May 1st, 2008
06:52 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll of polls: Obama losing ground

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption=" Obama now leads Clinton by 1 point nationally."]

(CNN) - The Democratic presidential race is tightening nationally, according to a new CNN average of several recent polls.

Obama's lead is now down to 1 point over Clinton nationwide, 45 percent to 44 percent, in CNN's "poll of polls." That margin is down 3 points from another CNN poll of polls conducted two days ago. In that analysis, Obama led Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin is also considerably lower than an April 18 poll of polls that showed Obama with an 11 point lead.

The poll of polls consists of three newly released national polls from Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, and Newsweek. There is no margin of error on the poll of polls.

Both the Fox News poll and the Gallup poll were conducted partially after Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, made a fresh round of controversial comments earlier this week.

The Fox News poll also appears to show Obama no longer has an edge over Clinton among independent voters. In head-to-head match ups, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain wins independents by a 4 point margin over Clinton (42-38 percent) and by a 10 points over Obama (47 percent to 37 percent).

Filed under: Poll of polls
soundoff (1,279 Responses)
  1. Bob J.

    If Clinton wants to nail Obama, she only needs to do one thing:

    Take some polls of voters in the early states Obama won (e.g. Iowa and Wisconsin) and see how they would vote today.

    If they would not vote for Obama, then it's clear he only has the delegate lead because MONTHS ago, people who didn't know anything about him voted for him and the others split between Hillary and Edwards.

    If she can show that he would lose Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. today, the argument that he has earned the most delegates and popular vote lead would not hold, and this nightmare would be over.

    He only has the lead because he snuck around early on.

    Carville – take some polls asap!!!!!!

    April 30, 2008 10:01 pm at 10:01 pm |
  2. jen

    I Just gave more money to Obama. Clinton pay your bills will ya you bust- out dont you know times are tough ?

    April 30, 2008 10:02 pm at 10:02 pm |
  3. Tim

    Clinton supporters understand reality....

    (Yes, a large portion of Hillary's supporters may be older. That's good. They understand life and all the hard work that goes along with just making it to 60, 70, 80, and beyond. And they understand commitment. Unlike Obama's "youngsters," who know diddly about life, whose parents worked hard to send them to college, who spend half their time on YouTube, "reality shows" ("reality" – — really?) or cell phones while weaving across traffic lanes endangering others. REAL reality is setting in about Obama — and it is fueled by those you Obama "junkies" call "old ladies" or "old geezers, ")

    I don't think so! Old people vote for her because Obama wants to bring people together and not divide. Most old people want to keep it like it was 40-60 years ago.... divisive and one against another.

    Why does Obama attract the educated? Because his supporters actually do their homework instead of voting for a name, like Clinton! I believe that the 60-80 year old people back then voted for a president names Kennedy (JFK) and all the old people back then said the same thing.

    Get over yourself, Clinton supporters!

    April 30, 2008 10:02 pm at 10:02 pm |
  4. John Macenro

    Obama must win to save Mccain and four more years of war is acomming.

    April 30, 2008 10:02 pm at 10:02 pm |
  5. Oh well

    He already won.

    April 30, 2008 10:02 pm at 10:02 pm |
  6. politicsIsdirty

    More seniors favor Sen Clinton over Sen Obama.+++ That is what you call WISDOM. +++++They have had a crush or fell in love with the sweet talking athlete of their group who ended up with no accomplishment.++++ They saw experience as far more important in life. ++++They know that solutions are better that rhetorics.++++ They know that you don't change something if it is not broken.++++++.... been there, done that.+++++++++ Hope the rest wise up as well.+++++++ Let us pray to God that the people of IN and NC will be enlightened on Tuesday.

    April 30, 2008 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm |
  7. Southerner

    Obama is over. Wright has killed his campaign, with much help from Obama himself.

    Obama has denounced Wright after saying he could no easier denounce Wright than he could the black community (or his grandmother). By denouncing Wright, he's denounced the black community as well. The 90%+ he's been getting is not going to happen again.

    The problem is, he waited so long to do it, he's not going to get the white vote back by doing it. At this point it looks like (and is) just a political move that isn't heartfelt. People don't believe he means it, so he won't win back votes. In the meantime, some African-Americans feel betrayed by his denouncement of Wright.

    At least his inexperience is only costing him an election, rather than costing the country when he chokes while trying to lead.

    April 30, 2008 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm |
  8. Joyce

    Why is it that Sen. Obama has to answer for what Rev. Wright said - I think people are being unfair to him. "Freedom of Speech" Rev Wright can say whatever he wants. I go to church and I don't always agree with what the pastor says, Does that mean I should leave the church? Who am I going church for the pastor or to worship. Pastors, Rev., etc. are all humans only one that is perfect and THAT IS GOD. Now look at this why when Hillary lied several times, why no one is talking about that. YOU CAN'T TRUST HER. She (herself) lied no one did it. Why is not the media on her case?. We have a just and righteous God and He will see Obama through. I know He will.

    April 30, 2008 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm |
  9. Georgie

    Hillary has the best solutions for America & can get right on implimenting as soon as she gets elected. If we the people vote Hillary in, everyone in America will win as she is working for all people & for this country. Bush has devestated America in less than 8 years, I was far better off, & so was this country during Bill Clintons years. I think Hillary will be the Best President we will have ever had. Lets give her the chance, she won't make things worse & we can trust & count on her.

    April 30, 2008 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm |
  10. Tom

    Rev. Jeremiah Wright clearly has his own agenda in regards to Sen Obama and it appears Sen Obama is having a difficult time With Rev Wright in reaching a understanding as the country moves closer to an election. What I find discouraging is If Sen. Obama can not bring his own minister to terms, what makes me believe he will be more effective in international politics. I believe we would be dealing with other countries with a handicap. Sen Obama appears to be waffling in this matter when a decision needs to be made.

    April 30, 2008 10:04 pm at 10:04 pm |
  11. Fed Up in Texas

    Obamabots are so stupid......polls mean nothing when Hillary is winning but they mean everything as long as Obama is leading. Isn't that they way you think? You're all such losers. Hillary should and will win. Obama is a lost cause. Too many skeletons fell out of his closet all at once.

    One more thing, Obamabots are saying he is leading in popular vote. That is NOT true. When you count Florida and Michigan, Hillary is winning. The people of those states may have gotten screwed over in the primary but they will certainly have their voices heard come November. Hillary will beat McCain. I, for one, will vote Republican if Obama is the nominee.

    April 30, 2008 10:04 pm at 10:04 pm |
  12. kaz

    What matters polls or deligate count. Obama is winning both pledge and supper deligates.

    April 30, 2008 10:04 pm at 10:04 pm |
  13. Eboni H.

    I say who cares what the polls say!!!! I am an individual and I am not going to jump on the political bandwagon and allow some imaginary poll results, or Reverend Wright to sway me. Reverend Wright is his own person and many of us have had dear lifelong friends turn into something or profess some beliefs that we do not share. I am a Black woman and I am a member of a Black church, there are many points that Reverend Wright made that I agree with and many that I thought to be outlandish and very far fetched. However, he is not the candidate. Obama is and that is who we need to pay attention to. I believe that Obama is the breath of fresh air that America needs. Our economic standing is in the toilet and we need a change.
    I am a teacher, single, have no children and my city (San Diego) is undergoing major budget cuts in education and my career is in jeopardy on top of the rising gas, groceries, rent prices, student loans and let me put it plain and simple...Who cares what Reverend Wright said...I need some HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!! and I want to see what Obama can do.

    April 30, 2008 10:05 pm at 10:05 pm |
  14. Dave

    Um... did I miss something?

    The only reason that a "national poll of polls" for the Democratic race could possibly be relevant would be if there was some sort of "national democratic primary" coming up. All but a very few primaries (and caucuses) have been held, and delegates have pledged based on those primaries and caucuses. Did Hillary get the rules changed and arrange a national do-over? If not, WHY IS THIS NEWS?

    This is yet another example of the media not letting the facts get in the way of a good story.

    April 30, 2008 10:05 pm at 10:05 pm |
  15. Nora, FLORIDA

    I don't care what the polls say. What do the people say?????

    April 30, 2008 10:05 pm at 10:05 pm |
  16. North Carolina

    Women's Voices Women's Votes is a public service organization that promotes voting for unmarried women, (who are the largest increasing segment of the US demographic,) and runs voter registration and turnout programs. There is nothing illicit in encouraging women to vote! Women have had the right to vote since the 19th amendment, 50 years after black men got the right to vote. Do you also think black men shouldn't vote or have voter registration drives? Or is it just women? CNN how can you print this garbage and "moderate" all my comments!!!!!!!!! BTW, why don't you moderate those "comments" about Clinton's pastor? It's a pastor from Clinton, NY NOT Clinton's pastor. And you call yourselves journalists. On a cold day.

    April 30, 2008 10:06 pm at 10:06 pm |
  17. JFK

    Joseph, she does not need the majority of pledged delegates to win. Had we started with all or nothing delegate system for each state(like Republicans do), she would have won this contest already. But the Super Delegates get to decide. Those are the rules and she has more. Thats right, count em.

    And Shirley, really, are you serious? What kind of posting is that? Thats the most unprofessional and plain pathetic posting.

    Bob, she does not need to drop out. HELLO! Have you been watching this or not?

    April 30, 2008 10:06 pm at 10:06 pm |
  18. karen

    Will someone please answer just one question.If Obama has been in this one church for over 20 years,and with such a close relationship with Reverend Wright how can he say he has never heard this hate talk,and his negative views before.Did he wear ear phones and blind folds every sermon? I have thought on this,and i know that when you disagree with what your minister is preaching and it is not agreeable to your ears,or your childrens ears.You find another church that does.So in my view Mr Obama did and really still does hold some of Mr Wrights views.Which I find I cannot support.You just don't stay with a church for 20 years and not hold most of the same views,and just now come out and say you never knew.

    April 30, 2008 10:06 pm at 10:06 pm |
  19. Dave W.

    As a Canadian, I could not beleive how stupid Americans were to elect George Bush twice. I actually thought that maybe he had doped your water or something.
    Then I thought that after eifght years they must realize what they did wrong and will correct it. I was wrong. I now see that you have been hypnotized by the wicked, evil, lieing witch of New York, hillary Clinton. The rest of the world is laughing at you, because you have someone that can restore your country to what it should be, great.

    I guess Americans are still stupid.

    April 30, 2008 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  20. gary


    April 30, 2008 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  21. Zack


    April 30, 2008 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  22. Debate the issues, people, not the "non issues".

    Including: Wright, and Hillary dodging bullets. What the heck does that have to do with the American political agenda? It is nothing but verbal indigestion in the american political palate, and we are all out of Maalox.

    I *thought* this was a campaign about the pressing issues of our future, not some sleazy, ultra chic, political version of US Weekly.

    But who I am most disappointed in is Hilary Clinton. Mean spirited, hedonistically power hungry, stop at nothing political machines. Hillary has proven herself to be what she reviles. She showed her true character. When she had a chance she didn't even bother showing her opponent the same kind of respect she lamented she didn't get from the Republicans. Maybe they were right about the Clintons all this time...

    April 30, 2008 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  23. bond

    Obama will capture this campaign and make it the defining moment for the future generations of America. He will bring world peace.

    April 30, 2008 10:08 pm at 10:08 pm |
  24. Mountainview

    All the Pundits talking about Obama vs McCain and HRC vs. McCain is insane! That will change in favor of the Democrat. What you are currently seeing is gaming.. big time. This is probably more so ffrom HRC side since she has really no legitimate or just chance of winning the nomination. So many of her supporters will say they willll vote for McCain against Obama to show that Hillary is more winnable!. But when he gets nominated, after 2 or so months most would rather not have 4 more years of Bush policies continued!

    April 30, 2008 10:08 pm at 10:08 pm |
  25. Peter in Canada

    Hillary is done...plain and simple. Her chance of being the Democratic nominee is about 1%. Her chance of being president is 0%.

    April 30, 2008 10:09 pm at 10:09 pm |
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