June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Jude

    Folks its June!!! Not November!!! Be Happy and Stay Alert!!! OB for pres 08

    June 24, 2008 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  2. Anita from Arizona

    Great news to hear. As long as Obama keeps laying out his policies for change, he's got it in the bag.

    June 24, 2008 06:42 pm at 6:42 pm |
  3. Yes

    Double delicious. We love it.

    June 24, 2008 06:42 pm at 6:42 pm |
  4. Glenn

    Let's see now, McCain calls Obama Dr. No. Interestingly enough, the voters are calling Obama "Dr. Yes We Can!" McCain is a loser!

    June 24, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  5. Obama

    CNN – I am surprised that you are not saying Obama is ahead by triple digits – what bull. For the last eight years every time I would see Bush on TV I would change the channel – looks like I will be doing the same with Obama if he gets in. What a joke

    June 24, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  6. Jackie

    As part of the 11% that won't be voting for Obama....I find a it a little sickening to watch the worse CNN offenders...who continued to bash Clinton every inch of the way....giving some sort of analysis of the chances of Hillary Clinton in the future. If elections are swayed by the media then this one was swayed by the consistent bias of stations like yours.

    Look guys no one that I know has come around to Obama...most are not voting at all...

    And as we go into Nov with Obama receiving unprecedented pushing from the press and the negative stories and slant against McCain I have to ask you....Do ya'll remember what it's like to be a journalist?

    June 24, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  7. Franky

    Now we can gamble!!! (Rolling the dice).......LOL!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  8. Khalid

    I am glad to hear that only 11% of Hillary supporters won't support Obama. Hopefully we can all move together to change the country. And, please, respect the both candidates and supporters of both candidates. Everybody worked hard. Let this primary be known for its historic precident and not the bitterness and rancor of a party divided. Good luck everybody.

    June 24, 2008 06:44 pm at 6:44 pm |
  9. Ben,Pa

    Yes he can!

    June 24, 2008 06:44 pm at 6:44 pm |
  10. Paulette, Cincinnati, Ohio

    Obama is sick...sick....sick....and did I mention a liar. McCain '08 ' 12 or Clinton '12

    June 24, 2008 06:45 pm at 6:45 pm |
  11. Perusing-through

    Sounds good, , , but I would like to see a third poll before I loosen my collar. Newsweek poll indicated 15% lead and now LA Times reporting 12%. Need just one more poll with nice numbers to lock it in.

    June 24, 2008 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  12. Salaam, Lawrence KS

    Obama is on the right way to help the American people to retake the White House.

    June 24, 2008 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  13. JeffRob

    Senator Barack Obama has to NOT choose Senator Hillary Clinton as his VP in order to win the White House.

    June 24, 2008 06:48 pm at 6:48 pm |
  14. Nova from NV

    Many democrats who silently support the Maverick are not willing to answer the polls because of fear of being labeled a racist. The polls do not factor this in. When the country wakes up to a new President McCain, America will realize this.

    June 24, 2008 06:48 pm at 6:48 pm |
  15. James, Redlands, CA

    I don't believe these numbers. They are too large. I believe he is ahead but so was Bradley in CA. That is to say that I don't believe everyone who said they will vote for him will do so.

    On the other hand, these numbers show that the people are tired of the same old thing. They do want a change.

    The fact that Obama's lead increases with 3rd party candidates shows the level of dissatisfaction that republicans and independants have with McCain as the candidate.

    June 24, 2008 06:48 pm at 6:48 pm |
  16. malabar

    Hillary Clinton is the best thing that ever happened to this country.

    June 24, 2008 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
  17. aaron from minneapolis

    I fear a terrorist attack on U.S. soil before November. God knows I hope I'm wrong but I'll put nothing past the GOP, McCain the war mongerer and the U.S. companies that profit off of war. Or the oil companies that will continue to make billions of dollars while destroying the planet for our children because McCain is NOT an environmentalist. Never has, never will.

    June 24, 2008 06:51 pm at 6:51 pm |
  18. Michael

    This is fabulous news...If anyone has a chance find a broadcast of his town hall meeting in Nevada from today, just brilliant. This is a man that I will be proud to call "my President", this is the first time in my adult life that I'll be excited to vote! Can't wait to watch Obama take the oath of office!

    June 24, 2008 06:52 pm at 6:52 pm |
  19. David Illinois

    Steve, you are so right. June polls do mean squat. This race will get nasty the closer we get to November. The Republicans will not go without a huge fight and those that are still mad at Obama are not yet "healed" enough to vote for him. Wait for the swift boaters.

    June 24, 2008 06:53 pm at 6:53 pm |
  20. Dem

    Clarisse Miglietti June 24th, 2008 6:31 pm ET

    Senator Barack Obama has to chose Senator Hillary Clinton as his VP in order to win the White House.

    He can't pick Hillary as his running mate. With a white person on his ticket he can no longer play the race card.

    June 24, 2008 06:53 pm at 6:53 pm |
  21. slack

    obama has the wost energy policy ever. he's such a do nothing with nothing to show. clueless.

    June 24, 2008 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  22. june

    Clarisse, do you even read the articles? from these polls, Obama could pick Whitney Houston as his VP and still beat McCain by 5% at least

    June 24, 2008 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  23. Optimus Prime

    Autobots, welcome our newest and most powerful ally in the fight for good on earth against the decept-republicons. His name is Barack Obama but we will call him Obamanation!

    June 24, 2008 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  24. David Goldman for OBAMA





    June 24, 2008 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  25. Shawn

    McSame is nothing good for this Country. Go Obama!

    June 24, 2008 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
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