July 24th, 2008
01:59 PM ET
14 years ago

CNN's Electoral Map: Both lose ground – but McCain gains edge

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/07/24/art.electoralmap.cnn.jpg caption="CNN's new electoral map."](CNN) — Two more states have shifted to the toss-up column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidates’ strength leading up to the November election.

Minnesota – which had turned from toss-up to “leans Obama” in the last analysis – is back up for grabs, along with New Mexico, which had been classified “leans McCain.” The shift of both states gives the Arizona senator a net gain of five votes over his standing in the previous CNN Electoral Map – but his opponent still has 221 electoral votes — 32 more than McCain’s total of 189, and 49 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change in New Mexico after new polling conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center showed that demographic, a major voting bloc in the state, backs Obama’s candidacy by a margin of greater than 2 to 1, 66 percent to 23 percent. Minnesota’s move comes after a new Quinnipac survey finds Obama’s lead in that state has shrunk to a statistically insignificant 2-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Election: Check out CNN's new electoral map

This is only a CNN estimate, and is likely to change many more times before Election Day.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (213 Responses)
  1. Roger (Dallas)

    Why do we have to be continually subjected to polls? We the people have enough sense to listen to the candidates and make up our own minds without countless talking heads trying to push us one way or the other. It would be so nice on election night to watch it unfold with anticipation rather than aggrevation!

    July 24, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  2. Phil, FL

    CNN trying to stir the pot and keep their ratings up.

    They poll the same republicans over and over and over.

    The most biased network this week – CNN – loves to bash Obama.

    Show all of McWarmonger's gaffes. CNN is biased.

    July 24, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  3. Doug, New Jersey

    The states with good honest people who are decent, respectful, and have common courtesy will not go to the Democrat.

    Now, places like New York, New Jersey, California ETC, which are filled with mean spirited narcisist liberals, hell even Osama would win them with a little D next to his name. I have lived in both, yup, there sure are two Americas.

    July 24, 2008 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  4. Nation of Whiners

    No freaking way. I don't care what Quinnipac says, Minnesota is way blue for Obama. I'd bet my house on it.

    This nation and the WORLD is ready for an end to the old way of doing things. McCain is a good man, but a bad choice for president.

    Obama / Biden 08!

    July 24, 2008 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  5. Dilly Everett

    Real Politics.com averages many more polls, including Qunnipiac, and Obama is sill up. CNN your polls should be more inclusive. I find most of the time they are only one to three poll averages. Do you only print what looks like a story?

    July 24, 2008 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  6. gobo

    The title of the post does not reflect the content. Obama has the edge becuase he still has more electoral vote (221 to 189, as indicated).
    Fair reporting does not mean making stories up to make the presidential race is close.

    July 24, 2008 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  7. Michael "C" Lorton, Virginia

    Voters historically vote their emotions, rather than their consciousness.......and until November, their emotions will sway just like barley blowing in the wind......the poll trolls are to anxious and it is an insignificant indicator.

    July 24, 2008 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  8. Minnesotan

    Yeah, I'm surprised MN is a toss-up... You'd think after paying some of the highest taxes in the country because of democrats, we would be voting for ANYONE else!!

    July 24, 2008 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  9. Erika, KS

    Good! This is only the beginning. Wait until November! Every single day Obama proves how ill prepared he is to lead. Seriously, it's one mis-step after another with him. It's hilarious if you sit down and pay attention. Not that the Obamanites will ever fess up and admit their god isn't perfect. Ha! Serves him right, using his children, running around the world preaching like he's already president, being in charge of committees that, lo and behold, he really doesn't chair! He and his wife are haters of this country (read her thesis), etc., etc., etc. It goes on and on and on.

    July 24, 2008 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  10. Ian

    My grandmother-in-law says she just doesn't trust Obama. You just can't argue with logic like that. It's rock solid.

    July 24, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  11. Terry, Butte, Mt

    Both Quinnipac and Rasmussen have polls out on 7/22 for Minnesota giving Obama +2 and +13 respectively. Real clear politics average for Minnesota which calculates from many polls gives Obama +5.3. Pollster.com which also calculates averages from many different polls shows Obama with an average of +13 points. So how is Minnesota a toss up?

    The last poll I can find for New Mexico is Zogby, updated on 7/8/08 which gives Obama a +16 point lead. Pollster.com has Obama with a +11 point average. Both should be "leaning Obama" at worst.

    By the same token, Iowa, Michigan, and Colorado all have sizeable leads for Obama.

    To be fair, Nevada, Florida and Missouri all lean McCain.

    July 24, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  12. Scott L

    Obama stands no chance. Murderers and their accomplices for Obama!

    July 24, 2008 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  13. go away mongers- Ventura ca

    I think this electoral map thing is a bit EARLY. It isn't even Labor Day yet. I believe that Barack Obama will have a stunning mandate on November 4th. The more mccain insults his patriotism and questions his motive, the better he (Obama) looks!
    YES, WE CAN.

    July 24, 2008 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |
  14. Leah DiMarco, Texas

    The CNN map is way off. Everyone should check the chart of the nine sources at DemConWatchBlog.com on the Presidential Forecast link. Why is it that CNN only updates every two weeks or so and then when they do they don't show the current state of the race!

    July 24, 2008 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  15. JohnW in NC

    This analysis does not grant the Democrats the states won by Gore and Kerry, both of which were narrowly defeated. These 250+ Democratic Electoral Votes are a reasonable starting point for evaluating the 2008 election.

    Even if McCain were to steal one or two "Blue" states, Obama is just as likely to steal a couple of "Red" states. The 250 EV Democratic starting point remains about the same.

    That leaves about 10 "toss-up" states: VA, FL, OH, MO, NV, NM, IA, IN, CO & NH. McCain needs to win 75% of these states (EV). Given that Obama is leading in about 75% of them, success for McCain is not likely.

    I predict that the "split" of these states will be close to 50/50 and Obama will win the election 310-230. Obama will enjoy AT LEAST an 80 EV victory; Obama will go over the top by 40 EV and McCain will fall short by by the same amount.

    July 24, 2008 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  16. McNo

    OH WHATEVER I see a landslide and a bunch of confused media pundits when Obama wins this thing.

    July 24, 2008 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  17. Jamaal kansas

    these polls are stupid how can you contack 1,000 people sometimes 500 people and try to guesstimate what is going to happed i have never been polled and these Pollsters don't call cell phone which is more than half of Obama base because most people in the Black community only has a cell phone or don't have one at all that goes for younger voters as well Obama will win this year in a landslide

    July 24, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  18. Frank

    It's depressing to have to admit this, but looking at this map tells you all you need to know about race in America.

    The deep south and the rural Midwest, where racism is still tacitly accepted as within the social and political norm, are the only areas of undisputed strength for John McCain.

    Understanding this is essential to interpreting the hateful tone of the McCain campaign. Of the Republican's original core values – greed, fear, and hatred – only the hatred remains reliable.

    July 24, 2008 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  19. 57 States

    I wouldnt vote for Obama because I dont want 55% of my income going to the government….. If any of you liberals would like to argue with me feel free. i have busted my but for 30 years to get to this point and Obama wants to take all of that from me.

    If by some chance he gets elected I am going to ensure my salary is lowered to 249,999. It is sad that in America you are rewarded for failure and punished for hard work.

    "McCain The Vote" 08

    July 24, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  20. Vickie, Maryland

    The news wants to keep it looking as if the race is "close". Afterall they're getting the highest ratings ever, cause so many are tuning everyday to find out what's going on. If everyone already knew that one candidate was a clear winner over another they know people would be less interested.....people weren't interested in watching the Miami Dolphins play the Patriots, they knew it was over before it began. But The Patriots and the Colts, now just the idea makes you want to tune in cause you know it's going to be a real battle.
    They're creating this "dead heat" that doesn't exist.

    July 24, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  21. JIM...TX

    To those who say Obama has no experience to be President...did you vote for Bush...whose "experience" was as Texas governor? That qualified him by what standard? Oh...of course he did have his family name to fall back on. Being a Senator for any amount of time certainly trumps that.

    July 24, 2008 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  22. Strained Logic

    Let me get this straight! I guy raised by a single parent makes his way to Harvard law school where he presides over the Harvard law review board and goes on to be a constitutional law professor at Harvard. This same guy leaves Harvard to become a Community organizer on the south side of Chicago; one of the most tough communities in America. He later wins a seat in the Chicago legislature where he sits for five years before winning a bid to the United States senate. He pens two books, runs for president as a virtual unknown, reinvents campaign finance, and dismantles the campaign one of Americas most recognized and beloved politicians. Then to make matters worse this same guy tours the world to worldwide adoration and respect. I think I agree with the bloggers; he has no experience, as a matter of fact anyone of us blogging, opinionated, internet darlings could wake up tomorrow armed with a great speech and do all this man has done? Don’t be silly, sometimes the proof is in the pudding. Although, when dealing with backward logic that says hey I loved Hillary; therefore I will trash all that her and the DEMS stand for to vote for McCain. Consequently, if Barack Obama does not add Hillary to his ticket as Vice President I will never vote for him, because “this is not a popularity contest, it is about the issues!”

    Ugh! Are some of you really this dense?

    July 24, 2008 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  23. Dave g, Minneapolis

    The CNN Moderator probably does not like Bob Barr. Many of my posts are not posted. Especially when I provide reference links to fact based articles.

    and rumpusgoopus, it's a "toss up" because many Minnesotans are really upset at the high taxes we pay...towards the highest in the country.
    Unless of course you are the beneficiary of these entitlements...

    Barr '08!

    July 24, 2008 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
  24. 57 States

    wouldnt vote for Obama because I dont want 55% of my income going to the government….. If any of you liberals would like to argue with me feel free. i have busted my but for 30 years to get to this point and Obama wants to take all of that from me.

    If by some chance he gets elected I am going to ensure my salary is lowered to 249,999. It is sad that in America you are rewarded for failure and punished for hard work

    PS I am doing better today then 8 years ago....actually doubled my salary. Hard work truly does pay off

    July 24, 2008 02:36 pm at 2:36 pm |
  25. Susan

    Can we end these stupid polls for a while? Why doesn't CNN do some real reporting on the lies told by McCain, rather than polls, and making McLame sound like he is god's gift to us, and how he will save us! Cnn now = McCain!

    July 24, 2008 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
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