June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. JR

    I'm really glad the Liberal Democrats elected to congress and the Senate ended the war, halted the increasing gas prices, and saved the economy like they promised. All that we need know is Barack Hussein Obama Carter to truly destroy the economy. Vote ObamaCarter! hope for a change back to 1979!

    June 24, 2008 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
  2. Tommy Hussein in St. Louis

    Robert June 24th, 2008 7:40 pm ET

    I am sure he's leading the polls allright. If you look at the polls on AOL John McCain has the lead from 62% to 38%. It just goes to show how liberal CNN can be sometimes with this "I love Obama" attitude. Yeah keep saying your the most trusted name in news too and feeding Americans BS. I just want to ask the people at CNN how many registered voters actually voted on this poll. I bet the poll votes are like a few thousand.


    A post like this, as well as Sandy's up above, show how little some people really know about statistics. No AOL polls or other internet polls are scientific, because they only represent people who go to the website in question and feel strongly enough to respond.

    A scientific poll has to be a random, unbiased sample of the entire population. It is hard to believe, but a small sample of 896 or 1100 of us, as long as they are picked randomly and sought out (i.e., called). rather than responding to an internet poll, really can give us an idea of the direction in which all of us are leaning. It won't be exact, but the probability that the entire population's leaning is radically different than what the poll shows is very small.

    June 24, 2008 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  3. stan

    the TWP voter is not telling the truth, obama is going to get wiped out in november, he is ultra liberal and 20x worse than bush or his types. taxes will be going up and up and up, so get your wallet out,

    June 24, 2008 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  4. The Blind Lady of Justice

    The President is the Chief Executive … the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) … of a business enterprise known as the United States of America. Directing the various operating units of this “company” is what the job requires.

    While the reference to “Commander-in-Chief”, particularly at a time when there is a military conflict underway, gives rise to an important aspect of the job, it is not the majority of the job and it does not necessarily require the majority of the President’s intellectual brainpower. Qualification for the job has little to do with whether or not someone enlisted in the service or was captured and held as a prisoner. Being an excellent president has little to do with any knowledge of current military doctrine & tactics or knowledge of the capabilities of the latest weapon systems. The president hires very capable functional directors for those roles.

    What we want the President to be the “Commander “ of is the VISION for our country, the STRATEGY to achieve the Vision, and the JUDGEMENT and FLEXIBILITY to make the right decisions when the strategy needs to be adjusted. We are not so arrogant to think we will get the Strategy right all the time.

    More than anything, we want a President that will be a good executive MANAGER. The best corporate managers are most effective when they build high performing TEAMS. Therefore, if we want to truly evaluate how well this corporation is going to run, we need to evaluate the CEO’s VISION and his/her JUDGEMENT in selecting talented Senior Managers for our corporation (Cabinet appointees).

    June 24, 2008 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  5. bern

    Thank goodness most Americans understand that Barack is the only real choice. The right wing nuts like James Dobson, and their mindless followers, will try everything to stop progress but it will not work this time. I am sick and tired of folks who can't think for themselves trying to make rules for everybody else.

    June 24, 2008 08:00 pm at 8:00 pm |
  6. kathy


    June 24, 2008 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  7. Scott in Arkansas

    A little early to start counting your chickens. The Republicans will expose Obama for what he is – an ultra liberal with racists and terrorists as friends. He'll be appropriately potrayed as serving Jimmy Carter's second term. All the glitter is about to get knocked off and there won't be anywhere to go but down. There just might be a landslide come November but I doubt many of you will like it.


    June 24, 2008 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  8. Marj,Paso Robles, Cal

    BO is a disgrace.

    June 24, 2008 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  9. interesting

    Newsweek and LA times appear to be in the tank for Obama.

    Where is fair analysis. No where.

    June 24, 2008 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  10. Bob

    The story says that unless the opponent is a sitting Republican President, a lead this big means the person that is ahead wins in November. Congratulations, President Obama!

    June 24, 2008 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  11. Brian Knoxville TN

    These numbers can't last. Fear trumps faith every time in this country. Morons outnumber the rest of us 3-1. How many people voted for Bush.....twice! Our nation has dumbed down so far that we're the laughing stock of the third world. We're no longer the U.S., we're a subsidy of Halliburton and Exxon. And the cattle just moo and take the bullet.

    June 24, 2008 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  12. James Boyd, Dover, DE

    I love when Republicans question our support for Barak. After 8 years of that idiot in the White House that they put there, it is amusing to watch them squirm. How dare they question OUR judgement! Unbelievable, their stupidity!

    June 24, 2008 08:04 pm at 8:04 pm |
  13. Toot

    I wonder who they are asking? He cannot even think for himself let alone try to run a country!!
    No Obama!!

    June 24, 2008 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  14. Steve

    Now we're cooking. Folks are finally coming around. President Obama has a nice ring to it.

    June 24, 2008 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  15. Brendan H., San Antonio, TX

    This is one time we can rely on a poll, because Karl Rove isn't in the employ of the RNC – not yet anyway.

    Get ready for a repeat of the slaughter of 1996.

    McCain – 2008 = Dole – 1996.

    The RNC is letting McCain run, like they "allowed" Dole to finally have the nomination, so they can produce a sacrificial lamb not likely to come back later and gum up future nominee business.

    The country is fed-up with the GOP!!!

    And to those who say Obama is inexperienced, what vast cacophony of experience did fearless "Jet-Pilot" bring to the table in 2000?!?!?!

    And staying in Iraq is not "protecting" the country!!!

    June 24, 2008 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  16. WISDOM

    One thing I don't understand about the Media:

    Why is the comments of Mr. Black has such a short live? If comments like this were made by Rev. Wright, would it still be same? I wonder....

    I really worry about the mindset of those GOP, especially those neo-cons...What could be their contingency plan to continue their power stream? Could it be something like Mr. black mentioned about? Hmmm....I wonder...

    I wonder if Gore took the presidency as he really deserved, what could have been different? I think about 9/11... If he were the president in 2001, could the 9/11 have been prevented? Well, the chances could have been much higher I think because he was Veep for 8 years after all. I just hope that God will not let bad things happen this time.

    I really hope that God will let us have a good leader who will save us from all those troubles we are facing these days.

    Wake up conservatives! It's time to be united under common purpose.
    If you are a true believer in God and His teaching, you will know what is our common purpose. Love each other and keep world peace!

    June 24, 2008 08:06 pm at 8:06 pm |
  17. Winthorp

    Oh no! Obama Doesn't have experience leading the country!! Wait a minute, how does one get experience without actually >gasp< BECOMING PRESIDENT?!? Maybe someday you'll realize that argument is moot, and will start focusing on the big issues.

    June 24, 2008 08:08 pm at 8:08 pm |
  18. Julie

    In response to...
    john June 24th, 2008 7:37 pm ET

    You people need a reality check what do you know about Obama, What is his change,Hope for what. Just because you can read a speach doesn't mean you can think on your feet and when Barak gets put to the test he stutters says Ah a lot and doesn't say a lot. Be carefull of the change you want because it ain't going to be the change you get.

    Ex Democrat

    Hey Ex – some of us do actually independently research candidates. He has authored two books about his personal life – that provides some insight. Checking his voting record and consistency on issues isn't hard to do. I'm not basing my vote on a personality – you know, like folks did with GW Bush – they thought he'd be a great guy to have a beer with – and look at the result. I've done my research Ex – and I"m sure many others have as well. You're overbearing cynicism doesn't become you. It's obvious that this country can't afford another C- legacy student who can't form a complete sentence without a telleprompter – oh wait, McCain is horribly with the teleprompter, hmmm... Obama will never be a verbal oopfh the caliber of bush and mccain – his responses are well considered – he actually is thinking on his feet.

    June 24, 2008 08:09 pm at 8:09 pm |
  19. kim hussein taylor portland, oregon

    "But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said."

    oh come on, Mr. Buzzkill, let us enjoy the beauty of the moment!!!!

    the neocon crypt keeper is going down.....

    June 24, 2008 08:09 pm at 8:09 pm |
  20. Jules

    This is not about Obama. Some posters are right, we have to roll up our sleeves and start working. We can't sit on the sidelines and pray that he stays ahead, or wins in November. He's going to travel to 50 states. Make sure you do your part when he gets to your state or before he even gets to your state.

    This is not a Hillary Clinton "Wait For Super Tuesday And Declare Victory Campaign". In Barack's campaign, you have to work, work, work toward all 50 states. So be proud of Barack, but remember we need to work to stay ahead.

    Remember Obama 08, 12

    June 24, 2008 08:11 pm at 8:11 pm |
  21. James Boyd, Dover, DE

    Sounds like Chris is describing Bush! LOL

    "All you foolish Obamabots are going to get what you wished for … and, then this country is going to be led into the crapper, by your false prophet who is inexperienced, and in way over his head. Thanks for all your lame slogans and empty catch phrases. You obviously can not tell the difference between style and substance".

    June 24, 2008 08:11 pm at 8:11 pm |
  22. JANET

    This is great news and I hope his lead continues and we have a landslide victory in November. I am excited about Obama's idealogy and his plans for change. It's unfortuanate that so many people are still looking at skin color instead of character he is equally qualified as any other person in this race and you don't know anymore about those candidates as you do Obama therefore the rhetoric " that we don't even know him" is just that rhetoric. God is in control and he is doing a NEW THING pay very close attention.

    June 24, 2008 08:12 pm at 8:12 pm |
  23. Derek in Seattle

    I think the dems are going to have the presidency for the next 16 years at least. Not to mention the senate and eventualy the Supreme Court after some of those old republican fogeys kick the bucket(s). Clinton will not be a spring chicken in 2016, but if she ran she's still be 4 years younger than McLame and obviously have a clear shot at it.

    OBAMA '08 '12
    CLINTON '16 '20.... ok, maybe not '20, but ya never know.

    June 24, 2008 08:13 pm at 8:13 pm |
  24. nannie bouroughs, Kenosha, WI

    The only poll that really matters is the voters poll on November 4, 2008; by that time Senator Obama will be old toast.... and that, whether you Obamnations like it or not...

    June 24, 2008 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  25. km

    Kerry was up by this amount in the spring too.

    June 24, 2008 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
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