June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. arc, Lugano CH

    What many of Hillary Clinton supporters fail to realize is that their anger and bitterness for Senator Obama is inversely the very reason why Hillary Clinton will not be elected President of the United States in the upcoming general election. The voter base of Senator Obama along with many Independents and former Republicans would never in a million years vote for Hillary Clinton. It has come down to a question, perhaps, of how many democratic votes will be cast out of anger, hatred and age-old accepted American racial prejudice (wisely reconfigured and utilized by the Clinton campaign as a movement against elitism); and are they going to minimal enough to defeat John McCain and the GOP?

    June 16, 2008 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  2. Uncle Sam

    Yet the current Gallup poll has Sen. Obama with a mere two-point lead on Sen. McCain. And that is following Obama's recent nomination. John McCain has been left for dead before. I wouldn't count him out.

    Coalition of Independents & Democrats for President McCain

    June 16, 2008 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  3. Will in Richmond, VA

    I believe as we get closer to November, the trend will continue and intensify.

    Obama cannot get complacent, though. He must continue to push his agenda and 50 state strategy. If Florida and Michigan and Ohio go red, that will be difficult to overcome. The popular vote is meaningless, ladies and gents. This is a Republic, not a true Democracy. Which is something we all should have learned in 7th grade civics. I have no doubt that Obama's team is keeping this in mind.

    June 16, 2008 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  4. Bob/NH

    There's really no contest...McCain is the weakest republican nominee out of all the candidates he started with...Obama will be the next president – and the country will be the better for it.

    June 16, 2008 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  5. Seth in Jacksonville, FL

    I dislike the constant polling. These don't mean much. We don't need polls to tell us Obama will win this fall – that is a given. It's just going to be interesting to watch the margin of victory. It will be telling of how much progress our country has made if Obama does well in some of the states with populations that tend to be concerned about Obama's race. Come on everyone, let's catch up to most of the developed world. It's ok to vote for a black man.

    June 16, 2008 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  6. Super Delegates

    I hope the Super Delegates are getting more "bang" for their "buck" than the voters are. The Democratic Convention should be very interesting this year. Will they "crown" him or will they "throw him under the bus", too???

    June 16, 2008 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  7. Beth - Florida

    The beginning of the end...

    The land of opportunity will become the land of affirmative action.

    Sad that for most Americans.

    June 16, 2008 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  8. Richard, FL

    Let's hope the polls are right. We need the smartest person we can find. We don't need a forgetful person who has sold out on what he used to stand for in order to get the nomination. We don't need a president who has supported Bush 95% of the time.

    This country cannot afford to have McCain who was asked if he wanted Dick Cheney in his administration and said "Hell, yeah".

    June 16, 2008 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  9. Abby

    Wonderful! It’s such a joyous thought unlike the alternative -fear/hate.

    June 16, 2008 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  10. Jerry from Oregon

    obviously young people have been so jaded by the system that the don't believe the establishment will let a motivating change candidate win.

    let's prove them wrong and bring them into our Democracy!


    June 16, 2008 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  11. W.H. Thomas

    Oh no....A positive Obama post....Here comes the Hillaryis44 crowd to shoot it down.

    June 16, 2008 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  12. Sweetie

    What a Joke!

    Obama is going to loose by HUGE Margins!

    He only has a cult base and now that he told Ohio and Florida that he doesn't need them his cult following is growing smaller and smaller.

    McCain 08

    June 16, 2008 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  13. Belle

    Yeah well, Bush won in 2004 even though everyone knew he used lies to justify war.

    June 16, 2008 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  14. bernj

    If Obama does not win the real loser will be the American people. Another 4 years of republican incompetence and corruption is unthinkable. Bush and McDumb and their oil company friends will destroy this nation.

    June 16, 2008 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  15. nonny

    he will win..i think by landslide

    June 16, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  16. Ralph

    That's because the majority of us are paying attention. McCain is unelectable. It won't even be close in Nov.

    June 16, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  17. Rita

    An adgenda no one could have imagined. The end is near.....

    June 16, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  18. charles

    most young people have mobiles not landline so your poll is not accurate.

    June 16, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  19. Leon James

    What do all those Billary supporters have to say now?

    Clearly, in spite of all of the bitter critics, Barack Obama is going to win the Presidency with OR WITHOUT Hillary's supporters.

    Affluent white voters; independents, young white college students, and African Americans will easily put Obama right over the top.

    The future looks bright.

    Obama '08
    Yes we WILL.

    June 16, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  20. Greg, NY

    Beth from Florida,

    This has nothing to do with affirmative action. America is all about the best man for the job gets the job, and in this case Obama may not be the best man for the job, but he is certainly the better one.

    June 16, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  21. Connie


    June 16, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |

    I'm sure Kennedy, Kerry, Daschle, Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Brazile, Oprah, Dodd, Richardson, Michelle, et al will vote for Obama, but he's beginning to make me wonder about him. Is he prepared to be President of the United States?? Is he tired of campaigning already??

    June 16, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  23. Cynthia

    I agree with Senator Obama will be the next President.

    Beth-Florida – you say the land of affrimative action – black people having been voting for white candidates every since they were given the right to vote. Get it right.

    CNN Please Post.

    June 16, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  24. christina

    This number will ONLY grow as we get closer to election time.

    OBAMA '08!!!

    June 16, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  25. Were NOT your friends!

    Of course. ALL OF THE POLLS ARE CRAP! We are in the age of cell phones now. Who uses a land line anymore, I'll tell ya not anyone under 40. I would have to guess that there's a large demographic of voters out there that NEVER get polled. If Sen. Obama is up give or take 6 pts on conventional polling I think that bodes extremely well for him and the Democrats in November.

    OBAMA '08

    June 16, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
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