June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
13 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. boogieman

    When Obama addresses the Democratic National Convention, he should open up with a big "thank you" to the one person who has made a Democratic landslide possible. The one person who almost single-handedly ended the era of Republican rule.

    "Ladies and gentlemen, let's have a big round of applause for George Bush!"

    June 24, 2008 07:09 pm at 7:09 pm |
  2. Brennan - Seattle, WA

    Great!!!!!!!!

    And I don't care if the lead shrinks as long as it is a lead. A win is a win and Obama is just what this country needs. God Bless America

    June 24, 2008 07:09 pm at 7:09 pm |
  3. Wayne

    Polls are snap shots in time and at this time Obama is way, way ahead of old man McCain. So, the question is what will change between now and NOvember. The answer is nothing. McCain is still a pro war, pro taxcut for the rich Republican who is not very articulate and not good at speaking. Kinda of reminds me of Bush.

    That being said, McCain has little to no chance of winning in November. Obama would need an Elliot Spitzer size scandal for that to happen.

    June 24, 2008 07:09 pm at 7:09 pm |
  4. FactCheck

    > Senator Barack Obama has to chose Senator Hillary Clinton as his
    > VP in order to win the White House.

    Umm... did ya' even bother to READ the article? He has a double digit lead *without* Clinton. Some of you are just really delusional.

    June 24, 2008 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  5. bern

    It is no surprise that people are seeing McCain as 4 more years of repug incompetence. I just hope President Obama cleans out the U.S. Justice Department. The news of hirings based on political affiliations goes to show again how corrupt the Bush administration is and there is no reason to believe McCain would be any different. Bush, Cheney, Rove and a bunch of others ought to be in jail.

    June 24, 2008 07:14 pm at 7:14 pm |
  6. Comedy Central

    Any Democrat should be way ahead and expected to win after 8 years of GWB. The problem is that this race offers no excitement and both candidates are full of doom and gloom about our future. By the time November rolls around everyone will have a major case of fatigue from these two.

    June 24, 2008 07:14 pm at 7:14 pm |
  7. Shelby in Seattle

    Paulette in Cincy....Let it Go of the Hate and let your innerBama come out! There is a better you in there...somehere.

    Obama 08!

    June 24, 2008 07:14 pm at 7:14 pm |
  8. Tony , CA Hillary Ex-supporter

    Please don't use 18million Hillary supporter anymore. It's 18mil -(minus) 1.

    Don't like Hillary anymore, i think i made the wrong decision by voting for her. She's to dis-honest. I don't like Obama either because he will raise a lot of taxes. I'll support him instead of McCain because i don't like war at all. Please don't use 18million people. I don't support her anymore.

    June 24, 2008 07:14 pm at 7:14 pm |
  9. Wayne

    The nail in the Republican coffin. It is never immediately evident when the party crashes and burns. The Republicans will be left out of power for at least a generation. Dude, I know 8 year olds who will vote Obama. In 10 years they will be a force. The next couple up and coming generations will vote Obama..the 65+ crowd that support McCain, many of them will be dead over the next 8 years.

    June 24, 2008 07:15 pm at 7:15 pm |
  10. Dave, Houston, TX

    Perfect. The Republican plan is going exactly right. McCain trails badly in the polls, then after the the Democratic Convention at the end of August, when Obama is in the midst of his bounce, McCain says (cough-cough) "I can't do it. I withdraw from the race." Then, the GOP throws a new guy into the race at their convention.

    I still think Obama will win, but all of the good strategy to defeat McCain will have been a wasted effort.

    June 24, 2008 07:15 pm at 7:15 pm |
  11. Tony , CA Hillary Ex-supporter

    June 24th, 2008 7:14 pm ET
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Please don't use 18million Hillary supporter anymore. It's 18mil -(minus) 1.

    Don't like Hillary anymore, i think i made the wrong decision by voting for her. She's to dis-honest. I don't like Obama either because he will raise a lot of taxes. I'll support him instead of McCain because i don't like war at all. Please don't use 18million people. I don't support her anymore.

    June 24, 2008 07:15 pm at 7:15 pm |
  12. YES!!

    Obama! Change in coming my friends!!

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    OBAMA 2008 and 2012

    June 24, 2008 07:16 pm at 7:16 pm |
  13. Gwen Roberts

    Exactly, I never believe polls. Let's wait until all the voters weigh in. Besides demographics has a lot to do with it. Just because 100 or whatever likely voters are surveyed doesn't mean that's the way the entire nation feels.

    I can't wait to see Obama fall flat on his face. His arrogance is beginning to get to me. And also, who wants a president who is always crying that everyone is attacking him? We need a leader not a wuss.

    June 24, 2008 07:16 pm at 7:16 pm |
  14. dr. joe

    OBAMA HAS EVERYTHING GOING FOR HIM!!!

    WHY DO I WANT ANOTHER BUSH???

    AND LOOK AT THE GAS PRICES...
    NO WAY MCCAIN!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:17 pm at 7:17 pm |
  15. Victor in Saanich, B.C. Canada

    This shouldn't be much of a decision save for the racists, the greed crowd, the military/ industrial complex and the senile!! The US needs to turn in a new direction. Maybe CNN can lead the charge by giving some 'talk' slots to people who aren't 'closet' Klan [and don't recognize the needs of more than 10% of the nation!!]!! Independent analysis and viewpoint would improve the discussion indeed!! {no more talking heads from political party #1 or 1A as well!!!]

    June 24, 2008 07:18 pm at 7:18 pm |
  16. Proud American

    Obama for Prez!!! Lets Go America!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:18 pm at 7:18 pm |
  17. applesauce

    Uh......Paulette from Cincinnati,

    You say Obama is "sick, sick, sick"? Please explain how you've come to that conclusion. We're all curious....

    June 24, 2008 07:18 pm at 7:18 pm |
  18. nancy

    Wahoo! President OBAMA!!!!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  19. hi

    that is really impressive. I hope it goes up.

    June 24, 2008 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  20. Peter in PA

    I am not sure why people bring things that happened 20 or 30 years ago and say that's how this things will be decided now.

    Tell me was there internet, ipod, 5Mb/s internet speed, web, internal space station.....twenty years ago? NOOOOOOO!

    So stop saying that this is how this candidate was 20 years ago and that's how current candidate will perform BS!

    June 24, 2008 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  21. Derrick

    ITS A OBAMANATION. HOW ABOUT MCCANSINATION OF THE REPUBLICAN REVISION OF THE MCSAME NATION. YOU KNOW THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE FUN.....BARACK THE VOTE 08/12

    June 24, 2008 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  22. tren

    Brandon Hillary Democrat for Mc Cain

    If Hillary had somthing on Obama she had 17 month to reveil it. Also, the GOP can't even find anything. That's why they keep playing these gotha, flip-flop, tit for tat games. So get over it and ride the democratic wave

    June 24, 2008 07:20 pm at 7:20 pm |
  23. Russ

    Obama '08!!!!!!!!! Yes we can!

    June 24, 2008 07:21 pm at 7:21 pm |
  24. JOHNY

    Its funny to me that every one saying negative things about Obama, goes some thing like...he is sick, liar, racist..etc....sounds childish, don't you think people. Lets talk facts and make an argument.( Paulette, Cincinnati) you probably can't help but try to use your brain for a CHANGE and stop talking like a ignorant uneducated.

    June 24, 2008 07:23 pm at 7:23 pm |
  25. ATL

    I bet u FOX wont carry this news

    June 24, 2008 07:23 pm at 7:23 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13