May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption="Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday."]
(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. A Woman From Missouri

    This is truly wonderful news!

    May 20, 2008 02:22 pm at 2:22 pm |
  2. Tex

    Poooooooooooooooooooooooooor Hillary! You have an opportunity to fool

    May 20, 2008 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  3. hillbilly lover

    I'M not sure why people feel that cnn is pro-obama. they haven't said one thing to support his candidacy. if anything they've glorified hillary as if she was the pope.

    i think it's just time that we all unite and support obama. hillary can and will only win if she does away with him and his family (please don't take to this idea hillary). it's not fair that this continues and hillary should do all that she can to make sure everyone supports him and that we make him into a stronger candidate. in her heart of hearts i truly believe that hillary knows obama has a better chance at winning the ge, but a woman wants what she wants.

    May 20, 2008 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  4. Kwame

    Obama supporters:

    GET IT TOGETHER! Please stop hating on Clinton supporters. We need the whole party and we need to start being gracious winners and not acting like spoiled little kids. Yes it's exciting that we have won, but we NEED Hillary supporters in November, can we please work hard to get them instead of pissing people off??

    May 20, 2008 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  5. Tony

    Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Obama but is a Hillary supporter, Why? The both have almost identical political beliefs, Hillary doesn't want you to vote for Mccain over Obama, why would you do it? Why would you not just vote for the winner of the party that best fits your beliefes. If you are a Clinton supporter and refuse to vote for Obama, the least you can do is stay home or vote for Nader or something. Why would you ever vote for the complete opposite party? It makes NO sense.

    You also must realize there can only be one nominee, and Obama is leading in pledged delegates, if he has more pledge delegates, why would he not win? WHY? If the nomination were somehow given to Hillary over Obama, even though he won more delegates, what would that say about the election process? I think Obama supporters would have a much better reason for not voting for Hillary for the simple fact that Obama is the front runner, and will stay that.

    Also, anyone still trying to argue she has the popular vote, take into consideration that there were ZERO votes for Obama in Michigan since he wasn't on the ballot. Hillary gained over 330k votes in Michigan, there were 220k uncommitted votes (probably wanted to vote for Obama but he wasn't on the ballot...) The fact that she is trying to say she has won the popular vote counting Michigan and Florida is funny to me since She gained all those votes and he gained nothing, and even after doing that kind of crazy math she is only up 40k votes. Maybe there should be a compromise, that those states can count, but All those uncommitted votes in Michigan should go to Obama (he would have won more votes then that anyway if that state would have done its primary on the actual date) That can shut everyone up about the popular vote, and when you do the math that way(the more logical way of doing it) She would be down by oh... what? 180k votes or so?

    May 20, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  6. Linda Esen

    Surprise, Surprise

    May 20, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  7. Sacramento

    Demographics, shmemographics.

    We are all PEOPLE, and the people have spoken!

    No more red states and blue states! This is the UNITED STATES!


    May 20, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  8. Hans-Erik Iken

    Seems the dems are starting to come together to beat the living daylights out of the GOP this coming fall.

    Great that the dems are grown up enough to realise who the real opponent is. I am looking forward to the results in november.

    No more republican in the WH next january, what a relief that will be!

    May 20, 2008 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  9. Ruben

    Gayle: Vote for the person that will do the best job. In 2000 and 2004, people voted for Bush because they "liked" him more. Because he was the guy they prefer to have a beer with. They didn't take into account who would do the better job. Clinton was a very strong candidate but unfortunately she will lose. Between McCain and Obama, vote for the person who will do the best job. The person who provide change from the problems of the past administration. For the person who will defend our civil liberties, the right to choose, and truly is in tousch with America. I don't Like Clinton, but I would have voted for her because our country cannot afford to have a Republican in the White for the next four years. Especially this one.

    May 20, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  10. Cathy

    I've been a strong supporter of Obama's since day one. With that said, I can honestly say there has never been a time where I would not vote for Senator Clinton if she were to become the nominee because WE NEED TO DEFEAT McCain!!!

    Democrats MUST STAND TOGETHER and get our country on the right track again!!!!

    May 20, 2008 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |
  11. Richenel ( the Netherlands EU)

    Mmmm good strategy !!

    Why she isn't attacking Obama anymore?
    Why is he not attacking Clinton anymore?
    Why are they attacking Mcshame all the time?

    Behind the scene they planned to get more independents and republicans over to the democratic side. I call this some kind of FREE PUBLICITY!

    They will definitely win in the fall !

    Obama for president '08
    Clinton in cabinet for Health '08

    May 20, 2008 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  12. Kiran

    I AM SICK AND TIRED of these women who keep saying they won't vote for Obama.


    If we loose this race it'll be b/c of MISGUIDED, BITTER, AND SELFISH WOMEN, who can't see the BIGGER PICTURE.


    May 20, 2008 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  13. Daniel K

    Haha, some of the comments these Hillary supporters make are delirious to a laughable extent.

    Just accept defeat and quit being such poor losers.

    May 20, 2008 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  14. Hillary Huckabee Romney McCain Rodham Clinton

    Well, there goes all her "current" arguments. You can only lie to yourself and the public for so long as George Bush found out the hard way. See, Hillary, we're not as dumb as you think. You really insult me and my family when you "misunderestimate" our white, blue collar intelligence.

    May 20, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  15. rachae

    I think people should really take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Obama is most more closer to Hillary positions on everything. I hope that after the disappiontment people will come around. You are just hurting yourself if you don't. 100 years of war..............ect.

    May 20, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  16. wd in calgary

    Clearly, those still supporting Clinton and claiming to see "no substance" in Obama, are simply not looking or listening to anything with any personal effort beyond headlines that align to their personal preference... Get off your butt and do a little work to learn about what's going on around you!

    May 20, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  17. roy wilmore

    PLEASE, PLEASE can anyone explain to me why HILLARY supporters are so upset because BARACK beat her fair and square!!! JUST FACE IT!!! He didnt lie, he didnt pander, he just out campaigned and out manuevered her. STOP BEING SORE LOSERS!!!!

    And if you call yourself a democrat and you say that you'll vote for McSAME instead of OBAMA, when Hillary and OBAMA basically have the same ideas, do us a favor, SWITCH PARTIES!!!! Because you obviously have a closed, simple, conforming, idiotic mind . Yep, that sounds like a Republican!!!!


    May 20, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  18. Marc

    Gayle, don't be ridiculous. Decide based upon the candidates and their positions on the issues, be it in the Primary or the Gen Election. Grow up.

    May 20, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  19. Dave

    it's over. no more Bush/Clinton rule/regime.

    May 20, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  20. think people

    You don't have to have a college education to have common sense: the race is over and folks will vote for their own best interest. Congratulations to Sen. Clinton for a historic run at the White House: she should be proud, not of the methods she used, but of the fact that she made evident than women can compete for the highest office in the land. I hope she runs for NY governor or stays in the Senate.

    Obama/Somebody Equally good '08!

    May 20, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  21. Annette

    The shock and awe will die down..soon. The most important thing is that they have each other.

    May 20, 2008 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  22. Alaska

    Its all over for Clinton.Obama is the man.
    Pls u should ask the reason why Mccain's face is like that.
    Imagine a man who says he knows nothing about the Economy of Great AMERICA and he want to be preseident.?Ohhhh.
    Too bad John.
    Obama 08

    May 20, 2008 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  23. H-ROD

    Come on lets end this allready ! (yes Obama can )

    May 20, 2008 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
  24. K in MD

    Duh… like we didn’t see that coming.

    A Dem is a Dem. And a Dem will vote for a Dem in November. Blue-collar/white-collar, rich/poor, educated/not educated.

    Without Hillary in the mix, Obama will pick up the votes. It’s a no-brainer.

    Thanks CNN for reporting the obvious though. Hillary and some of her blue-collar support need to see that to understand only one Dem will be in the mix in November. They don’t seem to grasp that.

    May 20, 2008 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
  25. Trokon

    Look, Gayle, this election is not about Hillary. It's about the nation we so love. You should know that this election is a contest. If she did not win, it does not mean people should do things to have the republicans in the White House again for our gas, food, and the war to put this country off line. A democrate should always be a democrate. I need you to vote Gayle because I am for Hillar, but if she do not get it, I can not put the republicans in the white House. Democrates has lost for a long time now. This is their chance for victory.

    May 20, 2008 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
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