June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. Mark

    Affirmative Action IS racism

    June 16, 2008 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  2. Joyce in Florida

    This poll you're mentioning is pretty pathetic. Not a good result for the majority of the remaining 18+ million Hillary supporters. 822 people? Give me a break. I am still hoping for a miracle here and that we will see Hillary Clinton back before Denver. STILL WANTING AND WISHING THAT HILLARY CLINTON WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT. GO HILLARY. STILL SUPPORT YOU AND WILL NOT DONATE TO OBAMA CAMPAIGN; ONLY TO YOU. GO HILLARY 08!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    June 16, 2008 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  3. Erica of Ga

    We can now see clearly how a lot of Non African Americans look at African Americans that are competent. If one more person posts a comment about the so called "affirmative action" candidate, I'm gonna scream. I guess that it is unlikely that he ran an excellent campaign, raised loads of money, motivated millions of Americans to get involved, and beat the sure win Hillary Clinton because HE was the best. Everyone is talking about the nearly 18 million people who voted for Hillary, what about the nearly 18 million people that voted for him? You just don't like him because he is who he is. Let's just be honest here people.

    **************************Please post*************************************

    June 16, 2008 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  4. 1911

    Beth – Florida June 16th, 2008 12:53 pm ET

    The beginning of the end…

    The land of opportunity will become the land of affirmative action.

    Sad that for most Americans.
    Clearly the most racist and ignorant comment i've read in a long time....Sad!

    June 16, 2008 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  5. An Independent Hillary

    I guess America will get what it deserves. Can't we ever get anything right???

    June 16, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  6. shelly

    If McShame can't explain what victory in Iraq is , he certainly won't win the GE

    June 16, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  7. bill

    If obama does get elected, God help us because this country will be doomed, he will NEVER EVER be my president.

    June 16, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  8. Down with Obama

    CNN, I love how you delete comments that are against Obama.

    I am one of Millions of women and MEN that will not vote for Obama!!!!!!!!!!

    June 16, 2008 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  9. Mich

    if he does win, will he take oath in WH as Barack Hussein Obama , or will remain Christian ?

    June 16, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  10. George C Straight.

    All Hail president Obama!!! Hoo RaH

    June 16, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  11. Lars Larson

    David Letterman said it best, "George Bush was a mistake". A vote for McCain is the same mistake for at least four more years. McCain will keep the policies because the GOP will make him and lobbyists will line his pockets.

    Call Obama all the names you wish, but please don't be blindsided by McCain.

    June 16, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |




    June 16, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  13. Mensa member

    Has anybody noticed that comments of Obama supporters are more intelligent than McCain supporters? Me neither.

    June 16, 2008 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |
  14. Marie


    Clinton supporters are not racist and I beg to differ, we do understand the issues. However, let us not forget that Hillary was thrown out by the media because of her gender. We feel she was an excellent choice and that will not change. Twelve million people voted for her, nobody can forget or ignore this fact. Can you say that Obama will receive the twelve million supporters of Hillary? It is very unlikely that he will.

    June 16, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  15. Paul C. Palmetto Bay, FL

    I am sure that the majority believe Obama will be elected but I am more than sure that when push come to shove they cannot bring themselves to vote for a (half) black man.
    Remember these are the same millions that voted for Bush twice so do not underestimate their stupidity.

    June 16, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  16. Joe

    "of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. " This is a weak poll. Very small sample rate.

    June 16, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  17. TKB from DC

    For the CNN basher! This is how they make they money. They are only telling the news and keeping us informed.

    This is why the Republican was praying Sen. Clinton would have been the Democratic Candidate (because they had more dirt on the Clinton's and it would have been so much easier for the Republicans to play the dirty politics game). Since Obama doesn't have as much dirt, the GOP do not know how to deal with him.

    It seem they are bias towards Barack Obama because, Sen. McCain keep screwing himself by saying the wrong thing, forgetting information, and/or just making incorrect decisions. Believe me, when and if Barack Obama makes a mistake, they will drive it into the ground.

    June 16, 2008 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  18. Barack the Vote in RI

    Anyone who was for Clinton and now is for McCain is either a flat out racist or is ignorant and simply does not understand the issues. Simple as that!

    June 16, 2008 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
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