June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
14 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/24/art.obamapoll.ap.jpg caption="Obama is up big in a new poll."]
(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. justin, nebraska

    theres no way that obama can choose hilary as a running mate. some may think thats the only way to going to unite the dem party and win the presidency, but that would just make for a very unstable cabinet.

    June 24, 2008 07:47 pm at 7:47 pm |
  2. s


    June 24, 2008 07:48 pm at 7:48 pm |
  3. Philips

    Thank you Senator Barack Obama for everything and thanks to all American who has see the light and came to the light, you will shine and we will shine together on Nov. keep on supporting.

    June 24, 2008 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  4. Maya wants to see a DEM IN THE WHITE HOUSE!!

    We are coming together, people. It's not just about party lines anymore – it's about people being FED UP with the status quo. We are ready to heal our crumbling economic infrastructure, our relationship with the rest of the world, and to BRING HOME OUR TROOPS.

    Dems, Independants, and fed-up Republicans – IT IS TIME

    OBAMA 08 and 12

    June 24, 2008 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  5. James Otis

    Let's see: Newsweek has Obama with 15 pt. lead. LAT/Bloomberg has Obama by 12. Gallup has Obama up by 3. At this point these polls have virtually no value.

    And remember Obama fans: it is the Electoral College results that count whick makes these polls all that more useless.

    June 24, 2008 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  6. ct voter

    God this is horrible, they are influencing voter's with these polls, this isn't right CNN! I can't believe this isn't against the law.

    June 24, 2008 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  7. Brainwashed by Fox.

    ^-- I really feel that I got bamboozled by my long time favorite news channel. I now watch cnn. If only for the simple reason that they research stories.

    I am a republican who has from the beginning supported Obama.

    P.S. I am astounded at the number of bigots in my party. So just thought i'd apologize.

    June 24, 2008 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  8. miyaki

    This is from the poll

    "In this national poll's random sample of voters, 39% identified themselves as Democrats, 22% as Republicans, and 27% as independents. In a similar poll a year ago, 33% identified themselves as Democrats, 28% as Republicans, and 30% as independents."

    Another biased poll by the media.

    June 24, 2008 07:51 pm at 7:51 pm |
  9. Jeff, Huntington Beach, CA

    This is the most crucial election our country has faced in modern history. Another 4 years of the neocon agenda will do away with rational thinking people. Just look at the Focus on the Family clown who came out against Obama. His kind will do away with all of us for their greater good and it does not in any way, shape, or form resemble Jesus, the one they claim to represent. They are a bunch of hypocrites.

    June 24, 2008 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  10. Jimmy from Virginia

    I am a lifelong Republican, but they have really made a mess and I'm going to have to vote for the man who has a better vision for America, Obama.

    June 24, 2008 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  11. Sue in MI

    Beware the Republican hate machine...if there is a (manufactured) attack on US soil in October, Bush will declare martial law, suspend the election, and stay right where he is-taking down the US and her freedoms. We must impeach them now!

    June 24, 2008 07:53 pm at 7:53 pm |
  12. TX GOP

    Defeatocrats should not get too excited. Polls mean nothing. We will be releasing all of the dirt on NObama here shortly. GOP 4 Life!!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:53 pm at 7:53 pm |
  13. raheen

    Go Obama yes we can 08

    June 24, 2008 07:54 pm at 7:54 pm |
  14. RCH, St. Paul, MN

    I think that this pretty much throws James Dobson's religious buffoonery right into the toilet. The rabid and religious Right have had their day and been found sorely lacking. Now it's time for Obama to fix all the things that the Republicans have screwed up during their eight year Reich, er, tenure....

    June 24, 2008 07:54 pm at 7:54 pm |
  15. psittacines

    A question for Ms. Pelosi:

    Dear Madame Speaker:

    Most republicans are playing the same old "Democratic ticket will raise your taxes" card right now.

    Why is not more being made of the connection between the war and foreign policies of the Bush administration, the ensuing high national debt, and the floundering economic situation over here? Are not these all related?

    Thank you,

    June 24, 2008 07:55 pm at 7:55 pm |
  16. tiffany jackson

    It is beyond cute how the MSM holds onto anything they can get. First, Obama can't possibly win the clinton voters (yeah, only 89% of them) now, well even though obama couldn't get whites, hispanics, blue collar, pink collar in the primaries- he will never get them in the primary- um, he is. Now, everytime someone holds a big lead it always vanishes. I mean, you couldn't even hold on to the where is the bounce strategy.

    June 24, 2008 07:55 pm at 7:55 pm |
  17. TRUTH

    I agree, I love hearing about this lead but he still has a lot of work ahead of him and the GOP will try to throw all they can at him. Stay strong Obama!!!

    June 24, 2008 07:55 pm at 7:55 pm |
  18. sPoNgEbOb sQuArEpAnTs


    get ready for the dirtiest republican attacks.
    The GOP will not go down withoout a fight.

    Pastor james Dobson started today.
    Eventhough Dobson has on many times quoted from Levitcus to justify his anti-gay rants......
    ... today, he is saying the old testament is obsolete, So Obama is distorting the bible by quoting from both the old and new textament.

    The GOP is is praying for the US to be attacked, so people will be filled with fear, and then vote Republican.

    GOP = Grand Old Pharisees
    (fake christians, they like war, giving tax cuts for the rich only, and denying healthcare to the poor)

    June 24, 2008 07:55 pm at 7:55 pm |
  19. BR

    Obama WILL win whether anyone likes it or not.

    June 24, 2008 07:55 pm at 7:55 pm |
  20. Thrasher

    Did half of you read the article? It said the leader of a poll in June often loses by a large margin or barely squeeks out a win. Don't get too smug, Obummer will have a tough race. Look I can make fun of a candidate's name too, and it's just as uncreative as all the other posters with their "informed" comments!


    June 24, 2008 07:56 pm at 7:56 pm |
  21. JC

    gallup has them even

    June 24, 2008 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  22. Independent-woman-4-Obama

    That's wonderful, but this is only June. The real poll is in November! With all the problems Bush is leaving behind, we, the People, need to choose wisely.

    This evening on the CBS news, I heard that Israel is asking the U.S. to help them bomb Iran's nuclear facilities......... disturbing and scary! All I could say is, here we go...... the Republicans are at it again. Another war, because we all know that Iran wont stand for an attack!

    When will we, the People, rise up and say enough? We can't afford another war! Isn't over $10 TRILLION IN NATIONAL DEBT ENOUGH?

    June 24, 2008 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  23. Paul

    TO ROBERT: I've seen your AOL poll. It's a pol of AOL users who read a conservative blogger's blog. To site such a ludicrous source while attacking CNN smacks of either desperation or lack of intellectual curiosity.

    June 24, 2008 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  24. truespin

    The media has now started to take a closer look at the things Obama wants to do. This is not helping Obama as his ideas are creepy at best. They are ideas of tax and spend like we have never seen before. What we can look for as the media starts to key in on what Obama wants to do is the doubts about Obama to increase. When the debates occur, the public will see how way out Obama really is.

    June 24, 2008 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
  25. The Other Campaign Strategist from 115th St & Amsterdam Ave

    Competency +
    Civility +
    Centrist Policy +
    Clear, Concise Charts to Communicate +
    Consistency =

    a Winning Obama Team in November 2008.

    Run through the tape Barack .... remember we had one election that was decided in December off 2000, not on election day November.

    Finish him.

    June 24, 2008 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
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