August 27th, 2008
04:05 PM ET
15 years ago

CNN poll: Obama takes double-digit lead in battleground state

DENVER (CNN) - A new national poll indicates Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in New Mexico, while the battle for the Colorado is a dead heat between the presumptive Democratic nominee and Republican rival John McCain.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Wednesday has the Obama up by 13 points in New Mexico, 53 to 40 percent. The state has had two close calls in the past two elections, with Vice President Al Gore slipping past George W. Bush in 2000 and President Bush edging out Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for years ago.

It’s a different story in Colorado, where the Democrats are holding their national convention this week. On the eve of Obama’s presidential acceptance speech in Denver, the poll suggests John McCain has a 47 percent to 46 percent advantage over Obama. Taking into account the survey’s sampling error, that’s a virtual dead heat. Bush won Colorado by eight points in 2000, and by five points in the last election.

"The Democrats chose Denver for their convention in the hopes of poaching Colorado from the GOP," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It appears that hasn't happened yet, although Thursday night's main event in Denver's football stadium may help Obama make some inroads." Holland notes that the poll indicates a huge gender gap in Colorado, with 55 percent of women going for Obama and 55 percent of men picking McCain.

It’s also a close race in Nevada, another Western state Obama’s campaign would like to turn from red to blue. President Bush won the state by narrow margins in the last two elections. But the poll indicates Obama has a five point margin over McCain, 49 to 44 percent.

Obama named Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate on Saturday. Although Biden is a longtime Delaware resident, he was born and raised in Pennsylvania. Has the Biden announcement made an impact in the Keystone State? Our new poll doesn’t show any indication of that so far. Obama holds a 5-point edge in our new survey, 48 to 43 percent. That’s pretty much where recent polls from other organizations have put the race.

"Pennsylvania voters tend to be a bit older than in most states, so it's good news for Obama that he's actually carrying senior citizens in the Keystone State. Nationally, seniors tend to pick McCain," Holland said. "But the bad news for Obama is that he's only pulling a quarter of the rural voters in Pennsylvania. That's a far worse showing for Obama than rural voters in Nevada or Colorado."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation surveys were conducted Sunday through Tuesday, with 670 registered voters in Colorado, 625 in Nevada, 659 in New Mexico and 669 in Pennsylvania questioned by telephone. The sampling error for each poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • CNN Polls • Extra • John McCain
soundoff (106 Responses)
  1. Dems Vote Big

    The polls have not been accurately representing the opinions of ALL voters. Those that use cell phones as their primary phone are not included – about 1/4 to 1/3 of the country! The end of the summer marked college students in transition as well.

    Obama will win big! Register and Vote people!!!!!

    August 27, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  2. Marlo

    The constant analyzing on CNN drives me nuts. I am down to only
    listening to the important speeches. The analysts talk as though
    they are above the rest of us and know exactly what the speakers
    could have said, would have said and didn't say. It is ridiculous!

    August 27, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  3. Will in Richmond, VA

    "Anonymous August 27th, 2008 4:13 pm ET

    I've got a single-digit response for CNN. Can you guess what it is?"

    I Roffled!!!

    August 27, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  4. Shari, NY

    There are thousands upon thousands of people who are not registered to vote. Churches in the south, especially, need to educate and encourage these people so that they can exercise their franchise. Can you imagine what the result would be if every eligible voter turned out?

    August 27, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  5. skinny dog

    Since when CNN polls can be trusted?

    August 27, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  6. Walter Greason

    Trust Obama, and seize victory!

    August 27, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  7. Valerie

    your all a joke-my cousin lives in southern New Mexico, and the one thing i have to say is: it's a dumpster. Anyone who can seriously state that if he wins NM, somehow he is going to win the Election. What has the democrats done for us? they have driven our gas prices to historic highs (hmm, Carter drove them up last time), we cannot defend ourselves against foreign invasions, they give us crappy movies, they work at UCLA, they come out with polls that say this, and say that. i live in Rochester, NY, and i can honestly say, wat in gods name has she done for New York? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, AND SCHUMER? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. if you think Obama is the Messiah, you've got something coming to you. Liberals are hippies and tree huggers, and those that sit high on their pedistals, thinking we have NO IDEA how to run our lives. leave us the hell alone, let us keep our dang money, our guns, our SUV's, and the government can defend us, make currency, take care of our roads, etc. i think that's all they need to do.

    MCCAIN 08
    MCCAIN 08
    MCCAIN 08


    August 27, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  8. Spanky

    When people speak of experience, my mind goes back to all the experience the current administration has. Judgement is the key, and the neo-cons don't seem to have any at all.

    Obama will make a stammering fool out of John McCain in the debates, and the show will be over.

    August 27, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  9. Sky

    I'm a Independent voter out of Phoenix, Arizona John McCain home state. The Arizona Republic shows John McCain down in his home state. How can he win the midwest states like Colorado, Mexico, or Navada. Go Obama 09

    August 27, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  10. Stephina

    Regardless of what any poll states, McCain will be the next President.

    August 27, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  11. vb

    Get used to this Republicans...Swiftboating will not work in this election

    August 27, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  12. ana

    I am so sorry to tell you...NEVADA will not be an obama state..

    GO PUMAS!!

    August 27, 2008 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  13. Debby

    Big deal this is Richardson's state and he should bring in for Obama.

    CNN whats what deleting the posts. You are in no position to lose viewers as O'Reily even beat you the other night with 7 hundred th. more and they aren't even on the floor.

    August 27, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  14. Midwest swing stater

    What a huge surprise!

    If Obama gets N Mex and Nevada, McCain can take both Ohio and Virg and Obama can still win.

    269-269 is a distinct possibly.

    August 27, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  15. bridgette

    Are you kidding me. The next article is tight races in battleground states. I think it is time for all of us to stop getting our news from these people. Because either they are crazy or they want us to believe we are crazy.

    August 27, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  16. Desmond Sequeira

    The USA will be dead stupid to vote McSame. Don't let prejudice get the better of you!

    August 27, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  17. Geoffrey Iyamah

    The Republicans knows how to squander the nation's economy and the Democrats are expert in rebuilding it, now that the Bush administration (Republican) has battered our economy we need Obama (a Democrats) to rebuild it, Just like Bill Clinton did after the old Bush.

    August 27, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  18. Xango 08 & 12

    CNN changes the polls by the seconds
    if you read them carefully
    they CNN want us to think we are dumb

    the polls who cares, about them,

    specially if they are from CNN dont and I repeat DONT put attention
    CNN is Clinton National News
    they want the clintons back
    and or mcbush

    that is how this enquirer makes its money

    yesterday they said Obama was way behind, today double digits

    DONT BELIEVE CNN they want to influence our election,
    CNN want McClinton McBush and McCAin in power

    so they keep the 1% rich very rich


    August 27, 2008 05:20 pm at 5:20 pm |
  19. pa

    well that should give him 5 votes wow what a loser

    August 27, 2008 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  20. Sandy

    POW – I read an article on him that said he was "transported to a private apartment with vietnamese women to take care of him" when his fellow prisoners thought he was in solitary confinement.

    There are lots of documents on John McCain the Songbird.

    August 27, 2008 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  21. Roofin Reality, Houston, Tx.

    Well, I'll try a simple one –
    If Obama keeps Kerry's states, and then adds
    Iowa – where he's already projected to win
    New Mexico – where's he's got a strong position
    and Colorado -where it is very tight,
    he wins with 273 electoral votes.
    If he doesn't get VColorado, but gets Nevada instead, he has 269 and then the House of Reps puts him in (kind of like the Supreme Court in 2000 with President Bush, except the House has explicit authority to act in the case of a tie)
    And, he's still competitive in Montana, so that would give him 272 with Nevada.
    Didn't say anything about Ohio or Florida, the former where he's slightly up and the latter where he's slightly trailing.
    And then there's Virginia where the state will be controlled by Dems once Warner is elected.
    So, as the dude told us, it's a different map this year. I think Obama will rewrite it and McCain will be history.

    Come on Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. We need you.

    August 27, 2008 05:27 pm at 5:27 pm |
  22. The Bottom Line

    National polls are useless. We do not have a national election. Electoral delegates are awarded at the state level.

    August 27, 2008 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  23. McBum you're out!

    McCain will lose by a landslide and they know it. Why do you think so many republicans senators are skipping their convention. The trunout will be extermely high for Democrats. Especially in this election year, more 18 to 29 years old will showup to cast their votes than ever before.

    August 27, 2008 05:33 pm at 5:33 pm |
  24. Roger

    Most of the people who send in to this don't deserve to vote. People who hate McCain and love Obama are fools. Absolute fools. But most of them probably have plenty of time to be on the computer because they are on the government dole. No, that's not Bob Dole you idiots.

    August 27, 2008 05:35 pm at 5:35 pm |
  25. Don Colony14Author, Peruibe, Brasil

    McCain/Hutchison in a landslide!

    August 27, 2008 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
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