June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. Eric from Somewhere

    Wishful thinking...

    “McBush”?.. “McSame”?... A “Bush third term”?... It is obvious that some of you Dems don’t follow Republican politics. To win a war, ye should know thy enemy.
    The reason McCain was nominated was that most Republicans do want change. Yes, they do.. Most hardcore Conservatives don’t like him at all. He’s too Liberal. And on many occasions, he votes against the party line. But you can bet that they will vote for him before they vote for Obama. Just as I will… He’s at least more conservative than Obama. And more trustworthy.. I wanted Rice, but I’m suspecting that she is holding off for ‘12. We’ll see.
    “The same as Bush”? Wha..???......

    June 16, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  2. laura, CA

    Get off it CNN!
    Again, way too early for any polls. September is when polls are telling and November is when it counts. That's a long way from now in political life.
    Besides, last fall 80% of democrats said Hillary would win the nomination!

    This is not news, but it is propaganda.

    June 16, 2008 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  3. PJ Independent, New York

    Give me a break!

    Of course Obama is 'the favorite' to the liberal networks like CNN and MSNBC, etc. LOL What a joke!

    John Kerry was supposed to be a 'sure thing' too. I remember all the polls back then, he was way ahead. These polls are getting more and more ridiculous, they really are!

    Obama will NOT be the next president of the United States. The Democrats shot themselves in the foot again when they threw Hillary Clinton to the wolves, for their 'number one' liberal Obama. The 'top Democrats' in Washington still don't get it... they continue to try and shove their most liberal down everyone's throat. It only backfires on them though. Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, John Kerry.... all VERY far to the left, all tried to becomce president, none of them made it. Obama will join the same list in November when John McCain wins by one of the biggest landslides in US voting history.

    June 16, 2008 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  4. hugues

    yes,we cannnnnnnnnnn

    June 16, 2008 01:01 pm at 1:01 pm |
  5. Dian

    Obama all the way. You got what it takes. We love you.

    June 16, 2008 01:01 pm at 1:01 pm |
  6. Celeste

    President Obama! President Obama! President Obama! ...For those in denial, get used to it.

    June 16, 2008 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  7. Glenn

    I am a white 63 year old male living in Texas. I will gladly cast my vote for Barack Obama. John McCain is so out of touch with what the average American is thinking, feeling or sffering. His whole campaign is pinned on war. How pathetic! Maybe it's his age, maybe it's his life experiences that have warped his thinking, but a vote for McCain is simply a vote saying that you approve of everything that Bush has done. Even worse, a vote for McCain is saying that you are in denial of reality and everything in the country is great and you approve of $4+ a gallon of gasoline, the nationwide mortgage crisis, the loss of jobs, the suffering economy, the rise in food prices and everything else.

    I believe that 90% of all Americans are for worse off today than they were when Bush took office. I know I am and I will vote for barack Obama.

    June 16, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  8. big ed

    His constant playing of the current add, where he talks about NO policies, and only his service, has pushed my friend, and injured vet, over the edge. She is now supporting Obama. She was on the fence. But his commercial disgusts her. While Obama is pushing policy, his campaign has been "I'm a vet so vote for me." She even has an Obama voting sticker. That add is on 20 times a day and I'm sure it didn't have the effect intended.

    In fact, I know three vets under the age of 40. One's in a wheel chair from an Iraqi IED. One was in a helicopter that crashed in Kosovo, and she is on disability. The other is an administrative discharge after he was shot in the should by a sniper in Afghanistan. They are all voting for Obama.

    June 16, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  9. voter

    to beth: I take offense to your comments. Obama nor any person of color is an affirmitive action case. He worked hard to get to where he's at. No one gave him a free ride as Hillary and McCain who cannot understand the meaning of a struggle because they were born with a silver spoon in their mouths. I don't understand why some people believe when a person of color succeeds it is due to affirmitive action and not because they are qualified.

    June 16, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  10. Rose - Baltimore, MD

    Yeap, we need a smart guy for president.

    Obama '08

    June 16, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  11. Illinois

    Well, it's obvious you're polling people in demographics that are favorable to Obama because most people KNOW that he won't win the GE. The guy is unelectable. Almost everyone knows that.....even his supporters in Washington.

    You can keep trying to elevate his poll numbers and try to present him as a much better candidate than he really is, but it won't work in November. His numbers keep plummeting and most people are not going to vote for him. Everyone kept saying that his numbers would go through the roof once Hillary got out of the race. Well, guess what, that hasn't happened at all. If anything his measely little lead he had over McCain for a few days is now gone.

    Take the stars out of your eyes, people. This man is NOT who you think he is......

    June 16, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  12. aka1577, MI

    To Beth-Florida: Land of affirmative actions with Obama's win? Girl, you are really losing your bearings! Get a life or get some prozac.

    June 16, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |

    Obama Is The Best Person To Be The President And This Poll Proves It! IN YOUR FACE MCCAIN!

    June 16, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  14. Murry - Arizona

    I would love to finally have an itelligent person running our administration. Somebody who can articulate, somebody who can win back the confidence in Americans. Bush is the most ignorant man alive and McCain isn't far behind him. He should have gone to toastmasters.
    Go Obama – All the Way!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  15. Ralph

    Caling all Ohio and Florida voters, give yourselves a hand for the heck this country have gone through the past eight years. One would think that the Democrats should easily win these states after what Bush has done. What is it gone to take......more automobile plants closing down and the loss of more jobs (Ohio). How about a major natural disaster and a "no show" from the government (Florida). Go right ahead and vote for McCain. May God help us all.

    June 16, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  16. Brandon Hillary Democrat for Mc Cain

    BS Lets see what the typical white person says this fall- paticuliarly in those small towns where they cling to guns and their religion. Those rural small towns in states like ohio and western pennsylvania and all the many other swing states.

    June 16, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  17. Heather

    McCain admitted to Yahoo News earlier this year that he doesn't even know how to use a computer; his wife processes all his e-mails. Just add it to the list of reasons why McCain is out of touch with America. Does she chew his food form him, too?

    It's not important to McCain that the troops come home soon from this sham of a war. It's not important to McCain that his fund raisers are callous towards rape. The man can't even survive without Joe Lieberman (aka GOP-in-waiting) whispering in his ear.

    My family is coming together for Obama - including my Republican husband (Air Force veteran), Republican father (decorated Navy combat veteran of the Korean War) and my Republican in-laws.

    PUMAs who vote for McCain are selling America down the river for spite. Obviously their petulant anger has blinded them to the fact that they're paying over $4.50/gallon for gasoline, and losing their homes to foreclosure.

    June 16, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  18. big ed

    He has no capacity to handle situations where respect is necessary. In all honesty, could you see him meeting with World Leaders? If you think anyone could be worse than George

    When asked yesterday by reporters what it was like to be interviewed by Russert, McCain said with a smile, "I once told him I haven't had so much fun since my last interrogation at prison camp."

    June 16, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  19. Jerry

    Obama will be a good president to America

    June 16, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  20. lizfor hillary clinton

    obama will force and make people vote that HAVE NEVER VOTED in their entire life and have no idea what the heck they are voting for except for "change"...whatever that means.....CHANGE CHANGE for the worse....okay this is a popularity contest all over again...how SAD

    do you folks now his background...he totally eliminated his competition in Chicago...that is the only reason he won was bc he was the only one on the BALLOT....he is a total socialist...i think..does not want any free trade...is for reducing EXPORTS...he needs to go back to school and get a basic business degree and realize that america is a capitalist country

    June 16, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  21. joann

    Obama will not win! We can't trust him – he is getting caught in too many lies and he can never admit he was wrong. We want Hillary Back.

    June 16, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  22. Dave

    Funny how CNN will only report polls favorable to Obama. I wonder if they still will when the polls reverse in McCain's favor? I have great hope that the silent majority will prevent Obama from turning this country into another failed socialist state.

    June 16, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  23. Lucy

    As a democrat, I really and truly hope that he does win. Still, I do have to say that this seems like a continuation from the primary coverage in which the media shoved Barack Obama down our throat. BEFORE ANYONE REACTS, I will repeat that I am voting for him and I truly hope he does beat McCain. Judging by some of the things I've seen and heard from some other democrats who haven't made up their mind yet, I just think the media should be careful about turning them off–because we really need Obama to win. Just saying.

    June 16, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  24. Loretta from California

    I do not feel comfortable saying that he will win. Reading some of the remarks posted here has led me to believe that he still has much convincing to do.


    June 16, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  25. Austin

    It's indisputable that Obama is the next Presido of USA. Maccain or whatever he calls himself should go and sleep. He is too old to be in the office. what he deserves now is to be in the house playing with his grandchildren.

    OBAMA 08-16

    June 16, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
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