July 31st, 2008
11:21 AM ET
14 years ago

McCain narrows Obama's lead in key states

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/07/31/art.mccainstate.gi.jpg caption="McCain has narrowed Obama's lead in three key states."]

(CNN) - Barack Obama and John McCain are statistically tied in Florida and Ohio while Obama holds a clear advantage in Pennsylvania, new Quinnipiac polls out of those crucial battleground states Thursday show.

But in what could be a warning sign for Obama as voters begin to turn their attention to the general election race, Obama's lead appears to have dwindled, or barely remained steady, in all three states, even as the Democratic presidential candidate has enjoyed a wave of intense media coverage surrounding his trip abroad.

CNN Election Center: View the latest state polls

In Florida, Obama now holds a statistically insignificant 2-point lead over McCain, 46-44 percent. In a similar poll taken one month ago, Obama held a wider, and statistically significant, 47-43 percent advantage over the Arizona senator there. The difference appears to be a shift among independent voters, who now support McCain in Florida by a 5-point margin. In the June poll, Obama held the advantage among the same group of voters by a 10-percent advantage.

CNN's Electoral Map: Check out the lay of the land

In Ohio, the battleground state where a weak economy should give Democrats an advantage, Obama is ahead by a 2-point margin, 46-44 percent. That lead, also statistically insignificant, is down from the 6-point advantage the Illinois senator held there one month ago.

Obama's lead has also narrowed in Pennsylvania, though he still enjoys a clear edge there. Obama now leads McCain by a 7-point advantage, 49-42 percent, down from the 11 point advantage he had in June.

The poll was conducted from July 23-29, in the midst of Obama's trip abroad, and carries a margin of error of just under 3 points in each state.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Florida • John McCain • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Popular Posts
soundoff (202 Responses)
  1. Lj

    Looks like the fast moving Obama train wreck finally slowing down.

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  2. Unshrub

    Polls are meaningless at this point.

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  3. maria

    I hope all the people who vote for mcfossil looses there job and Ifact i hope mcidiot dies very soon.

    obama 08,12

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  4. John

    Says who? The 1000 people polled?

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  5. bill b

    all this talk about polls is just a joke, its the summer time and no one is really paying the campaigns any mind yet, just wait till after LABOR DAY then we'll see the real polls

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  6. Keith

    Again, these stupid polls don't mean anything. Polls schmolls. I don't believe them. Never have, never will. Obama will come out on top. Too many people in this country are sick of Republican politicians and agendas which have tarnished the reputation of this country.

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  7. zb

    McCain will become the next president. I don't believe the population is open minded enough to elect a black man. Prepare for the US economy and reputation on the world stage to go even further down the toilet.

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  8. carolflowery

    I have noticed lately how Obama's attendance to Rev Wrights sermons paid off...he sounds just like him...and he uses his same jestures, wow, what a pair they are, were, will be whatever

    July 31, 2008 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  9. j gannon

    If McCain is gaining ground, it means people love dirty, nasty politics.... they will deserve what they get if they elect him.......the further destruction of America!

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  10. David in NY

    Where do you guys come from? Obama is ahead in Florida!!! He's ahead in Ohio!!! All he has to do is win one of these and he's the next president! Moreover, he's way ahead in Pennsylvania. And McCain isn't ahead in any swing state that will put him over 270 electoral votes. Not one.

    As usual, however, this is great for the Republcans! Such nonsense. I wish you would report the real world, and not some insider press bubble talk. People out here have had it with the Republicans.

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  11. Enough!

    Too many meaningless polls. As we all know, most people under 30 do not have landlines, and are not polled. This is the key demographic that overwhelmingly supports Obama.

    I'd like to see age, gender, and region statistics for the polls taken. I think these polls are a media ploy to keep viewership and readership levels up throughout the summer, since people would not be as interested if they knew how much further ahead Obama is. Close races attract attention...

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  12. Illene hebert

    Why isn't anybody leary about Mccain havin "good loobyist" on his campaing staff knowing all to well that if elected these "good lobbyist" will claim having a direct line to anyone in his administration in selling their services to so call interest group that is clearly not in the best interest of the people is simply amazing

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  13. Ike (Atlanta, GA)

    Who Cares about these polls?

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  14. John McShame, Obama Is Going to Tax You & Cindy, but Not Me & 95% Americans Making < $250,000/Yr

    McSame maybe gaining a point or two with his stupid negative ads! But the bad news for old McSenile is that both Florida and Ohio are absolute must-wins for him. That’s not the case for Obama. Basically, Obama has moved Florida from Lean McSame two months ago to toss-up; has held his own in Ohio and continues to trump McSame with his high single-digit lead in Pennsylvania, which at some point will frustrate the McSame campaign, as they run out of negative talking points to smear & scare rural Pennsylvanians!!!!

    John McSame judgement to lead = brain paralysis!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  15. Democrat No More/San Diego

    Why is this a surprise? Obama has no experience and is all talk.

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  16. Deb, Allentown, PA

    What????? Ummm, Vanna, can we buy 45% of the country a CLUE?

    Honestly, I know Obama isn't necessarily the best candidate, but he represents the only hope we have of breaking out of the downward spiral the Bush Administration has given us over the past 7 1/2 years.

    Please do NOT let the GOP determine your vote based on their fear-mongering and hateful venom.

    However, on the off chance that McCain should win, I'm preparing to order bumper stickers, signs and pins that say "Don't blame me; I voted for BO".

    July 31, 2008 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  17. Jimmy

    People are starting to realize that Obama is an empty suit and that his politics are no different than any other liberal Dem. Now if McCain would get his act together, focus on offshore drilling and not on silly Paris Hilton comparisons, maybe he would actually take the lead in these states.

    July 31, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  18. maurice

    This is bad news because Oama has already decleared
    himself the winner.

    July 31, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  19. Ron democrat turned independent

    the more you listen to obama whine about the scare tactics that his rival is not using the more mccain makes sense. obama gives you a presentation without a detailed demonstration which is just idle conversation and people are tired of listening to the same old non substance speeches

    July 31, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  20. Jeremy

    Good work John!

    McCain '08

    July 31, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  21. CF Texas

    People don't realized that the old man McBush is got problem remembering things now a days and that's not good for a commander in chief. How can he be a good commander in chief when he does not even know what he should be doing when kept forgetting thins. Wake up people. On top of that, if he's elected, America will still be facing the down path we are in right now. It is clear that McBush is just gonna continue the Bush's policy and we don't need that, we need a new direction where we have not and ever seen in decades. Obama 08

    July 31, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  22. Ian

    75% of Americans want offshore drilling, but only 50% of them believe it will do any good.

    I bet if CNN took a poll of these two candidates, the results would be similar. People will vote for them, but won't expect anything good to come of it.

    July 31, 2008 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  23. Chris from San Antonio

    Sounds like the GOP strategy of "make fun of the other guy because we got nothing" is working on the dumb, er I mean rural, people.

    July 31, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  24. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    My continuing problems with these are: that they so far out, survey so few people, and don't really speak to the true demographics of a peticular state or the country as a whole. I am sure that some of this will change when it gets time for the conventions and closer to November.

    July 31, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  25. JB

    I do believe that the Obama Campaign needs to focus more on McCain and his connection to the policies of George Bush. The race remains close because McCain has gone negative (it is so sad that this works).

    It seems the focus has been put on Obama and McCain is getting a free ride. His campaign has no focus but Obama. It's sad to watch but appears to be working. The Democrats don't seem to know how to respond to the low blows that make them lose year after year.

    How McCain can be this close shows the lack of focus on McCain/Bush policies. The Democrats need a little more fight if they are to win this election.

    July 31, 2008 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
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