June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. Dusacre

    Great news!

    Please keep it coming!

    June 24, 2008 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  2. Minnesota against Johnny McSame

    Lets take it further guys. 15 points is nothing. Show the republicans how angry you are at them.

    June 24, 2008 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  3. I Love Iowa

    Thanks Iowa-we owe you one.

    Obama 08

    June 24, 2008 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |

    You Repubs keep haenging on to your 19th century politics.

    Obama has a 20th century vision and his judgement is correct from the beginning.

    Nobody in the world knows what McShame's wisdom is, he flip flogs
    around und the war is his first priority, he has nothing else to convince
    americans why they should vote for him.

    McShames supporters have no arguments to Bush's failed politics,
    they only like to dig up dirt and relate to smear tactics and come up with lies.

    What a disgrace!

    June 24, 2008 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  5. Ben Obamacrat

    The Democrats are poised for big wins in November, from the top of the ticket right down to the local dog catcher. Bush and his merry band of neocons have succeeded in destroying the Republican Party.

    June 24, 2008 07:34 pm at 7:34 pm |
  6. Crazy Cat Lady

    We love you, Hillary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Don't give up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Ask McCain to be his VP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:34 pm at 7:34 pm |
  7. Teddy California

    I hope Obama wins by a very small margin. If he wins by a large margin, that will give him a mandate to increase a lot of governmental spending and to raise a lot of taxes.

    In that case, most policies since Reagan revolution will be reversed. U.S. will look more like Europe (UK a little different). Some people may like it and other people may not like it.

    For instance, in France, it is almost impossible (very difficult) to layoff any workers. If you have a job, then you will like the European system. But if you own a business, you do not like it. I know someone in a U.S. company, he said he had to pay someone in France almost two years salary to get him fired because the French guy could not do the job well. Germany pays five years unemployment compensation at 60% or 80% of your most recent salary.

    Anyway, I do not like sudden and dramatic economic policy changes so I do not like Obama to win a landslide. However, after almost 3 decades of Reagan's economic ideas (Clinton basically followed that economic model), maybe U.S. should try something new. But the process should be gradual.

    A close win will be much better for the U.S. When Reagan and Bush Sr won landslide (Electorate Votes only), at least Democrats controlled the congress so Republicans cannot do something extreme. Now since Democrats will be controlling congress, if they win the Presidency by a landslide, they will interprete as a mandate to raise taxes (on rich but who are rich?) and to increase spending.

    June 24, 2008 07:34 pm at 7:34 pm |
  8. Wow

    It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas! What a great gift.

    June 24, 2008 07:34 pm at 7:34 pm |
  9. john

    Obama will never be elected.
    When all the facts are out the man is out of the race.
    Take that to the bank.........

    June 24, 2008 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  10. McCain campaign full of lies

    Polls are not always accurate...yes but it's the first sign that Obama is expanding his lead.

    Republicans are disillusioned and not very excited about their candidate.

    June 24, 2008 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  11. Travis

    Double digit lead without the "Big Mouth Clintons" (true scammers)

    They're just trying to recoup some of their millions back. They couldn't give a rats butt for you or the party.

    Don't let those sleezeballs near you Barak.

    June 24, 2008 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  12. Obama YES!

    For Brandon: are you sniffing airplane glue. your candidate lost, fair and square. now you are willing to throw caution to the wind and vote for mccain. i question your judgment.

    June 24, 2008 07:36 pm at 7:36 pm |
  13. decider

    Please help me decide who to vote for:

    on the one hand we have the oldest candidate, who couldn't raise his hands high enough because of the injuries suffered while serving in Vietnam, spending 1966 days in captivity, whose wife's Operation Smile spread across from Bangladesh to Vietnam or on the other, a younger candidate, in a designer's suit, spending 7300 days as a member, along with his unproud wife, of a black separatist church, worshipping Wright?

    June 24, 2008 07:36 pm at 7:36 pm |
  14. Brittany, Miami

    Obama's arrogance and the arrogance of his supporters will be their ultimate downfall. It's going to be so sweet to see. I should include CNN's arrogance, especially Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews.

    "Pride goeth before the fall."

    June 24, 2008 07:36 pm at 7:36 pm |
  15. jason

    soon, i figure the McCain camp will cut funding for bloggers, then you will see all the people pretending to be hillary supporters who will vote for McCain dissapear.

    Honestly, I don't think the republicans even want to win this one. They got what they wanted in Iraq (oil). They don't actually care about stabalizing the area. They want to pull out, because it has become a waste of money. But they can't pull out themselves, because it might shake their brainwashed audience out of its stupor.

    June 24, 2008 07:36 pm at 7:36 pm |
  16. Go John Go

    The beauty of McCain's position is that it's due to his own bumbling. The more he says, the behinder he gets.

    June 24, 2008 07:36 pm at 7:36 pm |
  17. Jim, SC

    I think this poll is garbage. Who are they polling anyway? And are we supposed to now just go, oh my goodness the polls show him ahead, I guess I'll vote for him now. NOT! I'm a life long (black male) Dem and I'm not voting for him.

    June 24, 2008 07:37 pm at 7:37 pm |
  18. john

    You people need a reality check what do you know about Obama, What is his change,Hope for what. Just because you can read a speach doesn't mean you can think on your feet and when Barak gets put to the test he stutters says Ah a lot and doesn't say a lot. Be carefull of the change you want because it ain't going to be the change you get.

    Ex Democrat

    June 24, 2008 07:37 pm at 7:37 pm |
  19. Sandy

    These polls hardly tell a story. One shows 896 voters and the other 1100. That is nothing. All other polls show single digit. 7 and 3 with margin of error that's a tie. Any one who listens to polls any way needs to remember that they are a bunch of crap this early in the race and are almost always wrong in a presidential race.

    June 24, 2008 07:38 pm at 7:38 pm |
  20. Joe Reg

    The polls are up and are

    going higher because merica is awake this time.

    The time has come to make history and

    change Washington in a new direction.

    Go Bama go!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:38 pm at 7:38 pm |
  21. Rusty, Portland

    Keep tooting your horn about your leads in the polls. You are like a marching band, unknowingly marching straight into a swamp, and soon your sound will be muffled and then silent.

    June 24, 2008 07:39 pm at 7:39 pm |
  22. brenda28

    At least with McCain, I know he has the experience necessary to protect the country. Frankly, I can't believe how many people are willing to support Obama without really knowing anything about him. This isn't American Idol, people! There is more at stake than your right to murder your unborn baby

    June 24, 2008 07:39 pm at 7:39 pm |
  23. Shannon

    We are a country that elected George Bush twice, obviously we don't always choose the best candidate, that's what this poll says to me!

    June 24, 2008 07:39 pm at 7:39 pm |
  24. Ginky

    We are screwed if the many uninformed voters in this country actually vote for Obama. Wake up America before it's too late.

    June 24, 2008 07:39 pm at 7:39 pm |
  25. Jason *Obama 08!*

    Okay folks, lets not get too excited here. We know Obama has a lead over McBush right now. But does anyone remember in 2004, when they told us that John Kerry had a lead in Ohio and in Florida? Well, it made us think that Kerry just might edge out Bush in those states...and guess what happened? He LOST both Ohio and Florida. My point being, yeah we know Obama does have some sort of lead and just how accurate are these random polls? And where and how do they obtain these results? So I am a little skeptical about these polls, only because of the inaccuracies, like the ones, for example, done in 2004.

    So I am still waiting to see what happens and not taking the polls too seriously. But hey, I don't mind seeing Barack LEADING McBush!!!!

    Go Barack Obama! Change you can believe in!

    June 24, 2008 07:39 pm at 7:39 pm |
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