June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. annointed one

    He is the self-proclaimed Messiah, after all.

    How not to win?

    The Oprah and the Media control public opinion in this country- and they have already coronated the KING.

    June 16, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  2. Greg from Big Island

    Polls don't mean as much. If these poll results were consistent in Obama's favor between Aug and Nov, then I would believe he has a chance to win the presidency. I'm for neither candidate. People need to be aware of the "Wilder Effect" and "Bradely Effect" Unfortunately, there are pocket of white voters who will lie to pollster about who they support in an election if there is an African American versus a White candidate. The response from Beth from Florida shows ignorance. Just because an African American may win the presidency doesn't when black people and other minorities have taken over or there will be affirmative action for every non-white or non male person. Whites will still be the dominate power in our country and racism will be a huge factor, so don't feel so bad! Comments like yours shows that this country has still along way to go on race relations and electing a person of color to the highest office in the land. You must be an angry white women republican who lost your job to an illegal alien or a black person because you weren't qualified. You probably felt that your best qualification is your white skin.

    June 16, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  3. tony

    Be Careful not to wake those sleeping dogs-
    Don't alert them–
    Every Race has shown the Dems out to a lead at this point-An Underdog at this stage is very dangerous–

    June 16, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  4. Ted

    When Virginia turns blue, the nation will be shocked, and so will the world. I think he's probably gonna win, but McCain has a shot.

    @Glenn in TX: Thank you for showing that the pollsters aren't all knowing. White men can vote for Obama, blacks can vote for McCain.

    June 16, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  5. Go PUMA

    If PUMA has its way there will be a third Bush term! YAY! GO MCCAIN! Do us proud! Give us a third Bush term, just as you've promised! I'm not miserable enough yet! I need to pay higher gas prices and let you control what I can do with my OWN body. And we don't need those pesky gays getting married. And we relish another 100 years in IRAQ! Because we love being miserable dang it! Our queen Hillary didn't win (and we're sore losers) so now we have to spend the rest of our lives being as miserable as we can and bring the rest of the country down with us. Who cares about all the lives lost in Iraq....certainly not us! All we care about is the fact that WE DIDN'T WIN! And we must have been cheated.....there's just NO WAY we could have lost fair and square. That dang DNC was out to get us from the start. NO FAIR! WAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaa

    June 16, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  6. scarey

    He better – or we are in deep hockey pucks!

    June 16, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  7. in good hands?

    How can Obama lose...

    With the MEDIA working for his campaign and trashing everyone and anyone that criticizes Obama.

    The media won't touch the Messiah and his wife- for fear of the RACE card.

    It no longer matters if you are qualified or not. The only thing that matters is who the media PUSH and who the celebrities have a crush on.

    June 16, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  8. Frequent Flyer NYC


    June 16, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  9. tony

    Was Clinton a Republican or just the 1st Black President–
    16 Years-what are you talking about-
    You must be on federal subsidy's–

    June 16, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  10. Alice - NYC

    I agree with Beth ...

    America will no longer lead the world, we will become a divided country.

    How Sad.

    June 16, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  11. KO

    Maybe his numbers will go up when Hillary starts to go across the country and campaign for him.

    I still think McCain can win this thing, though.

    June 16, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  12. Brian from Fort Mill, S.C.

    "Well, it's obvious you're polling people in demographics that are favorable to Obama because most people KNOW that he won't win the GE. The guy is unelectable. Almost everyone knows that…..even his supporters in Washington.

    You can keep trying to elevate his poll numbers and try to present him as a much better candidate than he really is, but it won't work in November. His numbers keep plummeting and most people are not going to vote for him. Everyone kept saying that his numbers would go through the roof once Hillary got out of the race. Well, guess what, that hasn't happened at all. If anything his measely little lead he had over McCain for a few days is now gone.

    Take the stars out of your eyes, people. This man is NOT who you think he is……"
    Wishful thinking on your part.

    The fact is that, for the past five or six months, Democrats have been out-voting the Republicans 2 to 1.

    You're gonna be really pissed in November!

    June 16, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  13. NoMcSame

    Only a fool would vote for McSame as bush. He gives me the CREEPS. Looks like the walking DEAD in the Night of The Living Dead. Do we really want to have that old geezer represent us for the next four years? We already had a clown for the past seven, now do we need a zombie?
    Michigan you better get on board and stop the foolishness. The red states are the reason that we are in this mess. Time for a change don't you think?
    PUMA people and the rest of the BITTER ones go do what you want but don't cry after the fact. We really don't care what you do with your vote so you can stop telling us. Our man is going to win with or with out you.

    June 16, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  14. David

    I feel like I am at an Obama/McCain basketball game and the news media are the cheerleaders: Gimme an O. Gimme a B. Gimme an A M A. Go Obama! Go Obama! Go! Go! Go! Well, news reports are not votes. Obama is going to go down. Hard. And it is going to be a pleasure to watch. The media did a disservice to Clinton during his presidency. They did a disservice to Gore during his run. They did a disservice to Hillary during the primary. And they are still doing a disservice to the American people by promoting this novice. Obama is an illusion promoted by a delusion. Sad.

    June 16, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  15. Jeremy

    Obama will not win! That's not what the electoral map is saying, maybe the popular vote, but then this country doesn't choose its leaders by the popular vote. McCain shouldn't be doing terrible given the unpopularity of the GOP. That he is doing really well, even neck and neck in the polls, forebodes trouble for the democrats.

    June 16, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  16. Lois

    The very fact that McCain had 3 months of free campaigning to shore up his support, before we even had a Democratic nominee, yet he is BEHIND in the polls, is VERY telling. He talks war, war, war. And unless Leiberman is standing near to tell him the right things to say, he would be lost. It is sad to see that this McCain is surely not the McCain of 2000. He needs to retire.

    June 16, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  17. Asian4Hillary

    Of course he'll win WITHOUT any state of the Union voting for him. The DNC will SELECT him as President of MENTALLY IMPAIRED AMERICANS.

    McCAIN 2008!!!!!!!


    June 16, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  18. Henry

    Win what a cell next to Rezko?

    June 16, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  19. Pepe

    If the Democrats want to win the November election they must be one united front. It is happening but very slowly. Meanwhile, the Republicans have been united since the beginning of the campaign and I consider that an advantage right now although the polls do not show it.

    June 16, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  20. Peggy - Tx

    Regarding comment by Beth – Florida, posted at 12:53 pm.

    No where in Obama’s platform is an agenda of Affirmative action. Your comment makes you sound Racist, because of the lack of substance in your criticism in combination with your use of the buss word “affirmative action” absent any qualification that would give meaning to the word affirmative action. Unless you state who is to be favored and for what selection process- the word “affirmative action” alone has no meaning. For example, “affirmative action” could refer to selecting only white males as possible candidates for positions of national office even when a non-white or female is the better candidate.

    June 16, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  21. Asian4Hillary

    NOBAMA is good for MSM, they make MILLIONS of DOLLARS out of him.

    Sure NOBAMA will win, IN YOUR DREAMS!!!!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  22. GR

    It is really sad that he has to be the democratic nominee, so I guess we just have to buck up and vote for him if we want a democrat. I hate it.

    June 16, 2008 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  23. Bob Indianapolis, IN

    Amen to that!

    June 16, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  24. j

    I think it will depend on how effective a smear campaign the Republicans wage. I think Obama is the better candidate on issues that are important to me. I don't agree with McCain on just about everything, it seems. The fact that he found the recent Supreme Court ruling "worrisome" is just the latest in reasons for NOT voting for him. McCain = Keating 5 = POOR JUDGEMENT!

    June 16, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  25. Taa Taa

    Illinois, you are stupid along with Beth.

    June 16, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11