June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Buh-bye

    The begining of the end.

    June 24, 2008 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  2. Michelle

    Obama = Dukakis

    June 24, 2008 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  3. Debby

    Kerry had a 14 point lead over Bush so this doesn't mean anything right now. Look where the poll was taken California.

    June 24, 2008 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  4. Ian

    Obama needs to keep on his toes. Dukakis lost his lead because he became complacent.

    June 24, 2008 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  5. Matthew

    like your thinking Ardnuas!

    June 24, 2008 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  6. Buh-bye

    And this poll is with out Hillary. Seems Obama has what it takes with out her, now doesn't it.

    June 24, 2008 06:35 pm at 6:35 pm |
  7. Citizen

    It has to be stated that by Labor Day all the major polls will show Obama with a 15%-20% point lead. If McCain starts acting nutty, then the lead will jump up to 25% points. The only drama left in this campaign is whether McCain will be able to stop Obama from winning Arizona.

    June 24, 2008 06:35 pm at 6:35 pm |
  8. Rick FL

    Go Obama!!!!! We are behind you all the way!

    Si se puede!

    June 24, 2008 06:35 pm at 6:35 pm |
  9. Doris,Memphis,TN

    This is great news for America!
    Change we can believe in.

    June 24, 2008 06:35 pm at 6:35 pm |
  10. Chris from NY

    The historical analysis may be true but if Obama's number goes over 50%, he will win the election unless something big happens. I am just concerned he hasn't moved up to that number yet except for the one News Week had last weekend.

    June 24, 2008 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  11. ^^^ YEAH RIGHT

    Democrat for McCain, haha. They can paint Obama as the antichrist, but really, that is still better than McCain.

    June 24, 2008 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  12. John, Las Vegas, NV

    All you who bash McCain because of his age. Look in the mirror. Your time is coming

    June 24, 2008 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  13. Hillary Next

    Dead horse or a donkey; take your pick.

    June 24, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  14. alejandro

    thank you god, as american we cannot afford, another third Mac bush term, that could be a disaster, republicans are out of touch with the people. I hope obama become the next presiden of usa.

    June 24, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  15. WE ARE ONE

    TO Darth Vadik,ca june24th,2008 6:27 pm ET

    Your comment is very funny , i can't stop laughing.

    June 24, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  16. Darth Vadik, CA

    Its OK,
    Hillary can be the VP,
    The second strongest VP ever,
    after the Prince of darkness himself,

    Dick Cheney.

    June 24, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  17. Belle1

    Quit reporting nonsense and VET the candidates!

    June 24, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  18. Brandon Hillary Democrat for Mc Cain

    Mondale Dukakis and even Kerry had all been in the lead during the summers of there prospective campaigns.....

    June 24, 2008 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  19. Deb,KS

    Obama is just another blood sucking politician. At least McCain served his country, that's more then I can say for Hessin Obama. I will vote for McCain. I am so disappointed that the Clinton's would even think about backing such a person. Never.

    June 24, 2008 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  20. Haloalani

    Obama just has to drill the mis-steps of McCain to maintain this lead.

    June 24, 2008 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  21. Monica for Obama in Indiana

    Clarisse, get over it. He is not going to choose her. What you and other Hillary supporters should do is help to retire her big debt.
    She let you all help her get in this mess, then you should help her get out!

    Meanwhile the rest of us Obama's supporters will continue to send in our small amounts to insure the Presidency of 2009

    June 24, 2008 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  22. Word Smith

    One word: Landslide!!!

    Obama ALL the way!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  23. Enlightened Voter

    Joe Reed and Republican for Obama – you two are enlightened voters! People like you will move this country forward because of your opened minded enlightened perspective.

    June 24, 2008 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  24. Schalaine Ellisor

    Yes we can! What great news. Watch carefully, the smear attacks will begin. I am absolutely certain they will not work this time. America, it's our time. Time to step up with real answers for the American people and NOT the ridiculous "gimmicks" of McSame.

    Obama '08 & '12

    June 24, 2008 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  25. saga for Obama

    brandon...really if they had anything "on" Obama trust they would have used it!!! they said he would never win the primary either. the lead will go and he will win.
    Mccain's ad visors are head ENRON folk... remember that while you fill up your gas tank.

    Mccain wants to drill off shore,, destroying our coast line while providing no relief to Americans.

    Mccain wants to stay in Iraq for another 100 years spending Billions while Americans are loosing their homes.

    now Bush wants to meet with Iran Pres... after throwing daggers at Obama for wanting to do it first...FLIP FLOP REPUBS.

    mccain said he didn't "love" America until he was a pow....

    mccain will say anything he thinks you want to hear to get a vote yet mean nothing he says...immigration, energy, stupid gas tax holiday, 300 mill for a battery...now that's big spending when Americans are in a recession/depression.

    Obama has to win because WE CAN NOT AFFORD ANOTHER BUSH TERM.

    June 24, 2008 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
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