June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. Rave

    There is a white thing in the skull called BRAIN.
    Anyone , who has that will vote for OBAMA and try to come back into reality, restore our image in the world, make US a safer and stronger place, improve economy, be the world leader like we have always been.
    THINK, THINK, THINK, THINK.... This is High Time to make any more blunders.
    OBAMA (2008 -16)

    June 16, 2008 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  2. Angus McDugan

    What else would you expect to be reported by a media that is sumbling all over its self to blindly follow Obama?

    June 16, 2008 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |

    822 adults? Out of millions of people, 822 doesn't tell me squat!!!

    June 16, 2008 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  4. Big Texan

    Psi Se Puede!!!

    Obamacans Unite!!!

    Presidente Obama January 09

    June 16, 2008 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  5. gae

    I won't vote for him either, Ohio Voter!!

    June 16, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  6. dee

    DUHHH.its obvious...

    June 16, 2008 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |


    June 16, 2008 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  8. Rudy NYC

    This election will most likely be won in a landslide. The foremost question is who will be the winner. Polls predict trends, but yet they have never predicted close outcomes or landslides.

    June 16, 2008 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |

    Are these polls sure of actually bringing about what its results is based on come November? If the republicans dont rig the Election this time.

    June 16, 2008 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  10. VOTE 08!!!

    Obama will win in November and we will be a better America for it.

    16 years of republican rule and we will truly live to regret it.

    June 16, 2008 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |

    Of course he'll win. Look at the man, his brilliance, his morals–he has it all. McCain has too much going against him–age, Republican, Bush, Iraq, messed around on his wife, explosive temper.

    June 16, 2008 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  12. Vote Nader

    I'm still holding out hope that America will wake up and elect a man who has always fought on their behalf and will make the government work for them again.

    ** Nader/Gonzalez 2008 **

    June 16, 2008 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  13. Matt, Manchester, CT

    Fantastic work reporting this one CNN. Putting credence in polls such as these with a whole summer campaign season yet to begin makes little sense. Let's ask President...er...Former Governor Michael Dukakis how he feels now about his big poll lead over Former President Bush after he secured the Democratic nomination. Bravo.

    June 16, 2008 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  14. Ex-mod-GOP for Obama

    Obama should win solidly in November. Look at the surge in Democrats registered during the primary season and the huge advantage the Dems have in picking up former Republicans. Plus, Democrats are motivated to take back the White House, while Republicans are demoralized.

    June 16, 2008 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |

    June 16th, 2008 11:49 am ET
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    I tried to post this on another article but to no avail.

    The GOP is so scared. Why don't they run ads about the issues instead of attack ads?


    Because you have to say more than "War. War. and more War" in a 60 second ad.

    -PS Gas is $2.50 in Mexico. Even less if you pay in Pesos. I figure Haliburton/McCrypt/Bushwacko don't have investments pending in Tijuana.

    June 16, 2008 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  16. Dandelion.

    He needs to.

    June 16, 2008 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  17. @everyamericans

    Obama is going to win by landslide...........

    June 16, 2008 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  18. Mike

    McCain is going to have to work hard to get that perception of a winner, and not of a "Bob Dole runner-up." Not that this poll really means a whole lot anyway.

    June 16, 2008 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  19. go away mongersventura ca

    The time for CHANGE is NOW- These hillarybots that are full of hate need to start actig more like HER- and listen to HER instead of spewing their hatred three weeks after-the-fact. You LOST- get OVER it.
    The republicans have brought us the enormous mess we're in- and these "Hillary/McCain 08 folks must be into S&M!

    June 16, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  20. Venus

    Come on CNN! You base your findings on polling 822 people considering how many people will vote in Nov?

    You can get much better polls from people at gas stations or sitting in their cars!!!

    Go Obama!

    June 16, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  21. fairandstraight

    You can add me in that number that think's he will win!!!

    Watch our image improve world wide with President Obama in the whitehouse!!!!!

    Obama & whoever is best for the job 08

    June 16, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  22. Walt, Belton,TX

    God help us if he does...............

    June 16, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  23. Steve in DC

    President Barak Obama!!!! I like the sound of that!

    June 16, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  24. Never Obama

    I think Obama can win the general election however, he can ONLY do so by picking up ONE of the two: Ohio or Florida. If he thinks he can win without either one of them, we may as well swear in John McCain as our next president right now.

    This idea is absolutely foolish and dangerous to even toy with this notion. I live in Las Vegas, NV. Because of the "Sin City" logo, the state of Nevada is very conservative and he WILL NOT win here. This is a battle ground state that he is banking on and once again, I know this state like the back of my hand. He will not win NV, nor Colorado where I have family.

    Obama needs to keep his eye on the ball and not give up on Florida or Ohio. He will NEED Hillary Clinton to do so. If Obama continues to be POMPOUS, he is guarenteed to lose in November. These are the facts. If people can't accept them, then perhaps they better start accepting the fact that John McCain will be president.

    WAKE UP OBAMA CAMP! YOU NEED HILLARY, and FLORIDA OR OHIO TO WIN in November! DON'T be too proud or pompous. Those two are a bad combinations and a perfect recipe for defeat!

    June 16, 2008 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  25. Kiah

    He is going to win and become this nation's FIRST African American President. Because he is qualified and ready to lead this country back to it's dignified and respected place in world history.

    Obama '08!

    June 16, 2008 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
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