June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
13 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Candy - West Virginia

    John Mcwar's Experience says bomb Iran, don't talk to them. Well just today gwb said that the US will be setting up a Iran Diplomatic office in Iran to open up talks. And this is what John MCwar's keeps pounding Obama on. I will take Obama's judgment any day over mcwar's so called 'experience'.

    June 24, 2008 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  2. Perusing-through

    P.S. . . . . Good news. But the bad news is that numbers like these will only fuel more GOP lies, negative attacks and put "3rd-Term McSame's" smear campaign in hyper-overdrive.

    June 24, 2008 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  3. Mimi De La Cruz for OBAMA

    WE WANT PEACE. & ECONOMIC STABILITY.

    WE WANT OUR LEADERS TO STOP

    PROSTITUTING THIS NATION TO

    THEIR GREEDY LOBBYISTS.

    June 24, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  4. Independent

    And.... how many of those people polled told the truth?

    June 24, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  5. FRED, ATLANTA, GA

    HEY PAULETTE, so Hillary or Mccain has NEVER LIED about anything HUH??? I tell you it's sad that hillary has supporters like you just walking around BLIND!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  6. JK

    John McCain does not stand a chance. Maybe if the republicans would get new talent, instead of the old guy maybe they would be ahead. I DO NOT want someone who will be very very very very old in the White House. McCain represents the past Obama represents the future.

    June 24, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  7. bo

    does anyone else here not realize that obama is running on the same platform as bush did in 2000? change, unity, has no experience, people only voted for him cuz he was "likeable."

    we already voted the dems into congress over the war and what have they done for us? how long are you going to let them PROFIT OFF OF THIS WAR??? mccain is a far cry from bush.

    June 24, 2008 06:59 pm at 6:59 pm |
  8. Alex

    In my opinion Obama needs to keep his campaign strong and fight rep smears. It is possible the polls will average to 10 point lead in next few weeks and slightly drop depending what Obama does... I don't really like national polls, I am more for state polls. In the primaries a lot of them held up...

    June 24, 2008 06:59 pm at 6:59 pm |
  9. Independent for Obama

    If McCain thinks the well skilled Obama is going to lighten up and let McCain creep his way back into contention, he is sorely mistaken.

    Obama is well funded, energetic, charismatic, smart, funny, and has an excellent campaign team.

    McCain doesn't have a prayer.

    June 24, 2008 06:59 pm at 6:59 pm |
  10. Rashawn the leftist like President Obama

    The election is his to lose! As long as he does not make the same rookie mistakes he made during the primaries, then he will be fine. People will realize that he is the right choice for America.....

    June 24, 2008 06:59 pm at 6:59 pm |
  11. bo

    umm...does anyone else here not realize that obama is running on the same platform as bush did in 2000? change, unity, has no experience, people only voted for him cuz he was "likeable."

    we already voted the dems into congress over the war and what have they done for us? how long are you going to let them PROFIT OFF OF THIS WAR??? mccain is a far cry from bush.

    June 24, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  12. Archie H,

    Don't we hear this same old poll game( double digit lead) every election then it winds up being so wrong as to be ridiculous!

    June 24, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  13. Kevin McDunn

    I wasn't a fan of Hillary's presidential run, but I do think she'd be a decent addition to the Supreme Court.

    June 24, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  14. Reggie, TX

    Paulette, why all of the hate for Obama when I thought Obama supporters were suppose to be the mean ones. I like this news. It shows Americans aren't buying into McCain's gimmicks, the GOP lies about Obama, and PUMA crap. I like the sound of PRESIDENT BARACK H. OBAMA. Yes We Can!!!!

    OBAMA '08

    June 24, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  15. Brian

    McCain should NOT be underestimated once he is behind in th polls he can reverse his positions again like he has done many times before.

    Conservatives for Barr!

    June 24, 2008 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
  16. dems be dopes

    CNN unbiased reporting...

    Obama...good

    McCain.....bad

    Does anyone know what he will change, how he will change it, and how he will pay for it?

    He is kind of short on specifics..............

    June 24, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  17. aware

    The June bloom will have faded by Fall. So, get over it Obama myth lovers! 🙂

    Don't vote for the extreme far-left wing nut as a means of revenge.

    America will go down the tubes with this "beyond belief" arrogant-elitist, power-hungry and out of touch with reality candidate. 🙁

    June 24, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  18. 58 old white ladies for OBAMA

    WE NEED AN ECONOMIC TURN AROUND

    NOT WAR, FEAR MONGERING & BREAD LINES.

    JUST IMAGINE IF KEPT SPENDING THE BILLION

    DOLLARS A DAY FOR ANOTHER FOUR YEARS

    OUT OF THE 100 MCMOULD WANTS. THEN

    IMAGINE IF WE SPENT THAT BILLION ON OUR NATION,

    FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS, WHERE WE WOULD BE,

    A HECK OF A LOTT BETTER.

    June 24, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  19. BROOKLYN

    We would LOVE to know what polls your reading??? Are these polls that (once again) CNN has made up???

    I think that you have forgot one thing... Most of the Clinton supporters will NEVER vote for Obama. EVER...

    June 24, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  20. Rose

    Does anyone really believe these polls. A lot can happen over the next few months. Obama is getting a little hot headed lately and he is sounding more and more like a preacher in his speeches, there are an awful lot of people who will not, under any circumstances, vote for Obama. I sure don't want his racist wife in the peoples White House, she has used the term "whitey" too often. Don't people wonder why the Obama campaign won't release her Princeton thesis until the day after the election??

    June 24, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  21. David Goldman for OBAMA

    WE GOT OURSELVES A GREAT CEO.

    LETS MAKE SURE WE KEEP HIM.

    JUST IMAGINE WHICH WOULD YOU

    WANT RUNNING YOUR TRILLION DOLLAR CO.,

    MCMOULD OR OBAMA. NOT MUCH TO THINK ABOUT.

    June 24, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  22. Not Obama

    So what. The Times/Bloomberg Poll, interviewed 1,115 registered voters across the nation June 19-23. This hardly represents the entire nation. If you want to see an average of the polls go to Real Clear Politics website. The RCP average is 7.5. for Obama.

    June 24, 2008 07:05 pm at 7:05 pm |
  23. Jason, Texas

    YEAH!!! You go Obama! My yard sign is going up once I get it!

    June 24, 2008 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |
  24. Nick - Arlington, VA

    Brandon Hillary Democrat for Mc Cain June 24th, 2008 6:28 pm ET

    Obama will be the next Dukakis once the material Clinton had on him but could not use comes to light…….

    The Republicans will find it…no doubt about lol
    ----------------------------------
    -o yea? what evidence....stop creating rumor you moron.

    June 24, 2008 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
  25. Linda31

    And the lead will continue to grow the closer it gets to the election.

    June 24, 2008 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
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