July 24th, 2008
01:59 PM ET
14 years ago

CNN's Electoral Map: Both lose ground – but McCain gains edge

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/07/24/art.electoralmap.cnn.jpg caption="CNN's new electoral map."](CNN) — Two more states have shifted to the toss-up column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidates’ strength leading up to the November election.

Minnesota – which had turned from toss-up to “leans Obama” in the last analysis – is back up for grabs, along with New Mexico, which had been classified “leans McCain.” The shift of both states gives the Arizona senator a net gain of five votes over his standing in the previous CNN Electoral Map – but his opponent still has 221 electoral votes — 32 more than McCain’s total of 189, and 49 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change in New Mexico after new polling conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center showed that demographic, a major voting bloc in the state, backs Obama’s candidacy by a margin of greater than 2 to 1, 66 percent to 23 percent. Minnesota’s move comes after a new Quinnipac survey finds Obama’s lead in that state has shrunk to a statistically insignificant 2-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Election: Check out CNN's new electoral map

This is only a CNN estimate, and is likely to change many more times before Election Day.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (213 Responses)
  1. Bayou Joe

    CNN you have it wrong again. NM is McCain country. So is Texas, Florida and Michigan. After what happened in Fla and Mi. the Democrats have no chance with Obama.

    July 24, 2008 03:27 pm at 3:27 pm |
  2. Aaron

    Why does it take one poll to change a whole network's mind?

    July 24, 2008 03:29 pm at 3:29 pm |
  3. Love My USA

    This is a very disturbing article, why isn't the media talking about this???


    Published: June 29, 2008

    Certainly the most interesting and potentially devastating phone call I have received during this election cycle came this week from one of the Obama's campaign internet geeks. These are the staffers who devised Obama's internet fund raising campaign which raised in the neighborhood of $200 million so far. That is more then twice the total funds raised by any candidate in history – and this was all from the internet campaign.

    What I learn ed from this insider was shocking but I guess we shouldn't be surprised that when it comes to fund raising there simply are no rules that can't be broken and no ethics that prevail.

    Obama's internet campaign started out innocently enough with basic e-mail networking , lists saved from previous party campaigns and from supporters who visited any of the Obama campaign web sites.
    Small contributions came in from these sources and the internet campaign staff were more than pleased by the results.

    Then, about two months into the campaign the daily contribution intake multiplied. Where was it coming from? One of the web site security monitors began to notice the bulk of the contributions were clearly coming in from overseas internet service providers and at the rate and frequency of transmission it was clear these donations were 'programmed' by a very sophisticated user.

    While the security people were not able to track most of the sources due to firewalls and other blocking devices put on these contributions they were able t o collate the number of contributions that were coming in seemingly from individuals but the funds were from only a few credit card accounts and bank electronic funds transfers.

    The internet service providers (ISP) they were able to trace were from Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries. One of the banks used for fund transfers was also located in Saudi Arabia.

    Another concentrated group of donations was traced to a Chinese ISP with a similar pattern of limited credit card charges.

    It became clear that these donations were very likely coming from sources other than Americ an voter s. This was discussed at length within the campaign and the decision was made that none of these donations violated campaign financing laws.

    It was also decided that it was not the responsibility of the campaign to audit these millions of contributions as to the actual source (specific credit card number or bank transfer account numbers) to insure that none of these internet contributors exceeded the legal maximum donation on a cumulative basis of many small donations. They also found the record keeping was not complete enough to do it anyway.

    This is a shocking revelation.

    We have been concerned about the legality of 'bundling' contributions after the recent exposure of illegal bundlers but now it appears we may have an even greater problem.

    I guess we should have been somewhat suspicious when the numbers started to come out. We were told (no proof offered) that the Obama internet contributions were from $10.00 to $25.00 or so.
    If the $200,000,000 is right, and the average contribution was $15.00, that would mean over 13 million individuals made contributions? That would also be 13 million contributions would need to be processed. How did all that happen?

    I believe the Obama campaign's internet fund raising needs a se rious, in depth investigation and audit. It also appears the whole question of internet fund raising needs investigation by the legislature and perhaps new laws to insure it complies not only with the letter of these laws, but the spirit as well.

    July 24, 2008 03:29 pm at 3:29 pm |
  4. Brandon Hillary PUMA 4 Mc

    Shouldnt obama be ahead of Mc Cain by double digits considering this has been dubbed a "democratic year" lol He cant even unite his own party how will he be a commander in chief. This europe trip is also a fairy tale and its clear that despite all this coverage he is not getting the bounce one would expect.
    No we wont........

    Hillary 2012

    July 24, 2008 03:30 pm at 3:30 pm |
  5. mrkusn

    John McCain would be smart to get Charlie Crist of FL on the ticket. That's 27 e-votes for him. Otherwise it is over for McCain.

    July 24, 2008 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  6. Valerie

    I agree 100% with Alex from NY

    July 24, 2008 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  7. For Obama

    Obama will EASILY Be Our Next President. Period.
    McAncient = BUSH III
    ...I am SOOOOO ready for a change!


    July 24, 2008 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  8. Michael Templer

    I really don't trust CNN where Obama is concerned

    they have consistently understated Obama's numbers through out this campaign and have clearly left out facts and answers that he has made to question they blew up without recrimination.

    Lou Dobbs show ran lies for days over bitter comment when the candidate apologized with in 24 hrs.

    I am skeptical of these Polsters as well

    because they are under sampling segments of the population that are
    going to vote this time and I mean more than blacks.

    that determines these polls

    while internet non-patriotic thugs continue to subvert this election

    with emails and ads about Obama without any PROOF

    this election is Obama's to lose

    unless John McCain of 2000 returns.

    one more thing on the polls I noticed time after time polls came out in states that Obama was favored always seem to tighten up at the last minute for some reason then he would blow Clinton out.

    Wisconsin said +6 actual +17
    Mississippi said +5 actual +27
    North Carolina +8 actual +14-15

    July 24, 2008 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  9. Florida voter


    July 24, 2008 03:33 pm at 3:33 pm |
  10. ClintonDem4Cynthia08

    Forget Obama. Voting for Cynthia makes sense

    July 24, 2008 03:34 pm at 3:34 pm |
  11. Canuck

    Considering the incredible amount of harm W and his fellow Republicans have inflicted on not only the United States, but countries around the world, I would be absolutely flabbergasted if a Republican was voted in once again.

    Americans have made this mistake twice. I really hope the third time is the charm, and you get it right. Otherwise it is not just your country that will end up suffering. Notice how the American recession has been felt around the world? It will only worsen with W the Sequel in the White House.

    July 24, 2008 03:35 pm at 3:35 pm |
  12. Ray

    People say Obama is the most suited for the job. How do you figure? He has a couple hundred advisors, he is a blabbering fool when he can't read from a teleprompter or is asked tough questions. At one point he said he had been to 57 states. He doesn't want to do town hall style debates with McCain because he himself and his campaign managers know he is a blabbering fool. You don't see those clips on the liberal, biased media outlet. Me not voting for him has nothing to do with his being bi-racial(he is not black). For those of you who think he is a savior, you are going to be very disappointed when you see what he really is, a Marxist. He wants more government involvement in our lives. Just remember, government is the biggest oppressor of human rights and freedoms. Wait until government health care is shoved down your throat and the system is overburdened leading to rationing. Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it and then some.

    July 24, 2008 03:35 pm at 3:35 pm |
  13. James Hussein, SC

    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge
    Vote for McSurge

    July 24, 2008 03:36 pm at 3:36 pm |
  14. Dr. Bob

    Obama is starting to fizzle out. I don't even think Clinton could save him now. President McCain will win by a lot : )

    July 24, 2008 03:36 pm at 3:36 pm |
  15. CLINTON 08 VP



    OBAMA (P) & CLINTON (VP) 2008-2014


    July 24, 2008 03:37 pm at 3:37 pm |
  16. Proud to be American

    No! the reason McCain is close to Obama is fear, fear of change and fear of an minority in the white house. I am so confused the world has embraced Obama why can't America do the same. Every African American that travels abroad state that the notice that their embrace by all not pre-judge due to their color.... I know change is coming – it is just hard to embrace. I truly wish Americans vote due to the policy and due to fear or a bias I have faith we are better than that. Mike from Texas I am going to look for more reliable maps... as this new poll sicken me.

    July 24, 2008 03:38 pm at 3:38 pm |
  17. Mark

    I don't know why CNN lists California as "Safe" for Obama. Hillary defeated Obama in Calif. and not all her supporters will vote Obama. Los Angeles County and Orange County have many Democrats who are vowing to vote for McCain. Take another poll.

    July 24, 2008 03:40 pm at 3:40 pm |
  18. Enlightened Voter

    Hey 57 States – I'm sorry but but for the majority of us who do work hard but don't make those millions that mccain wants to give tax relief to I will go with Obama who is actually going to give a poor smuck like me a tax break for a CHANGE. You see trickle down economics proved that it doesn't work, well unless your that wealthy 2% of this country which I ain't.

    July 24, 2008 03:42 pm at 3:42 pm |
  19. Michael, Michigan

    There are a few states on here that I don't think should be fully in McCain's column. According to 270towin.com and their polling, states like Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Indiana, and North Carolina should be toss-ups as well. And states like Arizona, Texas, Alaska, South Carolina, and Mississippi should be "leaning" McCain. Also, Washington, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Jersey should all be either "leaning" Obama or "Strong" Obama.

    They are giving McCain way too much credit. The only reason they moved Minnesota to "toss-up" and not "Strong" Obama is because they think McCain is going to pick Pawlenty as his VP. But if that happens, I don't think that'll change anything in Minnesota because I looked up the election results for him and he BARELY won there. So he's not even that popular!

    July 24, 2008 03:42 pm at 3:42 pm |
  20. shelly

    SSSSHHHHH!!!! I have a seceret!!!!!!!! McCain is really a democrat, like Lieberman is really a republican.............. McCain really does want Senator Obama in the White House as our next President. why else would he be opening his mouth and retelling history and making false statements. "The old man yells at cloud" is just a routine. So dems, sit back relax, enjoy the ride, thanks to McCain our nominee with be President!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

    July 24, 2008 03:45 pm at 3:45 pm |
  21. KG

    Obama's a weak candidate. Just face it. He's naive, untested, and inexperienced. People can see that despite all the obnoxious pro-
    Obama media coverage.

    July 24, 2008 03:45 pm at 3:45 pm |
  22. Tom

    "People are starting to take a look at Nobama's resume and whaddya know? Its only one page long, in 16 font, and with 2 inch margins."

    Ahahahaha that's great, and so true.

    July 24, 2008 03:46 pm at 3:46 pm |
  23. Ted van Tol

    Just seen the speech of Barack Obama in Berlin.

    I love that man!

    July 24, 2008 03:48 pm at 3:48 pm |
  24. Greg from Big Island

    Don't pay attention to polls until September to the end of October. I don't see a landslide by Obama or McCain because the country is still polarized. The traditional democratic and republican states will stay that way. However, I see anywhere from 2 to 3 states flipping. States like Ohio, VA, FLA, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico are the only states that can flip to Democrat or to Republican. I do see McCain flipping Michigan and keeping Ohio. I see Obama flipping VA and Colorado keeping New Mexico. It'll come down to Florida again

    July 24, 2008 03:49 pm at 3:49 pm |
  25. therealist

    How can this be? With all the biased news coverage of the progressive messiah Obama, you would think he would be ahead by double digits?

    Evidently Amercians aren't as stupid as the corrupt media believes..

    July 24, 2008 03:50 pm at 3:50 pm |
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