June 18th, 2008
08:50 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll: Obama leading in swing states

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/03/art.obamamccain.gi.jpg caption="Obama is leading McCain in swing states in a new poll."]
(CNN) – Barack Obama leading John McCain in the crucial swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a new survey.

Obama lost the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania by 9 points - but a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows him leading McCain by 12 points, 52-40. In Ohio — a state Obama lost to Hillary Clinton by 10 points in March — he’s leading McCain 48-42. And in Florida, where he did not campaign this primary season and lost an unsanctioned Democratic contest, he leads McCain 47-43.

The Ohio and Florida results are reversals from Quinnipiac polls published a month ago, when Clinton was still in the race, and McCain led Obama in hypothetical match-ups.

In the waning days of her campaign, Hillary Clinton argued to voters and superdelegates that she should be the nominee because she was the stronger candidate to beat McCain in these swing states. Democrats in all three swing states say they’d like to see her on the ballot this fall, but independent voters give the idea a thumbs down by margins of 9-16 percent.

Florida clinched the presidency for George W. Bush in 2000, and Ohio did the same in 2004.

Quinnipiac surveyed between 1,300 and 1,500 voters in each state from June 9-16 with margins of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent for Pennsylvania and 2.6 percent for Ohio and Florida.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (216 Responses)
  1. Matt

    This is nothing.

    People are beginning to wake up and realize Obama would be a disaster for this country, otherwise he would be ahead by much more that that.

    If the media was honest, they would analyze why Obama isn't much further ahead considering the war and economy, but they won't.

    They will just keep telling the public that Obama will win, just like they did Kerry.

    ...and when he doesn't, you will all cry foul and claim the election was fixed...


    June 18, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  2. Satan

    Change is what we want. Bad change, horrible change.
    Change we can believe in........... I hope.......

    June 18, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  3. tony

    Oh Nick –By the way-They Haven't voted yet and I'm not convinced that these voters will actually pull the lever for Obama-
    Even in the primaries more people said they voted for him in the exit polls–The actual numbers were substanially less-
    By the way -Where's Hillary's support ?
    Her interests are served a whole lot more if Obama loses-
    Don't think the Clinton Machine hasn't thought of that-
    Long way to go–

    June 18, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  4. Versailles

    I do not know where you are puilling your polls from; however, I can tell you that you are absolutely incorrect.

    Obama is NOT beating in the swing states.

    Get your facts right or do not print them.

    PhD Research Analyst.

    June 18, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  5. carmen

    He can and he will win by the biggest landslide in history.

    June 18, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  6. Mrs. Wilson

    For all of you who say-–Never---No He Can't........................................

    ..................YES WE CAN..........AND YES WE WILL!!!!!!!!

    I'll Keep The Donations Coming!!!

    ................................................Democrat 08........................................................

    June 18, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  7. Ramesh Wadhwani

    It's Great. If these numbers hold till end of october, Then Obama will suely be the next Presiden of U.S.A.

    To all the Hillary supporters who are leaving hateful comments are really Republicans who are trying to divide the Democratic party.

    Just ignore them and be sensible.

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  8. Republican from FL

    Keep off our lawn you bitter and childish "hillary supporters".We have some sort of
    unity in our camp.Wanna disrupt that?If cant vote for your party candidate, stay at home and
    be bitter ! you guys deserve no sympathy.People who say this war is not justified – we dont need your support.
    Leave running the country to us.We decide whom we fight/befriend.

    McCain 08 – 2016

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  9. Election Watcher

    CNN has ommited possibly critical demographics in this poll,
    for example:

    Though, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women in these 3 states, the male vote is too close to call.
    Also Obama acutally trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, though he gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state.

    You can read the full results yourself at Quinnipiac University's website.

    By omitting these types of observations on the political landscape and merely reporting "Obama is good; McCain is bad" CNN is doing a tremendous disservice. Please CNN, report the full results without stacking the deck in favor of one candidate or the other.

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  10. Sheri

    Good news!

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  11. Anonymous

    Vietnam Combat Vet, can you be more specific? Who is the traitor? Why?

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  12. David in Chicago

    I don't like polls and don't always agree with them BUT I LIKE THIS ONE 🙂 lol go go go!! I think were all sick of old grumpy white men running this ship into icebergs!! Are you ready to be a part of American history?

    Obama = Evolution – Progression

    McCain = De-Evolution – Same

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  13. Rob Johnson

    Even if a sizable percentage of Hillary supporters vote for McCain, Obama can still win handily.

    Just look at the primary vote totals, with Hillary AND Barack often doubling McCain's vote total, and you can see why. If Obama can break even with independents, then we could see a landslide.

    Obama will get at least 300 electoral votes, maybe as many as 320.

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  14. The Truth

    Fellow Obama supporters:

    This is great news but lets keep in mind that only a small sample was used to come up with these numbers. We still have a long way to go and there are still a lot of ignorant, racist and uneducated people out there that will claim they're Democrats but vote McCain.

    Let's hope this trend continues and Barack keeps winning the swing states. This is one of the most important elections in history and we can't afford to lose it.

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  15. Phil Newton Murphy, Oregon

    Working families are waking up.

    Obama 08

    June 18, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  16. John in Ohio

    Obama is our next president. Bank on it.

    June 18, 2008 10:03 am at 10:03 am |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9