May 1st, 2008
02:27 PM ET
14 years ago

Blitzer: Should Clinton's swing state edge be a factor?

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption=" Blitzer: Could new polls sway some superdelegates?"] WASHINGTON (CNN) - There are new polls suggesting Hillary Clinton might fare better against John McCain in three key Electoral College battleground states in November than Barack Obama. These are states the two parties will be fighting over desperately in the general election – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The polls are snapshots and are certainly not conclusive evidence that she would in fact be a more formidable candidate against McCain in those states than Obama. A lot, of course, can change between now and November. But the polls are significant because they could influence those still-undecided superdelegates – and perhaps even some decided superdelegates who can change their minds.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton is currently ahead of McCain in Florida, 49 percent to 41 percent. In the same poll, McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 44 percent to 43 percent.

In Ohio, the poll shows Clinton ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 38 percent. McCain is statistically tied with Obama, 43 percent to 42 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead of McCain, 51 percent to 37 percent. Obama is also ahead of McCain in this state, but by a slightly smaller margin - 47 percent to 38 percent.

As you know, Clinton defeated Obama by about ten points in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Florida, there was no campaigning because the state had moved up its primary against Democratic Party rules. But all the candidates’ names were on the ballots, and Clinton won decisively.

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will see a lot of campaigning in the months ahead. McCain is already spending lots of time there – as he should if he wants to be president. So should these latest polls be a serious factor in the minds of superdelegates?

Filed under: Wolf Blitzer
soundoff (325 Responses)
  1. Karen

    A main problem with Obama campaign is his inability to articulate or tailor his policy to meet needs of white, low-mid income voters. The problem shows most clearly in Ohio and Penn. Thess voters are not Clinton backers; they just do not see how Obama can help them personally.

    However, the problem is fixable because Obama has a big heart for these voters and his VP, if chose wisely, can pick up this group. The bottom line is that he'll win.

    Clinton's problem is not fixable because she has lost the hgih moral ground and leadership including trust in general voters.

    May 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  2. Darth Vadik, CA

    No, we will win those states anyway, however only Obama can win the usually red states.

    May 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  3. enomisa

    Yes- if the democrats want to win in Nov.

    No- if they want to continue to feel good about bashing the woman and fixing it so Obama will win.

    May 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  4. Christiana from NY

    No. It shouldn't be a factor. Most democratic states vote for a democrat during the national election. HRC campaign will use every imaginable argument to hijack this election. That's called bullying. You don't bully people in to following you. You lead the way and others will follow. That's what Obama has demonstrated in his cmpaign. He may have stumbled along the way but that's called being human. If we need a perfect president we might as well vote for an infant. Even an infant has an uncle he will rather keep home than be seen in the public with him.

    May 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  5. honkey white guy from cali

    Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this! Go Obama 08 Yes WeCan!!!!

    May 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  6. Say no to snObama!

    If snObama is on the ticket come November I will vote for John McCain.

    May 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  7. American expat

    The swing state math doesn't matter- it is only representing three states at this point. The democrats have a front-runner and it is obviously clear who the nominee will be, but HRC refuses to believe that the writing is on the wall-she will do anything to win. Despite the fact that Obama's former pastor made disparaging comments, Barack Obama will over come this and his poll numbers will increase. Also, once the democrats have definately selected the candidate then everyone will get behind and support that candidate- then reexamine the numbers. Clinton can't really win unless she steals the election!

    May 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  8. shawn

    Blitzer, why don't you talk to one of your team members and have them explain to you what the term "swing state "means and how relevent these polls you're discussing are now. Better yet, if you want to be provocative, become a game show host instead of trying to stir up controversy that doesn't exist.

    May 1, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  9. Jake

    Absolutely, it should. Democrats are falling out of love with Obama.
    He's all talk and no substance. Did anyone notice that not a single one of
    his high-powered, high-profile supporters stood with him in the Wright
    affair in the past couple of days? Not a single one. So much for standing by
    their wonderful candidate.

    May 1, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  10. Barbara

    Mr. Andrews' endorsement of Obama was significant . I really want to see change for today and the future, not the return of George Bush to a 3rd term or having Mr. & Mrs. Carpetbagger back in the White House.

    We, the people, want representation that will address our concerns and provide a government that works for us.

    Sign me: Grandmother in Trenton

    May 1, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  11. Jayson

    If the popular vote should be the determining factor on where super delegates go then what is the point of having them? You have to love when the Democrats come up with a system and then start whining about the possibility of the the system working the way it was meant to. Superdelegates were meant to try to pick a winner for the presidential election, not to pick a winner of a popularity contest.

    May 1, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  12. Jazzy

    Why has no one questioned whether or not McCain is possibly suffering from PTSD. He was a Vietnam Prisoner of War. Was he tortured? I think we should know the answer to this question since he does have a problem with controlling his temper

    May 1, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  13. Diing

    Obama will carry red states such as VA, CO, KS, NM, NC plus more; therefore, he does not need to win in PA or OH!. Do the math and take my word right to the bank!. I am dead serious!

    May 1, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  14. Paul vs. Clinton

    Please google Peter Paul vs. Clinton.
    CNN, please explain. Or at least explain why you won't explain.

    May 1, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  15. LT for Obama

    What I would like to know is why no one talks about HER former pastor who was convicted of child molestation. What does she have to say about him? I want to see more about this story.

    May 1, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  16. just me

    Wait and see...

    Americans don't like fixed elections.

    This has been advantage Obama all the way.

    I'm amazed the lady is still standing. I pray for her in such a toxically biased atmosphere.

    May 1, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  17. Bayou Joe

    Wolf.... You know better...Clinton will not get the nomination. The supers will give it to Obama. They will not upset the left wing socialists. They would rather lose with Obama and keep the radicals, than give it to someone that has an actual chance of winning in November.

    You heard it here first.

    Obama will lose to McCain in November. My Hispanic brothers and sisters will make sure of that. Hispanics are now the largest minority and growing. We love our country, support it in good times and bad and most of us whose families are rooted in the Southwest are Republicans and Independents. How do you like those marbles.

    May 1, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  18. Jimmy O

    Please vote the Clintons for a third term, they deserve it. It is their birth right. We have to be ruled by the Clintons and the Bushes forever. That is our destiny. We do not deserve better.

    Though we impeached Bill Clinton for lying under oath, we need to reward him by returning him and his wife to the White House. Though the Clintons pardoned FALN terrorists for political advantage, and felons for cash, it does not matter.

    Though the Clintons have not released the names of the contributors to the Clinton Library Fund, it doesn't matter. Though Clintons are known for their dishonesty and lack of integrity – who cares about integrity these days.

    Hillary 08, all the way.

    Posting by the Bushes and Clintons Presidency Forever Network

    May 1, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  19. Emmaddy

    Lisa G.-Hillary's win in PA was officially updated this week to 9.6 and was not only due to Rendell or how can you explain that he was once the very popular mayor in Philadelphia and the city still went overwhelmingly for Obama. And, even though Mike Nutter, an AA is the current mayor who endorsed Hillary, Obama carried the city with ease. Also, How do you explain the ineffectiveness of Dem. Bob Casey ? He's from a well-connected PA political dynasty who went out of his way to endorse and stump for Obama.
    Also Ohio went for Bush in the last election, so don't minimize their importance to the dems or take them for granted.

    May 1, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  20. Debbie

    No matter how hard CNN and the media try to push Hillary the counts, not polls tell the real story. Obama is still ahead in delegates, popular votes and most states won. These are what count. And if Ohio, PA, and Florida are the only states that count, why waste our time with voting. The news media was hoping that the Wright story would knock Obama out of the race, Hillary has tried so hard even at the point of lying and causing division, but after Tues. election he will still be standing. Why can't Hillary and the news media close the deal.

    May 1, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  21. One voter

    I am one voter...

    Nothing against Obama... but I like fair play.

    Bashing a good candidate- just because she is a woman?... intelligent?...capable?... a Clinton?- fill in your own sill bias, won't work with me.

    My one vote ( If the DNC doesn't toss it) will be for Hillary Clinton.

    May 1, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  22. TOP

    Why wud u expect people to comment on non conclusive poll?? I find this kind of reporting one sided!!

    May 1, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  23. Judi Smith

    I think Hillary's idea about the tax cut on gas for the summer is an excellant idea! It will help everyone especially the truckers if they get to paid less for gas then groceries and everything will go down. Obama is so wrong about this and he is just showing how INEXPERIENCED he realy is.

    May 1, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  24. Barack the Vote in RI

    These polls are garbarge....the superdelegates are still going to support Obama. CNN and the media should stop contributing to the delsusion that Hillary still has a chance when statistically it's over and the superdelegates know it. Let this woman bow out and stop fanning the flames CNN. Are you guys that desperate for ratings? Obama is way ahead in number of states, pledged (and soon to be super) delegates as well as the popular the real math.....not Hillary's version.

    May 1, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  25. gary


    May 1, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
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