June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/16/art.bomac0616.gi.jpg caption="A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll."]
(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. bettee

    I've already forgotten the name of Bill Clinton's baby mama.

    June 16, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |

    YES WE CAN!!

    June 16, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  3. rowzeer

    Studies show that racism is alive and well. Affirmative actions helps to level the playing field.

    June 16, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  4. chris

    obama is gonna lose marginally!!!! oh my god ... see what he has done to you guys ... ie making you believe he is a man of change????

    I got bored of reading the news that obama brushed his teeth, has completed toilet, hugs his children...

    you know how much he pays for CNN,washinton post,NY times etc to keep his name coming in everyday newspaper... you know why he does that bcoz he is scared that he is gonna lose the election.... America knows and finds out people who fake their experiences lol....

    I think in favour of experience MCcain should win... if hillary is there in the race she would have won by a landslide...

    He is not going to choose hillary as VP... that is the moment every hillary supporters are gonna change to mccain.. you guys know how much he hates her and he will not choose her ... he is taking sometime for the hillary tide to reside , to pick a different VP candidate.... hey come on dont you give the critical situation of america to a inexperienced senator....

    June 16, 2008 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  5. BA

    illinois.... you have obviously been paying very little attention these last several months... barack obama has gotten more votes this year than ANY candidate, in ANY primary season, EVER. and his lead will only grow once the less partisan voters who do no take part in the primaries get a chance to see obama go head-to-head with mccain, and blow him away in debates.

    you say that obama's numbers did not go up after hillary dropped out... that isn't true. obama has had a bounce of 5-6 points in several states, and as large as 15-20 in others, such as wisconsin. if anything, cnn stands to gain from making the race look closer, in john mccain's favor, than it truly is.

    if you don't want obama to win, perhaps you should talk about why john mccain is better, rather than spreading feeble lies about the unelectability of his opponent.

    June 16, 2008 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  6. Frequent Flyer NYC


    June 16, 2008 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  7. demwit

    To bad we don't live in a mob rule world...

    June 16, 2008 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  8. Jack

    It doesn't matter what people believe, it matters how many of these beliefs translate into votes....

    remember that Mr. Obama overpolls in pre-election day polls and exit polls on election day b/c some people are afraid of telling a pollster that they won't be voting for the African-American candidate out of fear of being perceived as a racist

    June 16, 2008 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
  9. caribbean male

    Thanks for the oppertunity cnn,let me first say congrats to the American people for opening up their eyes to smell the time as for the last two GE the Republicans have been playing on fear and war to let it's people afraid of the middle east and so on,
    being an outsider and the way that Americas politics is been run the Democrats in office will be and is what America needs right now and to make it be what i knew it to be and where this beauitful country(AMERICA)has to be the best last country on planet earth,the Republicans has BADLY distroy the image of the country abroad but you all Americans have the price oppertunity to do the right thing in November to put them out,note i am not takin no side but just saying it as i am seeing from the outside looking in.love you people of America.
    i am from the beauitful country of the commonwealth of Dominica,cnn please post.
    I listen to CNN,FOX and ABC 24/7 to get my starts plust the internet so i am well imformed,bye.

    June 16, 2008 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  10. Marsha Brady

    Jukebox hero, with stars in his eyes! Go Obama

    June 16, 2008 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  11. indianapolis

    And you conduct your own surveys, Illinois? I think Obama's a politician with a progressive platform who has a good chance of winning the general. Who do you think he is, Illinois? What's your conspiracy theory?

    June 16, 2008 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  12. Marie

    CNN – Why not ask people how they feel in regards to Obama smoking again. This is an important issue which begs discussion.
    Obama appears to have a problem with judgment in many areas.

    June 16, 2008 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  13. Zigg

    I say McCain will win by a landslide. Why would anyone choose a wildcard like Obama when a true patriotic American here is running – John McCain. Obama wants to raise taxes and have a hasty exit out of Iraq, that doesn't so so great to me. Anyone notice the headline in Irag are that they are celebrating their soccer victories, and how the schools are coming along. God forbid the media have a blitz on the positive stories.

    June 16, 2008 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  14. Andy J, NY

    @ Seth from Jacksonville

    You, my friend, are what is wrong with this wave of Obama support.

    It is ok to vote for a black, and i would happily do so, so long as he holds the same values and belief system as me.

    Fortunately for me, im not a socialist, nor a racist, nor do i feel guilt just because Im white. For all these reasons, i will not vote for Obama. This guy has attacked oil company profits (which are about %50 owned by Americans retirement and pension funds), he wants to redistribute wealth by taxing the rich and giving to the poor (who are too lazy to take a job at McDonalds b/c someone put the idea in their head that they are too good for that), he doesn't want us to drill for oil here in America and wants us to get it from countries who dont like us, he wants to expand the size and spending of the Federal Gov't, which is never a good thing, and the list goes on and on.

    Stop trying to make white people feel guilty if they dont vote for Obama. I don't support McCain either, does that mean i hate white people? Obviously not. I am a huge fan of Louisiana Gov. Jindal, does that mean i only like people of Indian heritage?

    Get over it. Not everyone likes Obama, not everyone is a socialist, and not everyone is a racist. Some of us, as opposed to people like you, vote based on our beliefs and values, and not out of racial loyalty or guilt.

    June 16, 2008 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  15. RightyTighty

    I do lovvvve the way the progressive media is setting the American poor up for another fall. Now just watch them give the Republican's the Presidency and Congress for 8 more yrs after Obama is elected and then branded a failure like his democratic predecessors..

    June 16, 2008 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  16. paul, nyc ny

    As a democrat, I believe that democratic politicians have me more on their minds than Republicans. But with Hillary out of the race and her experience with it, I do not believe that my ssecond choice will have what it takes to do the job. Barack Obama has the same use of words and rhetoric that Bush, jr. had and still has to pain a bad picture rosy without actually doing anything. I believe that Barack will not be able to make the tough decisions without a committee of voices telling him to do so.

    I believe John McCain, for all his faults (and he has many), has the experience and the strength to make calls that will be required of the leader of the United States. It is why when it comes time to vote, I will vote AS a democrat but FOR a republican.

    Good Luck, John McCain'08

    June 16, 2008 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  17. Fred Miller

    If Obama loves Illegal Aliens so much, why wont he just say so ,and then he can be soundly rejected in the general election by those who believe in the rule of law,and the soverignty of our nation.

    June 16, 2008 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  18. United Nation

    Yes, he will and May God guide him cos he has a good sould. I have seen hateful comments on here, this shows how ignorant many still are in the United states of A... well the world is watching, they are watching to see the fundamental principle of your so called democracy which you try to ventilate and force on others. They are watching if he will be judged by his name or by the colour of his skin. The world has changed, we live in the 21th century and not the 16th century, stop ranting and face the facts!!!!

    June 16, 2008 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  19. tj

    blah, blah, blah,
    We will see this in the fall, in Nov.
    Majority of Clinton democrats are agains Obama, and republicans event didn't start play now

    June 16, 2008 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  20. David Peter

    Yes! Thank you Republicans, for inspiring so many many young folks to vote and distrust your party enough to last an entire GENERATION!!

    Conservatism is dying. Politics in America will lean towards the left from now on, because it is already happening. Regime change has begun!

    June 16, 2008 02:04 pm at 2:04 pm |
  21. L. Menezes

    I totally agree, with the polls and as the elections draw near, these numbers will only go in Senator Obama's favour as Obama has yet to be seen and heard clearly by the so called conservative republican base. His message has resonated with people only when they were able to see him often and hear him him out. There is no doubt when he takes his stand on the platform with McCain, even the die hard republicans will have changed their minds on McCain.

    June 16, 2008 02:04 pm at 2:04 pm |
  22. Asian4Obama

    Anyone who was for Clinton and now is for McCain is either racist or simply does not understand the issues. Simple as that!

    June 16, 2008 02:05 pm at 2:05 pm |
  23. Fred Miller Arizona

    Obama goes to heaven and is talking to St. Peter.
    Obama tells him that things have really changed in the USA,
    that they have even elected a black president.
    Really says St.Peter,when did that happen?
    Obama replies, about twenty minutes ago......good luck

    June 16, 2008 02:06 pm at 2:06 pm |
  24. Republican for OBAMA!

    What sociopath actually thinks McCain will win?

    June 16, 2008 02:06 pm at 2:06 pm |
  25. Azmeth you are FAKE!

    I love it! GOP idiots are now posting on message boards disguised as arabs - praising Obama!!! You are SOOOOO DESPERATE...

    That's your brilliant strategy, eh? A vote for Obama is a vote for terror? Duh. Go back to grade school.

    June 16, 2008 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
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