June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. Natalie

    I certainly hope so! And I have a comment in regards to the article about black conservatives potentially switching their vote to Obama. One conservative said that he did not agree with most of Obama's policies or much of anything he had to say, but may vote for him due to the historical factor. That angered several bloggers (several of whom were Hillary supporters). But tell me this: how does this differ from spiteful Hillary supporters voting for McCain, who offers stark differences from Hillary on just about ALL policy matters, while Hillary and Barack share almost identical policies on just about everything??? They're clearly not voting on policies either, rather out of spite, bitterness, and in some cases race (the race factor is in the black conservatives as well).

    Do what's best for your country, and the future generations!

    Obama/Clinton '08

    June 16, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  2. The Mid West Sends a Message

    The real reason bam says he can't win in Ohio and Florida is because he can't . Ohioans and Floridians are too smart for this smooth talking candidate. He can wow the people in Montana who sleep most of the year and he can wow the people in Iowa, but he can't wow us.

    He is a quitter as well. And did you see the girlie picture of him shoveling sand into a bag. and he had on a dress shirt and gloves. The real men didn't wear gloves but this girlie man did.

    We don't need a girlie man in the white house.

    June 16, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  3. Greg Pottstown, Pa.

    No poles showing Obama winning so we will show you that most Americans think he will win. Not that he is doing better in polling but that people think he will do better in polls.

    Lets sum up. CNN is trying to show you that Obama will win. I believe in was CNN that told the world that Kerry was beating Bush in the 04 election even telling you that the exit polls show Kerry winning by 11%.
    CNN Stop supporting Obama .

    June 16, 2008 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  4. Tanya Kujath

    Obama will win if former Hillary supporters like myself would get over it, realize she is not the Democratic nominee, and not vote for McCain out of pure Stupidity.

    June 16, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  5. Andy J, NY



    You put out story after story, and if you didn't see the polls (not that i put much faith in them), you would think that obama has already garnered %90 percent of the vote.

    But, he is only 4 points ahead in current polls, and thats not even with the margin of error.

    Stop trying to portray Obama as the inevitable President.

    We understand you think Obama is perfect, but the fact that you shove him down our throats with 15 articles a day, and about 3 featuring McCain and 1 every month featuring Bob Barr, shows that you are in Obama's pocket.

    June 16, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  6. Democrats Unite!!!

    Yes he will win, and more importantly, he will be one of the greatest presidents ever!

    Just watch.

    Obama/Nunn 2008

    June 16, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  7. Shelly

    CNN, please stop with the propaganda. I would like to see Obama win too, but the frequency and slant in your reporting is sickening....It will only polarize the republicans.

    June 16, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  8. Photon Torpedo Dallas, TX

    Beth – Florida,

    You obviously don't know the candidates. Your quote:

    "The beginning of the end…
    The land of opportunity will become the land of affirmative action.
    Sad that for most Americans."

    Please tell me how knowing the history of Senator Obama that he will hearald in the U.S. being the lad of affirmative action? Especially when that's been going on for years in this countyr and not only for African Americans?

    Yes We Can!
    Obama 08'

    June 16, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  9. NickNas

    It seems only CNN and Spitefull Hillary supporters ( or those GOP Bloggers who pose as them) Think MCain has a chance.

    This man has more Baggage than Samsonite and has "Flip Flopped more than a Flounder on a hot Dock!!" (the latter is copywritten)

    June 16, 2008 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  10. EDW

    So, for those of you that won't vote for Obama is this over the "bitter" comment??? Please tell me. I would like to know an American right now that isn't bitter about these ridiculous gas prices, foreclosures, and expensive grocery prices. I for one am very bitter about all of this!!! Gas was about $1.50 the day before Bush took office!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  11. Peter

    These types of polls are truly meaningless...

    The only "poll" that is going to really count is the actual vote and that is quite a way off... keep in mind... conventional wisdom had it that Hillary would win by a landslide over Obama... didn't happen did it?

    June 16, 2008 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  12. Mr. Spock

    Because the needs of the many, outweigh, the needs of the few.

    June 16, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  13. Andy J, NY


    Stop shoving Obama down our throats. You are so pro-Obama, you should really ease up because every day i read these blogs, more and more people are waking up to your incredible bias.

    Something is rotten in America, and its bias news networks like CNN and FOX.

    June 16, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  14. JJ

    Goodness another poll! The media loves these polls! With the election in Nove, a poll in June will do anyone any good. Please stop with the polls!

    June 16, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  15. Hillary Clinton

    Avoid the trauma, stop Obama!

    June 16, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  16. David in Illinois

    McCain as president is just too scary to contemplate. 4 more years of Bush economics (which got us to where we are today.) 4 more years of not being prepared (no energy policy, no policy to extricate us from the Iraq war, no plan for when disasters hit like Katrina. Well, Iowans will probably say we're a little more prepared, but I should HOPE so!).
    Oh, and 4 more years of tax cuts for the wealthiest of the wealthy, which McCain used to say were unconscionable. But he has FLIP-FLOPPED on that, too.
    I have nothing but respect for all the former supporters of Sen. Clinton, who have gone to work fighting for Obama to make sure we end these Bush years/policies. I only wish the election were in 5 days rather than 5 months.

    June 16, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  17. Veronica nj

    yes we can..and yes he will!!!!

    OBAMA 08!!!!!


    June 16, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  18. martin

    of course he's going to win.we need to restore integrity to the white house.barack obama and family are the only choice.republicans have let the american people down,with so many lies and half truths,that have cost so many lives.

    June 16, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  19. Rick FL

    I also believe Obama can win, and he will make a great president for all Americans based on the issues facing our nation.

    Si se puede!

    June 16, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  20. idealistic voter

    McCain is toast.

    There is no way a Repug can win in Nov. Every few years, the political winds shift the other way. We vote in someone different. That's how it goes in this country. Awesome !

    June 16, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  21. Larz


    June 16, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  22. rowzeer

    Beth "the land of opportunity will become the land of affirmative action"... Affirmative action provided opportunities for females and minorities to have a chance in the working world.

    If the world were run by a black woman majority and they held ALL the power...you don't think there should be a mechanism in place to protect the white minority or men?

    300 years of slavery, jim crow and years of the rule of thumb (a man can beat his wife with a stick no larger than his thumb) have changed!! We're no longer living in the 50's.

    June 16, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  23. SUE IN CT

    People of all demographics are seeing the light and supporting Obama. Those who read and believe the despicable blogs about him and his wife are the victims of hateful propaganda.The election will be close and very exciting, but Obama will be victorious in November and the next four, hopefully eight, years will prove him to be the leader America needs after the disastrous Republican administration.

    June 16, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  24. No Socialist, NY

    The only way Obama can win is if enough people are deceived into voting for someone offering a "change" for the worse Obama is the most liberal senator we have. This country is in for some "changes", if he gets in, and they won't be good ones. His experience with fighting the enemy is so lacking that he's afraid of town hall debates with McCain! His policy is, tax the rich and give to the "poor". Well, why bother working hard and trying to get rich if the government is just going to steal it and give it to the "poor"? I'm all for charity, and contribute voluntarily, but this should be voluntary. Some people are poor because of circumstances beyond their control; others are poor because they won't get off their lazy rear ends and work for a living. Believe me, I know, I live in New York – tax and spend capital of the U.S. These are my views and our family lives on less than $60,000 (gross) a year. Obama will help to destroy this country. I'd vote for Condi Rice any day, but not a liberal candidate. McCain may not have the best policies but they are better than Obama's.

    June 16, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  25. Mr. Spock

    Illinois June 16th, 2008 1:05 pm ET

    "Well, it's obvious you're polling people in demographics that are favorable to Obama because most people KNOW that he won't win the GE. The guy is unelectable. Almost everyone knows that…..even his supporters in Washington.

    You can keep trying to elevate his poll numbers and try to present him as a much better candidate than he really is, but it won't work in November. His numbers keep plummeting and most people are not going to vote for him. Everyone kept saying that his numbers would go through the roof once Hillary got out of the race. Well, guess what, that hasn't happened at all. If anything his measely little lead he had over McCain for a few days is now gone.

    Take the stars out of your eyes, people. This man is NOT who you think he is……"

    Your statement is without fact of any kind.

    June 16, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11