June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
13 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Enlightened Voter

    Of course and it will go higher. Look Obama's judgment has been sound, he is running a brilliant campaign and he is a visionary. For instance he said we should talk to our enemies like Iran, now the US (gwb) is considering doing just that today. Mcwar doesn't know what he wants, he is just blindly following the republican agenda which we all know has failed us. I will take Obama's judgment any day over mcwar's so called 'experience'.

    June 24, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  2. CNN loves Hillary

    Obama 08 & 12!!!!!

    McCain is too old to be anyone;s president!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  3. Obama Supporter

    Keep it up, bama!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  4. Barack Uda

    Well of course! He's the only viable candidate in the race!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  5. Maxine

    Yeahbama !

    June 24, 2008 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  6. David E

    I love it

    June 24, 2008 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  7. Ardnuas

    GREAT news..... let's elected Obama, so he can appoint Hillary to the Supreme Court, and Bill Clinton can travel overseas to help restore our RESPECT around the world!!!!!!
    Obama/Biden08

    June 24, 2008 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  8. Yes He Can and We Can

    Okay Barack, watch your back. The smear campaign is going to start. We are with you, don't forget it.

    June 24, 2008 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  9. Darth Vadik, CA

    Are you kidding me?
    McCain?
    That old crypt keeper?
    This is a landslide boys, a landslide,
    Dream on, dream on, dream on, dream on, dream on, dream on (Aerosmith song, sing it with me)

    June 24, 2008 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  10. Shane

    CAREFUL OBAMA DO NOT SCREW IT UP!!!! WE NEED SOMETHING OTHER THAN REPUBLICAN IN OFFICE.

    June 24, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  11. Fantastic!

    Success is the new black.

    June 24, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  12. Brandon Hillary Democrat for Mc Cain

    Obama will be the next Dukakis once the material Clinton had on him but could not use comes to light.......

    The Republicans will find it...no doubt about lol

    June 24, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  13. Gary of El Centro, Ca

    The Democrats are poised for big wins in November, from the top of the ticket right down to the local dog catcher. Bush and his merry band of neocons have succeeded in destroying the Republican Party.

    June 24, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  14. Candy - West Virginia

    MCWAR is a joke! I honestly don't know what he stands for, he changes his mind daily. He keeps touting this great foreign policy experience but terrorism has risen under repub rule and the world hates us. Every judgment that comes out of Obama's mouth is good and eventually we see that he is right. I'm sorry mcwar but you are laughable.

    June 24, 2008 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  15. Darth Vadik, CA

    he he he he he he he he he he he he

    Eat your heart out Uncle Sam (the guy that posts comments on this blog)

    June 24, 2008 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  16. Loretta from California

    .......lead has often melted by election day. Our Young voters should be mindful of this. We cannot afford to become complacent and remind your friends to vote come election day. The GOP has said that our (college students) young people will not SHOW UP on election day.

    DEMOCRATS UNITE!!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  17. Republican for Obama

    I can't wait to look in the face of the PUMA punks and laugh at how pathetic their movement is. Let's not forget, they actually believe they could get her elected, yet when they are factored OUT of the Obama vote, he still ends up winning. Do the math, Hillary could NOT have won at ALL. We got rid of the only morons that liked that incompetent, financial idiot.

    Bye Bye PUMA Peons, Hello Obamanation!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  18. Doris,Memphis,TN

    This great news for America!
    Change we can believe in.

    June 24, 2008 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  19. Joe Reed

    I am very pleased with the poll. As a Republican, I am disgusted with the way my party has behaved in the last 8 years. This year I am voting for Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.

    June 24, 2008 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  20. Steve

    “Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted,"

    In other words, June polls mean squat.

    June 24, 2008 06:30 pm at 6:30 pm |
  21. Clarisse Miglietti

    Senator Barack Obama has to chose Senator Hillary Clinton as his VP in order to win the White House.

    June 24, 2008 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  22. Jackie

    McCain is, as Obama says, a veteran worthy of our respect. He has been an important senator, keeping the republicans honest. However, he is not presidential material. He is out of his element on issues that do not resonate with him. He does the country the most service staying on as a senior senator. The future belongs to Obama and the people. Obama has only to learn a little humility to be the perfect embodiment of the national yearning and he will win. McCain does not need to lose; only to realize where his talents lie.

    June 24, 2008 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  23. Paul, Chicago

    This election cycle though I believe Obama's lead will not diminish significantly and he'll finish with at least 10% lead over McCain. Many poeple are tired of the Republicans running the show.

    June 24, 2008 06:33 pm at 6:33 pm |
  24. Holly

    As a liberal there is no way I could vote for McCain based on his policies, regardless of my feelings towards Barack.

    Dem 08.

    June 24, 2008 06:33 pm at 6:33 pm |
  25. gerry

    So how many mishaps, mistakes and misspokes did Mcbush have today? Has he nuked anyone yet?

    June 24, 2008 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
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