June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Zagazaw

    All you stupid people keep asking what do we know about Obama, not because you don't know anything about Obama, because you are blind by your own ignorrance, does not mean other people don't know about the good He has done and will continue to do.

    June 24, 2008 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  2. tigerakabj

    This is alright, but the polls that really matter will be in Nov.

    Either way, it will be an Obama landslide.

    June 24, 2008 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  3. adamT

    John-john, the american people has had an 8 year reality check(bounced for insufficient funds), its time to move on. The republican party has had and missed its opportunity to represent the american people as a whole and FAILED, THERE IS YOUR REALITY CHECK!!!! The american people has had enough of not being represented and the voices falling on deaf ears, TIME FOR SOMETHING NEW and that just dont spell republican for the whitehouse!!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 08:15 pm at 8:15 pm |
  4. JAY Los Angeles

    There is no doubt about it, that Obama will pull ahead in double digit numbers, and maintain at least 10 points into the GE, my concern now is in the local and state elections.

    Local government is in the fire from the failed policies of the past eight years, state government is also in trouble, because they no longer represent the will of the people, there are going to be some major challenges to get representation that are in the trenchs with Americans.

    Taking back our country 2008

    June 24, 2008 08:15 pm at 8:15 pm |
  5. Ron

    When will Hillary put an end to her supporters nonsence and BITTERness. Also Bill needs to endorse Obama and quit acting like a child. Obama does not need his help. Look what it did for Hillary.

    Obama 08

    June 24, 2008 08:17 pm at 8:17 pm |
  6. Pepou

    I have something for you TX GOP. The reason you and McSame will lose this election big is because your dirty tactics do not work. People in this country are tired of them and they are a lot more clever than you think.

    June 24, 2008 08:18 pm at 8:18 pm |
  7. Pat from Chicago

    Some of the posts are right, June polls mean nothing.

    What does mean something is the statements of the candidates themselves. McCain believes in the failed policies of the last eight years. We as a nation have already "been lead to the crapper" (as Chris said). We need to move in a different direction and take care of our problems at home, not spending billions in Iraq. Just think what we could have done for this country with these funds. If you want to go with experience in government, nobody had more experience than Cheney and Rumsfeld and look at how badly they have screwed everything up.

    I say it is time to go is a positive new direction.

    Obama in 08 and 12

    June 24, 2008 08:18 pm at 8:18 pm |
  8. David

    Polls mean nothing. Popular vote means nothing. All that matters is the Electoral College. Nothing else matters. The way you win is to win individual states...and there are ALOT of RED states in this nation. I will do my part in seeing my state goes BLUE, but the reality is this election will be very, very close.

    June 24, 2008 08:19 pm at 8:19 pm |
  9. WML

    write in hillary. not a whiner but someone who sees what obama truly is and knows what mccain isn't.

    June 24, 2008 08:19 pm at 8:19 pm |
  10. seanm

    Once McCain and Obama go head to head in a discussion of ideas, Obama is going to crush him. McCain is spouting off policy ideas from 30 years ago. Obama has more current and relevant ideas. Go Obama!

    June 24, 2008 08:19 pm at 8:19 pm |
  11. Waiting for the change

    McCain cites E-Bay as an example of a new kind of business model for America to compete in the world. This demonstrates a shockingly simplistic and naive idea of what is needed for America to compete. He doesn't understand in the world we are moving into.

    June 24, 2008 08:20 pm at 8:20 pm |
  12. JFK

    I would not put too much emphasis into polls. I won't be voting for Obama so I am not worried about so called leads. Other polls have them at about even. God help us with either of these two win anyways. I am writing Hillarys name in on the ballot in November!

    June 24, 2008 08:20 pm at 8:20 pm |
  13. Alex M

    Obama all the way baby!

    June 24, 2008 08:22 pm at 8:22 pm |
  14. Hate to break it to you

    That's great, but it's still early.

    OBAMA 08

    June 24, 2008 08:22 pm at 8:22 pm |
  15. Dems be dopes

    "Change we can believe in!"

    The only change Obama wants is the change in your pockets,,,,and then some.

    June 24, 2008 08:23 pm at 8:23 pm |
  16. Can you say ouch?!!

    My dog could win the election this year if you put him against a Republican. I went to the gas station, then the food store today. Double sticker shock. Nobody’s doing anything about it! And I’m not a poor person; I don’t see how lower middle income people make it anymore. SOMETHING better change before we all go down the tubes!!

    June 24, 2008 08:23 pm at 8:23 pm |
  17. teri

    There is hope at last. Oh, my, hope at last. Hope for peace. Hope for sanity. Hope for a greater tomorrow. Hope for Earth's survival. Hopes for a leader with a more evolved level of consciousness, and a greater enlightenment to carry America forward into this century. Oh, my goodness, thank God, hope at last. Love, love Obama!

    June 24, 2008 08:24 pm at 8:24 pm |
  18. mcshmae

    yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa . obama all the way !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 08:25 pm at 8:25 pm |
  19. Stan(NC)

    Why is it that when Obama is losing in a poll his supporters say, "So what?" but when he's leading they say, "Yeah, look at us!".

    You're the joke of 2008.

    June 24, 2008 08:27 pm at 8:27 pm |
  20. wiser

    Change we don’t believe in! Senator Obama changes his ideas as soon as it helps his poll numbers. Oh I'm sorry, they are not his ideas the good ideas belong to Senator Clinton.

    NOBAMA! This is one Democrat for McCain.

    June 24, 2008 08:27 pm at 8:27 pm |
  21. Susan from Scotts Valley

    It's very encouraging but we can't get complacent. We need to work hard from now through November.

    And to all of you women who are so angry that you are going to vote for McCain or write Hillary's name in or stay home (which is just the same as voting for McCain), please know that your action will mean that we stay the course in Iraq, we risk conservative judges who will have us living in the 50s again, that we'll have to wait AT LEAST four more years to solve the health care crisis in this country or to have a taxation system that doesn't benefit the wealthy. That's what you're voting for. Not just to hopefully get Hillary elected in 2012. Hillary was awesome...she was a trailblazer for all women on many fronts but now we must vote her policies not our anger.


    June 24, 2008 08:29 pm at 8:29 pm |
  22. to all obama haters

    change is going to come, yes it will...

    June 24, 2008 08:30 pm at 8:30 pm |
  23. Hate to break it to you

    Just wanted to say, to Obama supporters, those Hillary supporters that say they are voting for McCain, remember true their are many of them, but not all 18 million are going to swing his way. Like I said, it's still early, but if he's keeps this up, I wouldn't loose much sleep to losing to McFlipFlop, the no good son of a coot McBush twin. Sorry, I told myself I was going to be civilized, but couldn't help it.

    Oh, welcome back Hillary, even though I still didn't like your tactics there in the end of the primary, but I'm looking at the best side of you and that is your a fighter and Obama is going to need you to go up against McCain.

    OBAMA 08

    June 24, 2008 08:30 pm at 8:30 pm |
  24. Joyce

    Yes we can and we sure need a change from the likes of McBush and company!!!! Go Obama Go!!

    June 24, 2008 08:31 pm at 8:31 pm |
  25. Makeshift

    Look at all the paid rethuglican trolls pretending to be vexxed Hillary supporters. Ignore them. Democrats and Independents are united behind a man of substance, Barack Obama.

    June 24, 2008 08:33 pm at 8:33 pm |
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