June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
13 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. mya

    I support Obama 1000% but this doesn't make me feel any better!! I'm going to spend many sleepless nights between now and Nov. working for my guy!!!!! Obama 2008!!!!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:39 pm at 7:39 pm |
  2. Robert

    I am sure he's leading the polls allright. If you look at the polls on AOL John McCain has the lead from 62% to 38%. It just goes to show how liberal CNN can be sometimes with this "I love Obama" attitude. Yeah keep saying your the most trusted name in news too and feeding Americans BS. I just want to ask the people at CNN how many registered voters actually voted on this poll. I bet the poll votes are like a few thousand.

    June 24, 2008 07:40 pm at 7:40 pm |
  3. Jerry, Denver,CO

    I believe that Obamas lead will continue to grow, this is only the beginning of what will be a total landslide victory for Obama.

    YES WE CAN!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:40 pm at 7:40 pm |
  4. DC, SD

    Obama was not my choice but he will now get my vote. Anything but another Republican.

    Take nothing for granted as 24 hours can change everything and Republicans have no intention of losing this. This will be ever so ugly, count on it.

    June 24, 2008 07:40 pm at 7:40 pm |
  5. Capt. Smash, Salt Lake City, Utah

    Senators Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Russ Feingold (D-WI) released the following statement today in response to the announcement that the Senate this week will consider the compromise legislation that would reform the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA):

    This is a deeply flawed bill, which does nothing more than offer retroactive immunity by another name. We strongly urge our colleagues to reject this so-called 'compromise' legislation and oppose any efforts to consider this bill in its current form. We will oppose efforts to end debate on this bill as long as it provides retroactive immunity for the telecommunications companies that may have participated in the President's warrantless wiretapping program, and as long as it fails to protect the privacy of law-abiding Americans.

    June 24, 2008 07:41 pm at 7:41 pm |
  6. Farrell, Houston, Tx

    Jason in Texas, I never took my Obama yard sign down and people have been asking me for it, no way Jose, Obama all the way.

    June 24, 2008 07:42 pm at 7:42 pm |
  7. Bishop

    DUH!!!

    Obama '08

    June 24, 2008 07:42 pm at 7:42 pm |
  8. TRUTH

    Huxtables 2008

    June 24, 2008 07:42 pm at 7:42 pm |
  9. victor

    Change we can believe in, this is the America I knew and love and for the 1st time in my adult life I'm so proud – now what? 🙂 see, words do matter and all the Obamahaters need to stop and unite with our next president of the Great United States of America (ALL STATES).

    June 24, 2008 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  10. Mind over Matter

    Yeah, baby.

    I'd bet that lead will only get wider. People are waking up.

    I started thinking a few weeks ago that it was inevitable, but I'm now considering that there might even be a landslide...

    It's nice to see America strongly considering voting in someone who's not another old white man...

    June 24, 2008 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  11. Nice guys again.

    I support Barack Obama mainly because of his views on foreign policy, the economy, and his environmental stance. His bottom up economic message hits home and his sincerity in finding alternative solutions to our energy crisis are at the top of my list.

    His foresight to vote against an illegal war is huge for me as I understand the constitution and the United Nations charter. The numerous violations of this charter have harmed our reputation around the world measurably. His charisma and candor will and is resonating around the globe and his willingness to use diplomacy instead of brazen arrogance is a sure indicator of what kind of character he is. A leader we can be proud of. A leader who made the Harvard law review and taught constitutional law. A leader who will look to advisor's but use his own judgment. A leader with strong morals.

    A leader who will deliver our country to the forefront of the movement to improve the world as a whole while rebuilding our reputation as the shining bastion in the west we once were. A leader with caliber.

    I support Barack Obama because I believe in hope.

    June 24, 2008 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  12. INDEPENDENT for OBAMA

    Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent......... McBush the more you ATTACK the SWeeter IT IS!!!!!!!! .......... THE last 2 days you have become an ATTACK MACHINE!!!!!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  13. New Yawka

    OMG,
    Enough already of Owanna-Here's a guy who has done nothing during his tenure in Washington. He talks of change-blah, blah, blah-what EXACTLY is he going to do besides his preaching? He scolds anyone who talks about drilling for oil-says it will take years to find viable resources-we'll what happens if we never find alternative means? Sit on our supply and pay outragious prices? Oh yeah-the ethanol-riiiight-it take more energy to make and the price of my Frosted Slakes keeps rising-get off the band wangon and give us some real solutions!

    June 24, 2008 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  14. Republican O in '08 supporter

    The voters are starting to catch on. Sen McCain attempts to offer some sort of voter appeasement every week it seems. First it's a gas tax holiday for the summer.. Then it's dropping the ban on offshore drilling. The public realizes these are bandaid solutions to a monumental problem that isn't going to go away..... not in the next 3 presidential terms. It took Bush less than 6 years to create havoc in all stages of our lives and there is just no quick fix to the expanding problems. You just can't lower taxes on the richest members of the country and expect to pay for a war that's costing us 12 billion dollars a month and on top of that, saddle our grandchildren with the debt. McCain's staff are scratching their heads trying to find something that will impress the voters.. Problem is it's all too obvious that that's what they're doing.. They have nothing to offer except scare tactics which won't work this time.

    June 24, 2008 07:44 pm at 7:44 pm |
  15. Mahoney Canada

    Your right the world hates America, but i'll tell you this the world loves Mr.Obama.

    if you have half a brain at all you know better than to vote for Mr.Mccain. Although good for a laugh on the daily show i don't think he has the balls to give America the change it desperately needs.

    peace out

    June 24, 2008 07:44 pm at 7:44 pm |
  16. Jerry, Denver,CO

    The GOP is out of touch with todays college students. So they think that the students who have put their hearts and souls into this campaign will not show uo to vote for Obama on election day? That kind of thinking is why they are getting crushed. They've been meddling in Iraq so long they have no idea what is going on right here at home. A movement for change, the likes of which has not been seen for nearly 40 years. Even worse for the GOP...history will remember them for the colossal fools that they are.

    June 24, 2008 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  17. David, Silver Spring, MD

    Women supporters of Hillary Clinton will vote for Barack Obama in November because they know that an Obama victory shatters the barrier that has kept anyone but white males from attaining the presidency.

    After an Obama presidency, the notion that in the U.S. anyone can grow up to be President will actually have a ring of truth to it.

    June 24, 2008 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  18. Chris

    All you foolish Obamabots are going to get what you wished for ... and, then this country is going to be led into the crapper, by your false prophet who is inexperienced, and in way over his head. Thanks for all your lame slogans and empty catch phrases. You obviously can not tell the difference between style and substance.

    June 24, 2008 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  19. Tommie (Maryland)

    I love how some folks keep waiting for some mysterious dirt to come out about Obama. If you are a Democrat for McCain, shouldn't it be about McCain rather than a suspicion about Obama?

    June 24, 2008 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  20. Fred

    how can mcCant help this struggling economy, housing market., and he had something to do with the "Savings and Loan Scandel" wiki it.

    June 24, 2008 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  21. California Voter

    Pick a poll get a point spread, and so what?

    June 24, 2008 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  22. Women In California For Obama

    Polls mean absolutely nothing. I'll wait until election day myself.

    June 24, 2008 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  23. LYNETTE IN CA

    This is wonderful news, but be careful and recognize who you're dealing with!! The republicans are well known now pulling rabbits out of their hat! Not to mention, he has bush behind him and we all know what that means!

    GObama '08

    June 24, 2008 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  24. psittacines

    Senator McCain spends a lot of time saying he hates war....

    Well, my friends, it is certainly good to hate war....

    But it is better to prevent war....

    Viva
    los Obamas

    June 24, 2008 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  25. Fred

    how can mcCant help this struggling economy, housing market., and he had something to do with the "Savings and Loan Scandal" wiki it.

    June 24, 2008 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
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