June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
15 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Texas Independent


    I am amazed that there as still some "Hillary or else McCain" folks out there. I see most of the women who backed Hillary have come around to their party, I know that most have been difficult but women are often the ones making the difficult choices in the home.

    Maybe some of you can convince Brandon to give it up and join the party. Brandon is still very disgruntal and I am worried for Brandon. Hillary losing is hard for her supporters (as it would be for supporters of any candidate) and when McCain loses this will be a double wammy for Brandon and may push Brandon over the edge

    June 24, 2008 07:24 pm at 7:24 pm |
  2. annie

    Now whose polls might that be? Let me guess – cnn or newsweek!

    June 24, 2008 07:24 pm at 7:24 pm |
  3. Whitney

    This is great news. Obama is the man a fine one at the that!!!
    OBAMA 08

    June 24, 2008 07:25 pm at 7:25 pm |
  4. Lenore Z.

    Ralph Nader said if the Democrats didn't have a landslide this time, they ought to fold up the party. And they will have a LANDSLIDE!

    June 24, 2008 07:25 pm at 7:25 pm |
  5. Lynn

    We will see on November 4th if the polls are right. Who knows what October surprise will bring.

    June 24, 2008 07:25 pm at 7:25 pm |
  6. BUSHED!!!!

    Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party ........OK now I understand -Y-CHETA is in an ATTACK mode .........KEEP it UP McSame it is working for the DEMS!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  7. Frank Lee

    Hopefully the lead will only increase in size.

    American can't affort another republican in the White House.

    McCain is Bush in a prehistoric body.

    June 24, 2008 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  8. Pat Riot

    It is a very sad day when the populus turns to socialism to solve their problems. These people believe that government can fix the condition of the nation when it is government that is the very cause. Obama is nothing more than a charmer, a salesman, a counselor for those who cannot help themselves. Nothing will change.

    June 24, 2008 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  9. Alex

    I don't understand why McCain doesn't just quit and give the election to Obama already. If you take into account McCain's unpopular stances on the issues and that he spouts the same old, same old rhetoric with regards to Washington at large, it'll be like shooting fish in a barrel for Obama.

    June 24, 2008 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  10. Tashibelle

    Ardnuas – Bill Clinton already DOES travel overseas on humanitarian missions (sometimes even with George H. Bush) that have helped to earn much respect for the US. He certainly does not need Obama's permission or blessing to do so.

    June 24, 2008 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  11. Daniel

    Pretty sure I was one of the people that was interviewed for this poll. Glad I could get my two cents in about how we need 08ama.

    June 24, 2008 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  12. Jen, CA

    Obama is all over the map with "ideas," none of which he has explained in detail with respect to their implementation. He seems to have an inability to focus - sort of like a two-year-old.

    In the end his attack "blitz" will not work. It will leave the voters so confused, that come November, they will gladly go back to voting "Mom, country, and apple pie" - the things they REALLY understand in their gut.

    June 24, 2008 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  13. There It Is

    Can you say NOVEMBER LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!

    I love it.

    Go Obama, Go.

    June 24, 2008 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  14. Coretta, GA.

    Obama is going down by election day.

    Watch and weep Obamamorons.

    June 24, 2008 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  15. Erick

    Hillary should run as an independent. Take what is yours since OBAMA BIN LADEN stole it from you! OBAMA, GO BACK TO AFRICA!

    Hillary '08 and '12

    June 24, 2008 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  16. Lucas, Nashville TN


    June 24, 2008 07:29 pm at 7:29 pm |
  17. Republican Joe

    I am a republican and it is slim to none that I would vote republican, and slim has just left town. The RNC has big problems when only 36% of its party is enthusiatic about its candidate and I think that 36% says one thing and once in the voting booth will vote the other way. I am going to the polls very enthusiatic about voting for Barack Obama. I will even go as far as saying I will work and give to his campaign.

    I am Republican Joe and this blog was approved by me!!!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:29 pm at 7:29 pm |
  18. sigh

    Paulette in Cincinnati Ohio.....Get a grip lady!

    June 24, 2008 07:30 pm at 7:30 pm |
  19. Wrap Him Up

    Signed, sealed, delivered–he's ours.

    Go Barack, Go.

    Obama 08

    June 24, 2008 07:30 pm at 7:30 pm |
  20. Felix

    the polls become more ridiculous as CNN shows its outrageous lack of character and honesty in its biased so called reporting.

    June 24, 2008 07:30 pm at 7:30 pm |
  21. dominicana loca

    ooooh lala papi, you got it together baby!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:31 pm at 7:31 pm |
  22. HelpChangeAmerica

    One step at a time, one battle, one win, one day..... We will surely gain control and respect of this nation once again. The honesty and integrity will shine through on one glorious day in November.

    GObama 08

    June 24, 2008 07:31 pm at 7:31 pm |
  23. Clinton Fringer

    I call BS. Even the Huffington Post bloggers are turning against him.

    June 24, 2008 07:31 pm at 7:31 pm |
  24. Jack Mehoff, NY

    The smear campaign has not yet begun. The Republican campaign has not yet begun.

    Obama will be exposed for the woos/wimp/appeaser he is and he'll go down like a tree falling in the forest.

    June 24, 2008 07:32 pm at 7:32 pm |
  25. Grace, Lynchburg VA

    Obama folks – it's not over until the fat lady sings and sings and sings. It's a pretty sad thing that Obama feels if he doesn't raise millions of dollars he won't be able to defeat McCain. Gee, what does that tell you about him – maybe that he needs tons of money just to convince people to vote for him? If he is so willing to take the money out of your pockets now, just wait and see what he does if he becomes president.

    June 24, 2008 07:32 pm at 7:32 pm |
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