June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Noelle

    I will be voting for Barack, and I can't wait. This is the most exciting campaign I've ever participated in, and I've been voting since Richard Nixon. If November is anything like I think it will be, I'm praying for a wonderful night.

    Finally, the American people are going to the dance. It's going to be a great night.

    June 24, 2008 08:34 pm at 8:34 pm |
  2. McCain=the draft

    Like him or not, Obama is the only one who can shake-up Washingotn.
    And it needs a good shaking!!
    It sure won't happen with Washington entrenched McCain.

    June 24, 2008 08:34 pm at 8:34 pm |
  3. Keep up the good work!

    That's Great. Keep up the good work!

    June 24, 2008 08:35 pm at 8:35 pm |
  4. Sharon in Florida

    Funny how you keep posting the poll results and not posting the link for people to go be a part of that polling. Give us all the link so we can include ourselves in that count.

    June 24, 2008 08:35 pm at 8:35 pm |
  5. TexasLady

    The world only loves obama because he won't stand up and protect America. He'll tax and tax and tax and tax and tax...and still have no real foreign policy.

    June 24, 2008 08:36 pm at 8:36 pm |
  6. Tamera

    I would love to get a picture of Sean Hannity's face when Barack wins this election. He has worked so hard to discredit Obama. I wonder if FN gives Sean overtime for making up lies. He'll be so disappointed, he may just cry–that would be just fine with me.

    Obama 08

    June 24, 2008 08:37 pm at 8:37 pm |
  7. Blayze Kohime

    I thought McCain would do a lot better versus Obama, but the McCain campaign has been making so many critical errors that you almost have to feel sorry for them.

    June 24, 2008 08:37 pm at 8:37 pm |
  8. Allen

    Hey Chris – I think this country has already been led into the crapper. Go shrivel up someplace like all of the other geezers – It's time you and your kind move out of the way and let modern thought run our country.

    We will build a new nation – one that acts as a chief member of a global community, not a playground bully.

    June 24, 2008 08:37 pm at 8:37 pm |
  9. Sharon in Florida

    Very funny, is this most Americans again?
    Quote: Interviewed 1,233 adults including 1,115 registered voters by telephone

    June 24, 2008 08:37 pm at 8:37 pm |
  10. Yankee1031

    "My dog could win the election this year if you put him against a Republican."
    ~Can you say ouch?!!
    June 24th, 2008 8:23 pm ET


    Ironically, Obama and your dog have equal experience as a leader.

    June 24, 2008 08:38 pm at 8:38 pm |
  11. William

    Blah blah blah, Hillary's better. Whine, whine, whine, slander, slander, slander. Sorry Clintonistas, you're so 3 weeks ago. McCain has no chance in this race either.

    Obama '08, because America can't afford a "gas tax holiday". We've been on a holiday from reason and fiscal responsibility for the last 8 years!

    June 24, 2008 08:38 pm at 8:38 pm |
  12. carlo

    How can any of you say that people were dumb enough to vote for Bush twice, yet you are supporting McCain, a man who is in lock step with Bush, and call people dumb for supporting a guy who is the opposite of Bush? Makes no sense.

    Obama may not be perfect (no one is), but I'm willing to throw my support behind him because I believe that he means well, is highly intelligent, can admit when he doesn't know something, and follows the most important biblical principle-he cares for the "least of these".

    June 24, 2008 08:39 pm at 8:39 pm |
  13. seah

    With the koolaide kids instructed to run around the internet and have a linkable page to all polls in obama site. They daily do the polls, Many said if the empty cookies they can vote more than once. If they use proxies more.

    So Polls mean nothing.

    June 24, 2008 08:39 pm at 8:39 pm |
  14. Independent Voter

    The best government is divided government.

    Independents are foolish to not vote for McCain as the Dems will increase their control of the House, Senate and Courts.

    In the 1st GWB term the Reps controlled all 3 branches – how well did that go?

    Vote for checks and balances.

    June 24, 2008 08:39 pm at 8:39 pm |
  15. yellowdog john

    Keep your eyes on the daily tracking polls, not in the clouds.

    June 24, 2008 08:39 pm at 8:39 pm |
  16. NickNas

    Well I guess the Dr. NO Attack will have to be revised. They will be back tomorrow with another I am sure.

    It must be TOUGH to be a Puma or McSame lover right now. NOTHING the say is helping them.

    June 24, 2008 08:40 pm at 8:40 pm |
  17. Christian

    Sorry, Republicans and Clinton-maniacs. Senator Obama is not Dukakis. He's not John Kerry. And he's not Al Gore. Take even a cursory look at voter turnout in the primaries and money contributed to his campaign and you'll see he has dwarfed those liberal losers.

    You can live in denial all you want but America will elect Barack Obama the next President and he will drag you kicking and screaming to a better future.

    June 24, 2008 08:40 pm at 8:40 pm |
  18. SD Patriot

    Less we forget that years and years of Washington experience does NOT make a good President. The Presidency is NOT a lifetime achievement award! A change in the culture and mindset of Washington is what this Country needs, not the same old "experienced" people rehashing the same old failed policies and calling it a different name.

    Obama '08

    June 24, 2008 08:41 pm at 8:41 pm |
  19. Greg


    What are you people thinking?? Are you even thinking??

    June 24, 2008 08:41 pm at 8:41 pm |
  20. MarkieBee

    Brenda28 at 7:39 p.m., what do you know about McCain's experience? Ever heard of the Keating 5? Was McCain the first, second, third, fourth or fifth on of the Keating 5. I forgot. Since you know so much about McCain, can you tell me which one he was? I dunno, could McCain's near indictment over one of the nation's worst financial scandals have anything to do with him swinging so far that he's now considered a campaign finance guru. Kind of funny, like a drunk driver going to work of MADD, no ha-ha funny mind you. So, Brenda, if I ask you to list McCain's experience, how long will it take you list his service in the Navy and that he was a prisoner of war? Two, maybe three, nanoseconds?

    June 24, 2008 08:42 pm at 8:42 pm |
  21. Marie in California

    Obama will crash and burn before November. Thank goodness. And I never trust Newsweek polls.....they are in the tank with Obama. Also, it seems I read somewhere recently that Kerry had a 14% lead over GWB in 2004, and still went down in flames.

    Everyone blames the Republicans for the current hard times, but the last I heard the Democratic congress was only receiving a 6% favorability rating.....much lower than even Bush.

    Personally, I really don't want the kind of "change" that Obama represents. And the way I see it......poor people have been voting for Democrats for decades now. And guess what? They're still poor.

    Was strong for Hillary.....but now solidly for McCain 2008!

    June 24, 2008 08:43 pm at 8:43 pm |
  22. Texas birn

    go obama 08

    i support you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    change you can believe in.

    June 24, 2008 08:44 pm at 8:44 pm |
  23. nate

    Find one poll that has McCain ahead or even tied. ONE. We are coming and we cannot be stopped. // Obama 08.

    June 24, 2008 08:45 pm at 8:45 pm |
  24. David

    I think its hillarious on how many people were into bashing Obama for what he believes in... But yet the same people that were bashing him are the people now voting for him in this fake election leading up to the general election.

    June 24, 2008 08:45 pm at 8:45 pm |
  25. Trisha, Monsey NY

    Way to go Dems, thank God for wisdom in this country finally!

    June 24, 2008 08:45 pm at 8:45 pm |
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