May 14th, 2008
05:35 PM ET
14 years ago

Clinton campaign: We're ahead in the popular vote

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption="Is Clinton ahead in the popular vote?"](CNN) - Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said Wednesday Hillary Clinton has overcome Barack Obama in the total popular vote.

“Senator Clinton took the lead in the popular vote last night because voters believe she is the candidate best able to beat John McCain and lead our country," McAuliffe said.

Is he right? That depends on which measure of the popular vote is used.

Four different scenarios of the total popular vote have been kicked around: (1) only counting primary contests without factoring in Florida and Michigan, whose contests were not sanctioned by the national party, (2) counting primary and caucus contests without Florida and Michigan, (3) counting primaries and contests and Florida but not Michigan, and (4) counting all primaries and caucuses including Florida and Michigan.

Clinton trails in all four counts, but by significantly different margins. In the first scenario she trails by by about 397,000, in the second she's behind 699,000, in the third she has a 405,000 vote deficit, and in the fourth scenario she trails by 77,000 votes.

The fourth scenario does not give Obama any votes out of Michigan, where he did not appear on the ballot.

The only scenario in which Clinton would appear to have the lead is a fifth scenario that only counts primary states – including both Florida and Michigan – and excludes any votes cast in the party’s caucuses. In that count, Clinton currently holds a lead of about 225,000 votes.

soundoff (259 Responses)
  1. Sharon

    Edwards couldn't win with the other liberal elitist.......could he?
    Seeing that his voters went to Clinton.....what exactly is he trying to accomplish.......????

    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  2. giovanni

    i strongly believe that Mc Cain will win if Obama is the nominee i garantee is..... hispanics will go to Mc Cain and many of the votes hillary is getting will go to Mc Cain.i am hispanic and will be voting for Mc Cain is Hillary is not on the ballot. No matter of Edwards endorsment to Obama.

    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  3. Henry Haider

    Nick In Las Vegas, are you drunk or high in drugs? Which planet do you live in? Hillary supporters needs to get their heads examined.

    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  4. tblno


    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  5. Voter

    LOL Billary is a JOKE, maybe now Wolf Blitzer can stop sucking up to Billary and get that stuff of his nose!

    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  6. Michael

    Sad that there's a lot of people out there who believe this "fifth scenario." It's ridiculous. And to Nick in Las Vegas– yes, Obama should win because of the math. That is the system, that is how it works. Superdelegates are part of that math, they are there to overturn the vote of the people if they feel necessary... and even they now are leaning towards Obama. This race is over.

    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  7. Ron

    Hillary is 20 million in debt. I wonder why she would want to continue fund raising and campaigning....hmm...

    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |


    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  9. Diddy

    Choke on Hill,,,,you should have seen it coming,,,the math is against you,,,argh get lost,,,,now like everyone else,,step aside and let history blaze the path,,,,,,,GO BARACK!!!!

    Obama 08/12

    May 14, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  10. Michelle Casanova

    What a joke.

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  11. David L., Enfield, CT

    At the beginning of this Primary contest I liked both candidates. Although I was an Obama supporter, I would have voted for Clinton had she gotten the nomination.

    Now all that has changed. After the dirty, slimy, politics as usual campaigning the Clintons have done I will never think of them the same way. I now see them for what they really are. They have no integrity, dignity, or ethics. She is so obsessed, blinded by her own ambition and out of control ego that she is borderline mentally ill.

    I am not the only person who feels this way. My family and some co-workers have been totally turned off for good by the Clintons ruthless, dirty campaigning. They are disgusted by her now. She is thought of as a sore loser who will not concede until she is carried out bodily at the convention.

    If she gets the nomination, I will not vote for the first time in my life. I know others as well who will sit this one out if she steals the nomination. She has lost, she needs to accept that. Just because it is her dream, doesn't mean it's the American peoples dream. We need someone with intregrity.

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  12. Zelda of Pittsburgh

    Say anything . . .

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  13. Ardnuas

    This is sooooooo stupid..................You don't win based on popular vote..... We go by delegates
    Obama/Hagel ( I want Chuck Hagel to be VP)

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  14. James

    Yeah yeah... Hillary please stop.

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  15. Dee, NY

    Ahead as a legend in your own mind

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  16. commentspage

    I’m democrat but will NEVER EVER vote for Obama, because:
    1. Obama has never done any job from starting to the end
    2. He is a walkie-talkie
    3. He has no political ideas at all
    4. He was rised by Chicago mafia politicians
    5. His wife Michelle takes bribes
    6. His portfolio is thinner than a sheet
    7. He ruined the party with all those betrayers like Richardson, Pelosi, Kennedy ans so on

    So if Clinton is not chosen or the results are falsified (as Dean & Co try hard) then I vote for Nader or write-in Clinton

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |


    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  18. Carol, WI

    Just when I was about ready to make a donation to the joint Dem fund to help Hiillary repay her debts this same old tired argument comes out again. The Hillary campaign blames Obama for disenfranchising the FL/MI voters (even though that is not true) yet they disenfranchise all caucus voters. Don't people see the irony in that?

    On a separate note, if I start to see Hillary supporters back off the 'I'm going to vote McCain if Hillary does not get the nomination' rhetoric I will gladly contribute to the joint fund that will repay her campaign debt.

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  19. randy

    It's kind of funny now that it doesn't matter.

    May 14, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  20. Fi

    @ Nick in Las Vegas

    It's completely a matter of the math. The nominee needs a certain number of delegates at the Democratic National Convention. There are no other factors.

    Do you even understand how this process works?!!?

    May 14, 2008 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  21. Roger B from Portland, OR

    Yet another example of the Clinton campaign putting their fingers in their ears and humming loudly. So all those states that held caucuses and not primaries don't count? So much for "every vote counts". How about "only votes for me count". What is this, Russia?

    May 14, 2008 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  22. Larry in TX

    The audacity of hope vs. the audacity of hype.

    May 14, 2008 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  23. smw

    Nick in Las Vegas is asking a very odd question. "The math" is also known as "votes cast." So let's rephrase his question: "Should he be the nominee just because of votes cast for him?" Um...

    May 14, 2008 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  24. OregonVoter

    OK, this is just stupid. I guess Edwards knows a winner when he sees one and McAuliffe doesn't.

    May 14, 2008 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  25. tms

    Please, give it a rest!

    Hillary, it is NOT your time – move on.

    May 14, 2008 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
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