September 15th, 2008
12:45 PM ET
14 years ago

CNN Electoral Map: Minnesota now a toss-up

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption="CNN now considers Minnesota a tossup state."](CNN) - As evidence of a tightening presidential race mounts, CNN is altering its Electoral Map, shifting Minnesota and its ten electoral votes from leaning towards Barack Obama to a toss up state.

With the shift of Minnesota, CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 233 electoral votes and John McCain 189. There are 116 electoral votes up for grabs; 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

A CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted two weeks ago had Obama up 12 points over McCain in Minnesota. But a Minneapolis-St.Paul Star Tribune poll released Sunday suggests the race is tied, with each candidate getting the support of 45 percent of Minnesota voters questioned in the survey. The poll was conducted entirely after the end of the Republican National Convention, which was held in St. Paul, Minnesota.

"Events are moving so quickly in the presidential race that polls taken before the Republican convention probably aren't accurate reflections of what is going on in swing states today," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "The pace of the campaign means that we may see more shifts, in either direction, in states like Minnesota."

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Minnesota
soundoff (186 Responses)
  1. Tony - Boston

    According to the NY Post, new internal polling in both parties shows that Obama has lost 18 points to McCain since June in New York state. It looks like NY is now in play along with its 31 EV.

    If Obama has to spend money and time campaigning in New York to shore up his numbers, he can't possibly win the election if he's that close in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia. If New York does go for McCain, it could signal the very beginning stages of an electoral realignment in the north east.

    September 15, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  2. Wake Up Zombies!!!

    McCain will probably trot out his trophy VP now and she'll say something cute and everyone will oooh and ahhh and the republicans numbers will go up some more.

    September 15, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  3. Greg-Mpls

    I'm in Minnesota and I'm not buying it. I see Obama signs everywhere and I've thus far seen a single McCain sign. We only wished he had taken Pawlenty with him in to never never land

    September 15, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  4. Know the facts

    Just an observation: CNN notes that THEIR poll had Obama up by 12 points, but ANOTHER, COMPLETELY DIFFERENT poll has the race tied in Minnesota. I've NEVER heard of anyone using two completely different polls to make the kind of statement that CNN's making here.

    Now, if you do the CNN poll again, and it shows that the race is tied, it would make sense to declare it tied. But until you do another CNN poll, how can you know? Different polling groups get different results, sometimes wildly different results, all the time. Another CNN poll would probably show a tighter race, since McCain seems to have gotten a convention bounce (which seems to be going down now), but, again, it may not show a tied race. In fact, another CNN poll could even show that Obama's still up by 12. The bottom line is that you won't know until you do another CNN poll. And until you do that, you should hesitate to make any strong declarations about the state of the race in MN.

    September 15, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  5. Obama- Next Stop.. White House

    Whatever....keep playin with the numbers if you like if it makes you feel better. We know know what the final tally will be.

    President Barack Obama 2008 thru 2016

    September 15, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  6. Lone Star Wolf

    Come on McCAIN smoke this snake on the ground.

    September 15, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  7. Spencer from VA

    Some of these states are not even close. My state of VIRGINIA for example is a democratic state.

    Mark my words, VIRGINIA will become a blue state.


    September 15, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  8. Dee Jay a young republican


    to bad we will be the worst country in this world if McCain is president

    Dumb raciest White People

    September 15, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  9. Reject the slime




    September 15, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  10. no fear

    Mr McCain is out of touch on many, many levels.

    I believe he must, on some level, be doing what he thinks best.
    At this juncture, however, it is simply not enough.

    September 15, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  11. Obama-Junkie, IL

    It's time for the Obama camp and DNC to go after McCain HARD on the economy.

    There should be an ad going up tommorrow using McCain's own words against him. I can see it now:

    Announcer: After nearly 8 years we've seen the collapse of Enron, the largest increase in the national debt ever, over 600,000 jobs lost in 2008, and the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

    Then cut to a cut to GW Bush's comments about the economy being strong (from the past to even TODAY)and McCain's comments about the economy being strong (from the past to even TODAY). Then the ad ends with a picture of GW Bush and McCain embracing with announcer saying "The economy strong? Where have we heard that one before? America can't afford 4 more years of this!"

    September 15, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  12. Adam

    Why do people still listen to polls? Did you learn nothing from the last two elections? Polls mean NOTHING! I was born and raised in Minnesota and we are not that stupid. McCain has a snowballs chance in Wisconsin, er, hell of winning

    September 15, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  13. Lannie

    People are suffering. It will be interesting to see if they stick with what got them here or will they step out for a new direction. . .


    September 15, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  14. Jerry Ohio

    McCain is another Bush he stated that the economy is strong this is the worst economy do out the bush years....MCSAME is out of touch with American people

    Obama/Biden 08

    September 15, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  15. michelle

    I think a lot of white men are just waiting for an excuse not to vote for a black candidate, serve them right if their pocket books get hit hard, because if Mccain gets elected, it will be a economic disaster for this country, McCain is worth $100 million, what does he care about regular people's struggle

    September 15, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  16. Ian Minneapolis, MN

    Just letting people know, this is a bunch of crap. How come EVERY SINGLE POLL out there says they are completely tied, according to CNN? I'm from Minneapolis MN, and I can tell you that the support for Obama TOTALLY outweighs McCain's support from what I have seen. There are tons of billboards and signs everywhere with Obama and Bidens name all over it. Don't worry people CNN is just trying to scare you as usual and trying to stir the pot a little bit. it's called propaganda folks. Don't believe the hype.

    September 15, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  17. Candy West Virginia

    Trust me, the polls mean NOTHING! Obama will win in a landslide! I truly hope the inaccurate polls continue in mccain's favor, it will prompt more democrats to get out and vote and we all know the dems outnumber the repuglicans. Besides mccain and palin are pathological liars and people are starting to ralize that. There was an anti Palin rally this weekend in Alaska with over 1500 in attendence. THose people know her up there and apparently they don't like what they've seen. Of course CNN didn't do a story on that but mccain and palin may not even win Alaska.

    September 15, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  18. Never Barak Obama (PUMA)

    Are Americans that dumb to believe everything Obama says.....

    September 15, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  19. Oregon calling

    Not on topic but they close comments too soon!

    Some "poorer" people do not have access to computers and/or the internet. I live in a town where you have to live on the right street in order to get a figgin library card. That said, they do not have cable tv either. Think of the under privileged & simple minds that will believe the attack ads. The MSM needs to indeed grow a pair and let ALL citizens become informed of facts

    Obama / Biden 08

    September 15, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  20. Stacy from Loudoun County VA

    It's all about the ratings man...close ratings means more money. It is a shame that the media has become more like Don King than Walter Kronkite. What is that, Don Henely's song "Dirty Laundry" playing in the background?

    September 15, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  21. Mohammed from Minnesota

    WHO in the world said my state is a toss up. I think CNN should look at whatever data they have that allowed them to get that conclusion because Minnesota is not a toss up, trust me, and just because we have a republican governor does not mean a republican candidate will win here, The governor is not like very much and he only won the election by a slim margine. Obama will win Minnesota by 13%..he kind of beat clinton by 80% or something here so what does that tell you about his popularity here

    September 15, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  22. troy of Mississippi

    Ii is time, Obame will go up by ten points by 1 Oct 08. tld

    September 15, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  23. Tony

    I guess Minnesota can now be added to the list of the most f'd up states in the country.

    Has to be the easily led, easily fooled women, especially white women, who are buying into the McCain and Palin b.s.!

    September 15, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  24. G W B

    O B A M A' S,,,,,,,,,,,NE X T,,,,,,,,,M O V E:::::M O R E,,,,,,,,,R A C E,,,,,C A R D,

    P O O R ,,,,,,,,M E

    September 15, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  25. Steve, New York, New York

    Should McCain get elected and (heaven forbid) anything happened to him so that Palin becomes president.

    Are people really kidding?? Maybe if I wanted to send my kinds to bible study (or to learn how to clean guns), then Palin would be perfect . ..
    . . .that is trouble, America . . the NEO-CONS would have another poodle to walk around (one even dumber and more malleable than Bush # 43).

    September 15, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
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