June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. paul, nyc ny

    BY THE WAY, Obama-ites, if Barack Obama loses it is NOT because of Hillary Clinton or her supporters. It will be because a great number of people did not think he has what it will take to be president. PLEASE do not start the blame game early or without blaming the man in question.

    If he loses it will be like this:
    Hillary supporters did not come out for him

    He will lose because he would have not connected to certain people and that is not their fault, it will be his. IF he loses.

    June 16, 2008 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  2. TonyNJHC

    Sooo, the votes of the Citizens of the Great States of Florida & Ohio don't mean much to the obama camp. According to the article on the CNN tincker, they believe they can win the Presidency without your votes! Sooo, Good Folks of Florida & Ohio, tell your neighbors of this news, found on the CNN Ticker. Remember the thoughts of the obama camp in November On Election Day. McCain served his country during time of war. He did not hide out in Canada. He went through hell for his country, AMERICA, and he left the hell he was put through with a coating of good old American 440 Steel. I believe the Citizens of all the States of America, the Greatest Country on the planet, should remember how the obama camp were sooo sure they would win in November, and surprise the obama camp with a Landslide Defeat! Landslide McCain will keep America, America. Why would someone wish to change America? Standup for America Americans! Now is the time to put all party ties aside and stand for the country our forefathers built and fought for! Now is the time to stand with "The Man" LANDSIDE MCCAIN!

    June 16, 2008 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  3. Anonymous

    Imagine if McCain did win, how stupid we would look to the rest of the world. Every time I travel, people tell me they love Americans, but not America. How could Americans be so stupid to vote to put someone like Bush in office, they ask.

    The problem with Americans is we have no perspective in the face of the world. People don't travel internationally enough. Vacations consist of Disney Land and Hawaii. Nations can't live in isolation anymore, and we can't live in isolation and lead the free world on our own. We need partners around the world and we need a President who can manage those relationships, not bully other nations.

    June 16, 2008 02:09 pm at 2:09 pm |
  4. AVEMBE The sun

    NOBODY can tell who's gonna win each side can ONLY make wishes!!!!
    so please stop these"polls" that can change everyday...But since Mr Pluffe considers that they are able to win without OHIO and Florida...

    June 16, 2008 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  5. ted

    This article and the polls showcased in the article are biased. most of the margins are within the gener statisical margins of accuracy BUT they leave out the most important group of voters: adults 55+. This group is generally the kingmaker and given their cultural biases will lean more towards McCain – like it or not. This really is a poor piece of reporting especially given that only 822 polls were taken for it.

    Look, we're Months away from the election and the real battles for the general election have not even started. I totally get it that Obama's a newsmaker and the press like him. BUT if Obama wants to win he should actually keep the momentum going and ask the media to stop reporting on polls they'll just get people tired of hearing it or complacent – like the Clinton supporters became for a while. keep your powder dry or do something meaningful...

    BTW did Bill Cosby write your father's day speech Obama? I get it that your a "good guy" and want to empower your people, but the more you sound like a public service announcement the less you sound like a president. FOCUS

    June 16, 2008 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  6. Antwinette

    Beth: The "Land of Affirmative Action", eh? So if Obama wins, he's gonna make everything more cushy for all the coloreds? Be a little more realistic, please and stop being afraid that all of the brown people will take over! Bah, you'll never read this anyway because CNN doesn't post responses like FOX news does.

    June 16, 2008 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  7. gastoys

    As long as Obama's cults keep a "Typical White Person" out of the White House I guess it's all good. In the mean time I will be exercising my 1st and 2nd Amendment rights by clingning to my guns and religion because you never know when you'll have to rise up to protect the Constituion of the United States once Obama get's in office.

    June 16, 2008 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  8. JIM...TX

    While this is good news TODAY...tomorrows poll with another bunch of voters and same question would be different. Polls have many variables an all we can hope for is that Obama gets himself out an known to more people so that come November..THE last poll shows him as POTUS!

    June 16, 2008 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  9. Jamie

    Usama and Obama will win. God save us all from "change" and a nuclear Iranian madman. Obama makes Jimmy Carter look like a commander in Chief.

    June 16, 2008 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  10. humblesage

    Excuse me Vote 08!!!, it was 20 years since Republican got wrong. Don't forget four years of Bush Senior. He was totally off mark from Reagan already. He was the Washington insider. You are correct in putting Clinton on the wrong side, but economically, he did good.

    June 16, 2008 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  11. Mondo from NY

    Asian, what are you... for Hillary or Obama? Sounds like your just an idiot trying to get people upset. ... Republican?

    June 16, 2008 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  12. Peter

    Andy J–

    We get it. Yu don't want Obama.

    Frankly, I can't see how anyone can look at the misery of the last 8 years and think voting for McCain is a good idea.

    June 16, 2008 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  13. Jason

    Barack the Vote!

    June 16, 2008 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  14. Daniel, WA

    CNN, you can take the polls in New York or Chicago or LA and then say Obama will win general election. We will make sure that he loses miserably. We will see that he loses the election because he is a fraud.

    June 16, 2008 02:16 pm at 2:16 pm |
  15. TKB from DC

    It is so funny how many people post their opinions using blogs. I think it"s great. A note to the Republicans–here are the facts. Whenever, we have a Republican President in the White House, the economy and budget go out of control. It's a cycle–the rich gets richer and everyone else get poorer. This is worst I have ever seen the GOP screw this country up in my 46 years of life. This is a typical cycle. When a Democrat gets elected, they have to spend two years fixing what the Republican has done to the economy and the world.

    Do some research and you will understand what I am saying.

    June 16, 2008 02:16 pm at 2:16 pm |
  16. jane

    OmenBama camp, so arrogant, first disenfranchised in Florida, then counted as half, now that king Hussein is going to be crowned by the DNC, they think they can win without Florida, see you in november.

    June 16, 2008 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  17. Bill

    I'm liking Obama more and more every day. Did you see him shoveling sand into sandbags on TV?

    June 16, 2008 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  18. DemtoMcCain

    Senator Kerry would you like to explain to Senator Obama's cheerleaders how accurate these polls are?

    June 16, 2008 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  19. Larz

    This is responding to Andy J,NY... LOVE CNN,AND DO WHATEVER TO SUPPORT THEM IN EVERY WAY!!!this is not that CNN loves OBAMA,and it doesn't make any difference.FOX loves McCain ,and it's always saying positive things about him when the whole world knows that he's been working with Bush for the past years and more.He is one of the bright,old ideas that got this country,this world into this mess.It's not CNN.CNN is great!!In 2000 they warned us about BUSH ,and look what we've had!!!I think that if your girlfriend cheats on you,and you take her back,she'll do the same thing again sooner or later!!!that's what's gonna happen if we are so stupid keep this country in the wrong direction we've been following.OBAMA 2008!!I am a republican,but I don't think we are what we need right now in America!!Obama is!!We need to heal the world!!!

    June 16, 2008 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  20. Not fooled by distractions.

    No doubt obama will win. Women are the largest voting block – after reading "The Geldings" voting record on womens issues, any woman that votes for McCain would seriously need to have her head examined. any man that calls his wife a cun* is not respectful towards women and shouldn't expect their vote.

    June 16, 2008 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  21. Hillary Supporter

    Any body who loves this country cannot vote for McCain. I cannot vote for a President who:

    McCain opposes equal pay for Women

    McCain supports torture

    McCain has an anger management problem

    McCain wants to give more to the top 1% of Americans where he belongs

    McCain's takes delight in vicious songs like his Bomb, B..., B... Iran song

    McCain admits has no clue on getting us out of this Rethuglican economic mess

    McCain wants to spend another 10 billion dollars a month for 100 years in Iraq

    This is just a tip of the iceberg .
    Guys WAKE UP and save us from mediocrity.

    June 16, 2008 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  22. Locutus of 'Bama

    Your racist life, as you have known it, is over. From this day forward, you will service HIM.

    June 16, 2008 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  23. Jim

    To Beth – Florida: You don't have to say anything else for people to see where you're coming from. Please read the comment written by Seth in Jacksonville, FL. Thank you.

    June 16, 2008 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  24. Heather

    What is sadder than $4+ bucks a gallon??? The fact that everyone want something for nothing and they think that Obama will take away their need to pay income taxes and give it all to the top 1% or the ones making over $250 a year. What will happen then??? All those that have actually made it will close up shop and put you out of work. Because why should they have to pay your dues?? Then what are you going to do???

    We are hated because we are a superpower. We have been hated for decades. 9/11 is absolute proof of that. That wasn't this Presidents doing-that had been YEARS of planning. Sorry making nice with these people is not going to change that hatred.

    Obama says CHANGE. Other than making this a DEFEATED country by pulling out of Iraq, and taxing only the top 1% and making you jobless in the same breath...What else is he going to do??? Someone please tell me. All he is is a pretty voice with pretty words and a whole lot of nothing.

    June 16, 2008 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
  25. JK

    The picture shows it all. McCain looks like he already has 1 foot in the hole.

    June 16, 2008 02:22 pm at 2:22 pm |
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