May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption="Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday."]
(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. JAY

    great to see all of the Dems coming around. however i don't get how a few racist voters in America who rather cross pparty lines than vote for a black man, considers that them and there little circle of friends will somehow change the election. go vote for McBush if it makes you fell better. for everyone of you who does that 5 people wont

    May 20, 2008 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  2. K

    In the immortal words of Gomer Pyle: SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE! what did you think was going to happen? Hillary winning?

    May 20, 2008 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  3. Gregory H. Brooklyn New York

    Its healing time one and all, lets unite, lets us show the nation and the world what the UNITED STATES of AMERICA can be. Come on board Sen. Clinton, we know you're a fighter, lets fight for our beloved UNITED STATES. Like my 6 year old son says, OBAMA '08 USA....OBAMA '08 USA.....OBAMA '08 USA. We're all in the together.

    May 20, 2008 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  4. Cindy

    As a woman I am VERY disappointed in the way Hillary has behaved in her campaign. She has used every female trick in the book to win this and all it has done is cost her. She has cried, begged, had fits and now she want special treatment because she is a woman.
    All she has managed to do is prove to all of us that she should not be in the white house again. In My opinion she has let the woman of this country down by setting a very bad example of what we all want to be.
    I am an Obama fan and there are many reasons for this. One big one is that he has yet to have to stomp his feet or cry to get everyones attention.
    Next time a woman runs for President I hope to see a more stable one. But, for now, Obama gets my vote.
    Cindy S., in Texas

    May 20, 2008 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  5. Dallas, TX

    YAY! America is rallying behind it's next leader: OBAMA!!

    Yes we can!

    May 20, 2008 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  6. sasha kando

    It is not about bashing Hillary; it is what Bill and she have done in the last months to bring this about. Bill was one of the most "adored" democrat until he threw Hillary and himself into the sewer! Is this bashing? I would submit not, because if they had remained positive, she could probably be our nominee. Many young women and even older ones like me have been sorely distressed by the path chosen by Hillary. We strongly support and advocate for women, we want them to be at the same level as men, but only if they deserve it. We do not want our daughters and granddaughters to look to somone like Ferraro, who is still bitter. We are strong in our own rights, and we say Hillary as such until she and Bill destroyed their own chances. They are still blaming others!! As the people we have looked up to, they should know better and rising above gutter politics would have raised their esteem as well. But sad to say, they went the opposite way. All of us are better than that if we choose to remain so.

    May 20, 2008 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  7. Vy, California

    this is what happens when you don't know when to leave the dance floor

    May 20, 2008 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  8. Mary Sue

    It is soooooooooooo hard to let the healing begin when Clinton surrogates like Geraldine Ferraro are saying they'd have to think about voting for another Democrat- because of sexism. What kind of leadership is that? How does saying something like that help heal the party?

    If Hillary would just be gracious like Mike Huckabee, I'm sure no one would be asking her to leave the race. But the things she and her surrogates are saying are hurting the party, not healing it.

    May 20, 2008 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  9. b black



    May 20, 2008 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  10. Tired of all the Flap

    Senator Cllinton, please do not do this!!! This race is very important for the Democratic party to win the White House back after so many years of misconception. I'd like to say to everyone even if you are in the opposite party to keep Senator Ted Kennedy and his family in your thoughts and prayers through this time of his illness.

    May 20, 2008 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  11. just jo

    i agree with some of the other bloggers...let's keep it simple and straight...kinda like boxing...the referee looks at the two opponents,and says keep it clean, DING!!!! Let's unit and keep it clean!

    May 20, 2008 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  12. Andrew

    As an Obama supporter since he entered the race, I'm thrilled to see the Democratic base uniting around him as we near the general election. I also hope that other Obama supporters will join in commending Senator Clinton on a hard-fought campaign. It should be clear to any Obama supporter that Clinton would have made a fine President, at least compared to McSame, and the same goes for Clinton supporters regarding Obama. I don't see much Clinton bashing among Obama supporters myself, and surely not more than I see Obama bashing by Clinton supporters, but the fact is they are nearly identical when it comes to their policies and we all need unite as Democrats if we want to avoid a third term for W.

    May 20, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  13. Floridian

    James in Redland, CA

    Are you serious? I wasn't what the clinton's said or did to get Obama the support of the black people as you said, it is Obama himself. Stop always thinking we as an african community can only vote for the clinton's they had their time it's time for change or haven't you been listening? Obama is that change .

    May 20, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  14. Matt


    May 20, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  15. Anthony - Morgantown

    And the wheels start to slowly spin off the wagon...

    I can't wait to hear all of Clinton's cronies shut up. To hear the things they say and the spin they try to put on the inevitable defeat...and I thought Bush was delusional.

    May 20, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  16. Cali Girl

    For all so-called Democrats that will not vote for Obama if he is the nominee:

    Are you truly democrats? Have you not had enough of failed Bush policies which McCain is just going to continue? Are you not tired of reading of more and more casualties in Iraq?

    Think about the future.

    Democrats United We Stand

    May 20, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  17. Kevin-Seattle

    A very positive sign for the Democratic Party....we need to heal and unite for victory in November!!!

    Dem in the White House!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  18. The Lady

    I really do not think that Hillary is losing her support group, i think they just like everyone else want to unite the Democrat party and move on.

    May 20, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  19. Fredi

    More Math:

    Obama needs 14 more delegates to reach the majority of pledged delegates (1,627).

    If we add Florida (211) and Michigan (157) the majority is 1811.
    If Obama wins Oregon by 10% (29/23 of 52 delegates) and loses Kentucky by 30% (18/33 of 51 delegates) he has 1660 and needs 151 more delegates. Obama and Edwards together had 47% of votes in Florida which should translate into some 100 delegates -> 51 more to go. 40% voted uncommitted in Michigan. If even half of those are Obama voters he will receive another 32 delegates for a total of 1792. That means that even with counting everything Hillary's way Obama needs only 19 delegates from Montana (16), South Dakota (15) and Puerto Rico (55). 19 out of 86 = 22%.
    So even if Hillary can convince the super delegates that her way of counting is correct (and nobody seems to buy that argument), she still loses in pledged delegates.

    May 20, 2008 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  20. Cindy

    It's comforting to know that many supporters of Clinton are willing to accept Obama as their compromise choice. I would have done the same had it gone the opposite way, even though I was very angry at her. Either Obama or Clinton would certainly be better than McBush.

    Those Clinton supporters that continue to backlash at Obama for stealing their choice... I can understand their anger and their frustration... as I already said, I am also angry at Clinton, and felt she was playing too dirty to deserve my vote. I cannot help but see the comparison of frustration expressed by Rev Wright, the feeling of racism and sexism in America... both are real, both have chips on their shoulders, and both have every right to express themselves. God bless America, the black liberation movement, and women's rights. We are more alike than we are different.

    May 20, 2008 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  21. alice2Fresno,CA

    This definitely looks good for Obama. It seems like all the Dems will come together to beat McCain. We need to put a Democrate in the White House and that will be Barack Obama. The DNC will not let Hillary STEAL the election with her grand illusion of getting the popular vote by illegally counting Florida & Michigan where Barack did not campaign or was not even on the ballot in Michigan. How UNFAIR would that be?? I would hope some kind of fair compromise will be worked out.

    May 20, 2008 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  22. Wayne Atlanta

    I read some of these comments & can only shake my head. Those Democrats (?) that say they will never vote for Obama, yet the only reasoning you have is you don't like the man. This is a America & we have the right to vote however & for whomever we please. The sad thing is you'll be the FIRST to complain if Sen. McCain gets into the WH & continues down the same road we've been on for the last 7 years. Vote as you please but don't gripe & moan about what could be or could have been. By the way go ahead & get your Republican card. Because by no means are you a true Democrat.

    May 20, 2008 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  23. gr

    ITS A WIN!

    May 20, 2008 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  24. tf

    "waaahh, my candidate lost, so now i'm going to vote for someone who believes the opposite things are best for the country just because it makes me feel better!" – Anyone who does this doesn't deserve to vote.

    May 20, 2008 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  25. Conservative -CA

    Democrats will unite around Obama and keep converting Republicans into Obamacans.

    May 20, 2008 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
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