm at 6:35 pm |
  9. Kim

    Yes Yes Wolfie. It is the swing states. The popular vote with the illegal Fl and Michigan votes added in. It is the Super delagates. It is anything the racist Clinton supporters and the biased media can dream up to steal the nomination from the Black candidate. I am so so very ashamed that I am a Democrat. I never could have seen this day coming.

    May 1, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  10. curveball

    The big states argument is almost childishly insulting. Once the nominee is chosen, the polls will change again. And again. And again.

    May 1, 2008 06:42 pm at 6:42 pm |
  11. THE TRUTH !!!!

    Obama Is going on The Late Show trying to Distract Us From Asking Questions About The Rev.Wright Scam , He And His Campaign Have Cooked Up To Fool Us . They Want Voters To Talk About These "Non Issue" Things To Let Their Rev.Wright Scam Stay Under The Radar

    A Lot Of People Are Saying The Same Thing !!!

    They're Saying Obama and His Campaign , Along With Obama Media Pundits Planned The Wright Speaking tour So Obama Could Publicly Disown Him To get The Wright Thing Behind him . Wright Is A part of The Staged Event . It's All Smoke And Mirrors , Designed To Fool Us .

    I Don't Trust Obama At All !!!!!!

    Hillary 08 . Or McCain 08″

    May 1, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  12. phillykat

    There is no human, no group, no sound byte, no video, no anything that can convince me that John McCain is even a viable candidate.


    May 1, 2008 06:44 pm at 6:44 pm |
  13. v.ananthan

    I am a Hillary supporter and if she can win the popular vote by winning all the remainning states, then there is no point in nominating Obama as the democratic candidate...

    Hiallry Clinton: leader with solutions, treat every american with dignity and respect and to unite the country.

    -Hillary 08.

    May 1, 2008 06:45 pm at 6:45 pm |
  14. Griff

    Obama's Supporter's??? Wishful Thinkier's, Dancing Round the May Pole... Not Opinnion Poll...

    May 1, 2008 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  15. Grant

    Here's a challenge for Wolf, why don't run a real life political story and hold a discussion on the gas tax, with ALL sides allowed to share their viewpoints....I am sure Mayor Bloomberg would welcome the invite. This is an actual "Up to the Moment" topic.....

    This way you can actually hold a forum on an actual topics, not hypothetical drivel

    I bet you will, and schedule it for next Wednesday....

    This would interest me as a CNN viewer

    May 1, 2008 06:53 pm at 6:53 pm |
  16. Jim T

    these swing states are still goin to vote for obama, they dont want another republican as president. dont see why the 'more electable' issue is so important

    May 1, 2008 06:53 pm at 6:53 pm |
  17. Tony, Enterprise, Alabama


    If you calculate all of Obama's wins, he did it in Republican states by caucus; this DOES NOT mean that state will realign itself as Democratic in the general election at all. In fact, it means he wins states in the primaries he has no hope of winning in the fall.

    It will take states like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, California, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, Pennsylvania...etc. to win in the fall. And with Obama's Uber-Liberal credentials the only thing he can win in the fall is a place alongside McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry...another loser Liberal for the Democrats.

    Wake up America! We cannot afford another Republican, and we cannot survive a bleeding heart Liberal!

    May 1, 2008 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  18. rusty

    Hillary's legal troubles, the whole MESS of them, should be a factor. Her obvious dishonesty should be a factor. Her bankrupt campaign should be a factor. What is wrong with you guys?? Face it, the people who sign your paychecks are a HUGE factor in this. The coverage of this campaign crossed the line a long time ago. Shame on you!!

    May 1, 2008 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  19. Neutral

    Obama is a follower of BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY wolf........MARXISM!

    May 1, 2008 06:56 pm at 6:56 pm |
  20. nemo, berkeley, CA

    I think people need to realize that these poll numbers reflect a campaign in which Barack Obama is being attacked by both Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Of course his poll numbers are going to dip, it's 2 vs. 1. In a one on one match up, Obama will soundly defeat McCain. Hillary will definitely lose. The Republicans will unite against Hillary and the Independents will flock towards McCain.

    May 1, 2008 06:56 pm at 6:56 pm |
  21. Evie

    Obama supporters seem to be in extreme denial - including Jack Cafferty and Jeffrey Toobin. Of course, super delegates will need to look at electability against John McCain and the polls don't look very good for Obama vs. McCain in Ohio, PA or FL right now. They would be foolish to discount what the polls are saying now and in the weeks ahead in what will be a critical decision for the Dems. So, Toobin who counters that these polls don't matter now - that they may be different in October is in serious denial. I expect emotional nonsense from Cafferty but expect more critical analysis from Toobin. Could it be that these men are seriously threatened by a strong woman such as Hillary?

    May 1, 2008 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  22. chad

    If Hillary wins Nadar will get a large majority of Barracks vote and ground campaign, here in Colorado we are already getting organized just in case

    May 1, 2008 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  23. Janet from NH

    Why isn't anyone talking about Hillary Clinton and her remarks about nuking Iran? The woman is a loose cannon. She would be a scarier President than George Bush. The media needs to focus on some of the Clinton issues so the NC and IN voters can make an educated decision on who to vote for. When you only focus on negative Obama stories you have ahuge influence on people. Please educate people in a fair and balanced manner.

    May 1, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  24. Lee

    Your Panel suggests current Polls showing Hillary with a winning edge in Key States does not mean anything? The CNN Poll shows Obama has lost 6 points Nationwide or 10% of his support since March with the trend still heading down for Obama? All the Mo for the year of 2008 favors Hillary!

    With all the Primary votes are counted to date Hillary has a very small lead. Throw Michigan out and she still is very close. Overall Obama may have a 1% lead from th early primaries of last year. But based on your Panel's reasoning today maybe last years votes should be thrown out since they should not mean anything because it will all change by November.

    Neither Obama or Hillary is near having a majority of votes from Democratics with 4% going to others? Does that mean they should start this all over since it will change by November?

    Give Hillary Credit she has stopped Obama in his tracks in fact he is losing ground. Hillary has all the Mo from 2008.

    Hillary was down 25 points two weeks ago in North Carolina now she trials by 8 points with 9 points undecided! A blind man could see the change, "you don't need a Weatherman to know which way the wind blows!" Hillary will win this going away so call it the greying of America if you want but Obama with his one year's experience in the US Senate before running for Preident is not ready!

    May 1, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  25. Jasen

    I have voted Democratic at every election since I could first vote (1992), but I can say 100% that if it is between John McCain and Barack Obama – I do not know who I will vote for in the election. Unlike Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry whom I felt I could trust as much as one can trust a politician; there is something about Barack Obama I can't put my finger on, but that causes me to not trust him whatsoever. I am hopeful the DNC will consider the voters in MI and FL when it comes to recognizing the popular vote and that the super delegates make the right decision and help nominate Hillary Clinton; otherwise I am not sure who I will vote for – if I decide to vote at all. 🙁

    May 1, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
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