May 1st, 2008
02:27 PM ET
14 years ago

Blitzer: Should Clinton's swing state edge be a factor?

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption=" Blitzer: Could new polls sway some superdelegates?"] WASHINGTON (CNN) - There are new polls suggesting Hillary Clinton might fare better against John McCain in three key Electoral College battleground states in November than Barack Obama. These are states the two parties will be fighting over desperately in the general election – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The polls are snapshots and are certainly not conclusive evidence that she would in fact be a more formidable candidate against McCain in those states than Obama. A lot, of course, can change between now and November. But the polls are significant because they could influence those still-undecided superdelegates – and perhaps even some decided superdelegates who can change their minds.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton is currently ahead of McCain in Florida, 49 percent to 41 percent. In the same poll, McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 44 percent to 43 percent.

In Ohio, the poll shows Clinton ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 38 percent. McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 43 percent to 42 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead of McCain, 51 percent to 37 percent. Obama is also ahead of McCain in this state, but by a slightly smaller margin - 47 percent to 38 percent.

As you know, Clinton defeated Obama by about ten points in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Florida, there was no campaigning because the state had moved up its primary against Democratic Party rules. But all the candidates’ names were on the ballots, and Clinton won decisively.

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will see a lot of campaigning in the months ahead. McCain is already spending lots of time there – as he should if he wants to be president. So should these latest polls be a serious factor in the minds of superdelegates?

Filed under: Wolf Blitzer
soundoff (325 Responses)
  1. nkemtaji 4 obama

    This is no point for Hillary.She has lost the battle already.Despite Wrights comments,more and more superdelegates are moving towards Obama.

    May 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  2. Cindy,CA

    I'm beginning to wonder if Polosi and Dean really want to win in November. Seems like they are pushing for Obama to win the nomination when it is starting to be clear how he will lose against McCain.

    Those of us who are supporting Hillary have done the research (at least I have) on both candidates and have discovered some disturbing trends with Obama. He isn't uniting us as he claims but is in fact a divider. Go figure....

    May 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  3. Gail

    Of course it should.

    May 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  4. Barbara

    I am so sick of the news not reporting the news .I hope when this election is over we can ban together and change the way we are spoon fed the news.Wolf you are transparent in your reporting.

    May 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  5. @americans

    A resounding: NO!

    Let the man with the most pledged delegates at the end of the day gets the democratic nomination!!!

    May 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  6. Jorga

    The superdelegates should look at th polls, but they should not be the determining factor of how they vote. All you have to do is look at the graphs of the national polls on Real Clear Politics to see how often they fluctuate. Obama has dropped a little because of the latest Rev. Wright controversy, but I am confident he will regain his momentum. Not only must superdelegates look at the candidate's electibility, they should more importantly decide who will be the best president. Once we have a candidate, the democrats will win the election!

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  7. Kidy

    Mr Blitzer,Please stop being one sided you are ruining your repetation
    You tend to exaggerate THE Clintons slight gain and undermine Obamas huge gain. I USED TO WATCH YOUR SHOW . I have packed and left you . Hope you will come to your senses and be fair one day.
    waiting to rejoin your show.

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  8. Bob

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! It is nonsense to believe that for 16 months she's been down in all of these states and Obama was winning Independents, and then because you foolish Corporate Media clowns are absolutely obsessed with Rev. Wright that somehow this will carry over to November and voters will forget that John McCain is a geezer who's wrong on each and every issue that matters in their lives. The war, the economy, health care, etc. Hillary is fighting to the death because a 68 year old woman would have no shot of being elected and she can not wait for a superbly successful Obama presidency for her shot. Stop aiding and abetting her suicide attack on the Democratic Party. We all know you and your colleagues, Wolf are Repubs in hiding

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  9. Emit


    Most Delegates, Most States, Most Popular Votes, ............

    Polls are not to be trusted. I have written many polls and you can construct them to get the answers you want. Media manipulation is an ongoing problem this year just to get their ratings up.

    There are no "swing state" edge. Both Candidates have taken more popular votes in the swing states that past demoncrates have gotten. Either will do fine against John McSame.

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  10. Ms. GA

    I don't think that matters now. You have 2 candidates in a heated campaign... Of course there #s are not going to be as favorable. Clinton supporters are saying they won’t vote for Obama and his supporters are saying they won’t vote for her. This is a campaign! The supporters don't want the other camp to look good now at all so yes a lot of people are saying they will not vote for the other candidate. I don't like Clinton’s ways right now so if I were asked if I would vote for her i would say no now. But come election time, I know I don't want 8 more years of Bush and so I will vote for her. If people truly care about the issues, they will put the petty things aside and vote on who better represents their beliefs.

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  11. Gabe in TX

    Well for every journalist that favors Clinton there are 20 who not only favor Obama but insult Clinton. I think it's a fair unbalanced system. By the way Wolf, did you catch "Boston Legal" last nite? First Nancy Grace and now you! I hope CNN is making some money off of this hit show that parodies them. LOL

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  12. Lee WV

    If this is Hillary's only arguement then she is in trouble.To start with I don't think that just because 10% or less of voters liked Hillary better in the primaries that Obama cannot take the45 % that he got and build on that.I don't think that any democrat with a son or daughter in Iraq is going to vote for McCain out of spite because Obama is the nominee.Also she will lose thses ststes without the support of the Aferican American vote if they feel it was taken away from him.

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  13. OlvrWhit

    Of course it should. The goal of democrats is to win the White House, not stroke Obama and his supporters ego's.

    Hillary's performance in these must win states makes her the logical choice. People need to remember that a majority of Obama's lead come from caucus states and republican strong holds like South Carolina and Georgia.

    Hillary can win the states we need. The super delegates need to look at who can win.

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  14. David, Kentucky

    Wolf, why don't you just quit CNN and work your other job as Clinton's campaign manager full time.

    May 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  15. vern anaheim,ca

    i don't think so,just because hillary won those big states who's to say they wouldn't vote for obama over mccain

    May 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  16. jean

    Yes . I hope they are paying attention . I think Hillary is still treated bad by the media and Jack Cafferty. You can tell he is such a Hillary hater or is it just a women hater period. I am very concerned about the Rev. Wrights comments. he kept saying over and over 'There is a change coming" What does he mean about that? It really scares me. I thnk Hillary is the best one against Mcain. I can't believe I heard again that some people still want her to get out. So what Obama got a Clinton oldy today. Who is He anyway, I have never heard of him... Jack didn't mention that Hillary picked up 2 more superdelegates today too. I am from Ohio and I will continue to support her...She is a fighter.

    May 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  17. anon


    Since the media is refusing to reveal/report the Paul vs Clinton fraud case in court right now, we need to create our own movement and flood every blog on CNN and every blogging website on the World Wide Web with information from the case regardless of what the topic is. For those that don't know – Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!!


    May 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  18. sarikopek

    This poll singles out three battleground states. Obama consistently outperforms Clinton in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Virgina, among others. These states are also battleground states, and their total electoral college votes are actually more significant.

    May 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  19. Lisa G., Pennsylvania

    No. The swing state edge is a myth. Clinton's 9.2% win in Pennsylvania was largely due to Gov. Ed Rendell and the statewide democratic political machine that lined up behind him. Rendell has already said he will throw his support behind Obama should he become the nominee, and he will. The increasing number of superdelegates, like Joe Andrew who switched from Clinton to Obama today, are a better barometer of which way the wind's blowing.

    The democratic nominee will have no problem defeating McCain in November.

    May 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  20. S she wins one and it should be considered? How about the amount of wins and support Obama has, should it be considered? I am not thrilled with the electorial college to begin with but if this comes down to the superdelegates...I sincerely think it should be the popular vote. Hiliary needs to act like a lady and step down...but apparently that's another thing she doesn't do well.

    May 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  21. Fishers, Indiana

    Barack Hussein Obama will never be elected President of the USA.

    Enough said.

    Hillary Clinton '08 & '12

    May 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  22. Tracy

    Valparaiso. ABC is covering it. Why aren't you.

    May 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  23. charles

    Wolf wats up with you. go and be her running mate. you seem to be doing a good job with yr pal Lou. try again wolf the superdelegates are watching you. you are not doing her any favours. you are making it worse.Wat exactly are you gona say Wolf if Obama wins. Heart attack maybe. i hope not coz you are possesed with MRS LIES. lm wondering wats yr motive. you dont sound like a journalist but a politician.

    May 1, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  24. Ric

    It should make her case, but it wont. Not this time. The Dems are beholden to the black vote. They HAVE to give it to Obama. Clinton certainly makes her case, and any other time she would have gotten the nomination. Especially if it were Edwards or Kerry, But this time she's up against Obama; someone with 92% of all black support. Thats HUGE. To not give it to him, sends a bad message. Unfortunately it also means sending a lamb to the slaughter. But, in the least, this attempt will increase Democratic control of the Congress AND the Senate. Mc Cain wont be as hard to work with as Bush. Most Dems can live with that for another 4 years while they are argue about what went wrong.

    May 1, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  25. Donovan

    Only HC can reach between these two partys and pull a winning
    political Coalition together. McCain was down and out and came out of nowhere to win (althought its not official) his party's nomination. McCain will be a real Force in the General....

    If Obama gets the nomination, its over for the Democrats....he is not
    going to win those swing states.

    If HC gets the election, its going to be a knock down drag out
    fight to the finish! its going to be very exciting to witness.


    May 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
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